Bitcoin Counts Down to Q4, Typically the Best Performing Quarter of the Year

Bitcoin (BTC) price has seen mixed quarterly returns over the past five years. However, a notable pattern across these periods is that BTC typically delivers positive returns from October to December.

With September approaching, history suggests BTC could be on the cusp of a bull run. Will this be the case?

Also Read: Bitcoin's recent sluggish performance predicts a market Dip

What History Says About Bitcoin's Q4 Performance

Historically, Bitcoin prices have not typically increased in the third quarter (Q3). However, according to a chart Chia by analyst AXEL Adler, Bitcoin has seen an Medium increase of 26% in the fourth quarter (Q4) since 2019.

For example, in October 2023, BTC was trading at around $26,000. By December 2023, it had risen to $44,000. In contrast, Bitcoin failed to achieve such gains in 2022 due to the collapse of FTX , which sent the entire market into a downtrend.

In 2021, Bitcoin rose from $40,000 to $69,000 from September to November, before falling slightly in December. A similar pattern occurred in 2020, when BTC doubled in price in Q4.

If this pattern holds true, Bitcoin prices could be poised for a significant rally after September ends. To assess this potential, it is important to XEM whether current market conditions are supportive.

BeInCrypto specifically XEM at the on-chain Realized Price, which represents the Medium price the entire market has paid for Bitcoin. Historically, this price has Vai as an on-chain support or resistance level for BTC.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin's Realized Price is $31,400. This value Vai as a major support for Bitcoin, as shown by the CryptoQuant chart below. For the Realized Price to act as resistance, it needs to be equal to or higher than Bitcoin's market price.

BTC market price is still much higher than Realized Price, showing that Bitcoin still has high upside potential. It is predicted that a significant price increase may occur in Q4 and before the end of this year.

BTC Price Prediction : Could Rise 24%, But This Condition Needs to Be Met First

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $59,551, down from $64,452. Notably, BTC is hovering around its 200-day exponential moving Medium (EMA), a key technical indicator that measures trends. The 200 EMA (blue) provides a look at the long-term trend.

When the 200 EMA is above the price of Bitcoin, it usually slows down the uptrend or the price will fall further. On the contrary, when the 200 EMA is below the price, it facilitates Bitcoin to grow. Currently, if BTC fails to break above the 200 EMA, its price could drop to $57,818 or even lower to $54,474.

The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator, which tracks the money flow of an asset, also supports the possibility of a price decline. The CMF indicator has fallen, indicating a decrease in buying pressure.

However, if the aforementioned past performance repeats itself, BTC could surge 24% in the early months of Q4, pushing the coin’s price to $71,974. On the other hand, if the market sees a significant drop in Capital, this prediction could be invalidated, potentially sending Bitcoin’s price down to $49,068.

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