BTC is about to face its most challenging month, September. September returns have historically been negative, and this year has added additional pressures, including expectations for the US tech sector after Nvidia's earnings forecast, the Federal Reserve's policy decision, and the upcoming US presidential election debate (with Harris versus Trump).
Many events in September will have a significant impact on BTC's price trend.
Nvidia's earnings forecast was released, and its market value evaporated by 196.7 billion on Thursday
After Nvidia's financial report was released, many investment banks raised Nvidia's target price, and 61 analysts gave Nvidia an average target price of $143.44. Although the seller's market is happy, the buyer's market is not buying it. On August 29, while most technology stocks rose, Nvidia fell 6.38%, and its market value evaporated by 196.7 billion in a single day.
From the end of 2022 until the second quarter of 2024, there was a strong correlation between Nvidia and BTC prices. However, Nvidia’s stock has surged in the recent AI rebound, but BTC has not kept up. Both asset prices are breaking new lows, indicating a deeper consolidation.
The US employment data is about to be released, and the market is paying close attention to the job market
The market is about to respond to the US employment data released on September 6. At the end of 2022, most economists predicted that the US economy would fall into recession in 2023, but Matrix on Target was optimistic and predicted that the US inflation rate would fall from 8% to 3%. However, this time, the Fed's focus seems to be solely on controlling inflation. Fed Chairman Powell emphasized this shift in his speech at the Jackson Hole conference, saying that the job market is the main focus.
US interest rate hike/cut decision affects BTC trend
During the 2018/2019 interest rate hike cycle, BTC struggled for a while, but rebounded strongly after the Fed stopped raising interest rates. However, after the rate cut, BTC experienced a brief rebound and then gradually fell back, and the overall trend is still biased downward.
Harris polls 48% higher than Trump, election battle is confusing
According to Jinshi Data, a Wall Street Journal poll showed that Harris' approval rating was 48%, while Trump's approval rating was 47%, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5%. Since the Harrises do not hold any crypto assets and have not publicly stated their views on crypto assets, the market is paying close attention to the Harris team's attitude towards crypto assets.
On August 27, Trump said on social media that he had reached an agreement with ABC to participate in the presidential debate held by ABC in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania on September 10, when he will debate with Harris. This debate will affect the price of BTC.
Some of the above views come from Matrix on Target. Contact us to obtain the full report of Matrix on Target.
Disclaimer: The market is risky and investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset trading can be extremely risky and unstable. Investment decisions should be made after carefully considering personal circumstances and consulting financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions based on the information provided in this content.
