Since Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $73,000 in March this year, it has always lacked upward momentum. The repeated market declines have gradually dampened investors' enthusiasm, making people doubt whether Bitcoin still has hope of ushering in a new round of outbreaks.
In this regard, Daxian believes that in the context of the US Federal Reserve having already loosened its stance and is likely to start cutting interest rates in September, any current pullbacks in the US stock market and cryptocurrency market will be short-lived. Powell's recent remarks have been relatively dovish, and he has made it clear that now is the time to lower interest rates. Although there are only three interest rate decisions left this year, the market currently believes that there will still be four interest rate cuts in 2024. As Powell and the Federal Reserve start the rate cut cycle, the increase in global liquidity will ultimately push up risk assets, with cryptocurrencies being the first to be affected.
Bitcoin rebounded to around $61,144 yesterday, and then entered a volatile downward trend, but failed to fall below the previous low of $57,778. As of the time of writing, it was quoted at $59,537, down nearly 0.24% in the past 24 hours.
Bitcoin four-hour chart
First of all, according to the Bollinger Band indicator in the Bitcoin 4H level chart, the current price is between the middle and lower tracks of the Bollinger Band, close to the middle track, which means that in the short term, the price may rebound to the middle track or even the upper track. The upper and lower tracks of the Bollinger Band are expanding, indicating that market volatility is increasing.
Secondly, according to the KDJ indicator in the Bitcoin 4H level chart, the K-line value and the D-line value show signs of moving to the bottom, and the J-line value has bottomed out and rebounded, indicating that the market may have a rebound trend in the short term, but it should be noted that the current rebound strength is not strong enough, and there may be a period of shock before the rebound starts.
Finally, according to the MACD indicator in the Bitcoin 4H level chart, the DIF line has crossed the DEA line downward in the previous cycles to form a death cross. Currently, the values of the two lines are tending to be flat, and the MACD green bar chart has turned from green to red, indicating that the seller's power is weakening. If the red bar continues to grow in the future, the price may usher in a rebound.
Bitcoin one-hour chart
First of all, according to the Bollinger Band indicator in the Bitcoin 1H level chart, the price is currently between the middle and upper tracks of the Bollinger Band, close to the upper track, indicating that the price has a certain upward pressure. The upper and lower tracks are currently slightly flat, indicating that market volatility is relatively reduced, and a shock consolidation pattern may appear in the short term.
Secondly, according to the KDJ indicator in the Bitcoin 1H level chart, the three KDJ line values are all in the high overbought area, and the J line value has turned downward. There may be a risk of pullback or consolidation in the short term.
Finally, according to the MACD indicator in the Bitcoin 1H level chart, the DIF line is gradually approaching the DEA line, but it is still below the 0 axis. The MACD red bar chart begins to appear, but it is relatively short, which shows that the bullish force is beginning to increase, but it is not strong enough. If the DIF line continues to move upward and crosses the DEA line to form a golden cross, this is a bullish signal, but it should be noted that the current MACD pattern is still below the 0 axis, which means that the rebound may be limited.
Comprehensive analysis shows that according to the Bitcoin 4H chart, the KDJ indicator shows signs of bottoming out and the green bar chart of MACD is shortening, which means that the Bitcoin price will rebound in the short term. However, since the price is still between the middle and lower tracks of the Bollinger Bands, there is still a downside risk in the market, and the rebound may be resisted. According to the Bitcoin 1H chart, the KDJ indicator is in the overbought area, and the upper track of the Bollinger Bands puts a certain pressure on the price. Bitcoin may have a certain adjustment or sideways trend in the short term. Although MACD shows that the bullish force is increasing, it is not strong enough, and more confirmation signals need to be waited for in the short term.
To sum up, the following suggestions are given for reference
Long Bitcoin at 58700-59000, target 60300-60800, defense 58300.
Writing time: (2024-08-30, 19:30)
(Text-Daxian Talks about Coins)
