Odaily星球日报讯 法兴银行在一份报告中称，即将公布的美国经济数据可能证实就业市场正在稳步降温，并为美联储降息和美元走软提供支持。"如果趋势是劳动力市场逐渐放松，那么将指向降息，但不会以目前预期的速度降息，"法兴银行外汇策略师表示。他们说，这可能会给外汇市场注入一些波动，不过该行仍建议，除非就业市场完全停止放松，否则在任何反弹时应卖出美元。（金十）

法兴银行：若劳动力市场降温，将为美联储降息和美元走软提供支持

Odaily Odaily News: Societe Generale said in a report that upcoming U.S. economic data may confirm that the job market is steadily cooling and provide support for the Fed&#39;s rate cuts and a weaker dollar. &quot;If the trend is that the labor market is gradually easing, then it will point to rate cuts, but not at the rate currently expected,&quot; said Societe Generale foreign exchange strategists. They said this could inject some volatility into the foreign exchange market, but the bank still recommends selling the dollar on any rebound unless the job market stops easing completely. (Jinshi)

Societe Generale: If the labor market cools, it will support the Fed's rate cuts and a weaker dollar

According to a report by David Meier, an economist at Baosheng Group, if the expectation of a significant interest rate cut in the United States weakens, the US dollar may rebound, but the increase will be limited. He stated: "We do not believe the US dollar will return to the highs of the end of 2022, as high valuation and falling interest rates pose significant resistance to its trend." Currencies such as the British pound, Australian dollar, and New Zealand dollar are expected to continue to strengthen against the US dollar, as the pace of interest rate cuts in these countries may not be as fast as in the United States. He stated that, in particular, the interest rates of the Bank of England and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand by the end of the year may be higher than that of the United States. (Jinshi)

Julius Baer: The dollar may rebound if expectations of a sharp rate cut weaken, but the gains will be limited

Source: Zhou Ziheng

Every August, central bank governors from around the world gather in the ski resort town of Jackson Hole in the American Midwest, Wyoming, to attend the "symposium" organized by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. The bankers take this opportunity to discuss monetary policy and its effectiveness in "managing the economy," particularly in "controlling" inflation and providing the financial system with an appropriate amount of "liquidity."

This year's symposium comes at a time when the Federal Reserve is facing a dilemma as to whether it should lower the "policy" interest rate, as the economy shows signs of cooling, but the inflation rate is still "stubbornly" declining towards the Federal Reserve's 2% target. The so-called policy interest rate is the (...)

Fed rate cuts only stimulate the stock market, not the economy

Odaily Planet Daily reported that Hong Kong Financial Secretary Paul Chan wrote that recent remarks by US Federal Reserve officials have rekindled market expectations of a decline in US interest rates, but the timing and extent of the interest rate cut, as well as its impact on easing pressure on the asset market and local investment sentiment, still need to be carefully assessed. Looking ahead, it is still necessary to fully strengthen economic momentum and make preparations for medium and long-term development, including accelerating the development and application of innovation and technology, empowering traditional industries, and improving competitiveness through more innovative technology applications or new business models to attract more new customers and consumption. It also promotes the leading role of scientific research and innovation in economic development, adding impetus to the Hong Kong economy.