1. Attention Value-Market Key Points
1. Market conditions
(1) Macro environment:
The Fed's inflation index remains low, paving the way for a rate cut in September
The Federal Reserve's inflation gauge continued to remain low last month, further showing that price pressures are steadily cooling, setting the stage for the Fed to cut interest rates in September. Prices rose just 0.1% from May to June, according to the Commerce Department, and the year-on-year inflation rate fell to 2.5% from 2.6%. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.2% during the period and remained at 2.6% year-on-year. Economists pay close attention to core prices because they are generally more indicative of future inflation trends.
The overall data showed that the worst inflation cycle in four decades is coming to an end, and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that the recent cooling of price data has strengthened his confidence that inflation will return to the 2% target. Lower interest rates and inflation, coupled with a solid job market, could improve Americans' views on the economy and affect the upcoming presidential election.
In addition, consumer spending rose slightly by 0.3% in June, although income growth of 0.2% was lower than the 0.4% growth in the previous month. The report showed that average income adjusted for inflation was 1% higher than the same period last year. The Federal Reserve is about to consider a rate cut at its mid-September meeting, and the market generally expects that the decision is almost a done deal. Economists believe that Powell may express confidence in the rate cut at the meeting.
Food prices rose just 0.1% in June, while energy prices fell 2.1%. Despite the decline in inflation, the cost of daily necessities is still higher than it was three years ago, leading voters to be dissatisfied with the government's economic management. Despite continued economic growth, with hiring concentrated in the health care and government sectors, the unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.1%.
(2) Web3 field:
Jeff Ren attended WebX2024 to discuss OKX Ventures’ investment strategy for crypto-native projects
Jeff Ren, partner of OKX Ventures, recently participated in a roundtable forum on the theme of "VC Perspective" at the WebX2024 conference in Tokyo. The forum was hosted by Alex Shin, founder of Shin Labs, and other guests included well-known Web3 investors such as Nao Kitazawa, partner of Eight Roads Ventures, and Diana Biggs, partner of 1kx. During the discussion, Jeff emphasized OKX Ventures' focus on "crypto-native" projects, pointing out that the team focuses on the actual utility of tokens in the blockchain ecosystem when investing, and hopes that these tokens can be integrated into the Web3 ecosystem.
He also mentioned that OKX Ventures will maintain moderate participation and will not over-intervene in projects, and believes that the development of the Bitcoin ecosystem will bring more financial operations and value creation. Jeff encouraged practitioners to maintain their belief in innovation, find like-minded partners, and jointly promote the development of blockchain technology. He firmly believes that real innovation has just begun, and OKX Ventures will continue to support innovative projects.
More than 110 companies are developing bitcoin businesses in Africa
Bitcoin Magazine recently pointed out that more than 110 companies on the African continent are actively building Bitcoin-related businesses. These Bitcoin activities are widely distributed in Nigeria, South Africa, Kenya, Uganda and other countries, covering areas including technology development, mining, education, financial services and media.
In recent years, Africa's cryptocurrency market has been developing rapidly, despite regulatory challenges and economic instability. Communities in many countries are increasingly accepting Bitcoin, especially in South Africa and Nigeria, which are at the top of the global cryptocurrency adoption index. For example, despite relatively strict government regulation of cryptocurrencies, Nigeria's peer-to-peer Bitcoin trading market is very active.
2. Hot events
(1) Macro environment:
l Expectations of a Fed rate cut increase: Traders bet on a 25 basis point rate cut in September
Traders increased their bets that the Fed will start cutting interest rates next month, expecting a 25 basis point rate cut rather than a larger 50 basis point cut. The expectation stems from the Fed's July inflation indicator showing rising inflation in line with economists' expectations, even as consumer spending remains strong. Traders also expect the Fed to cut interest rates by a cumulative 1 percentage point in its final three meetings of the year. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said last week that "now is the time to ease policy."
(2) Web3 field:
Telegram is being investigated by the EU due to the number of users
According to a report from the Financial Times, the European Union is investigating whether Telegram has violated the Digital Services Act (DSA) by failing to provide accurate user numbers. EU officials suspect that Telegram may have deliberately underreported the number of users in the EU to stay below the threshold of 45 million users and avoid stricter regulation.
The investigation runs parallel to a French probe into alleged criminal activity at Telegram, which led to the arrest of its founder Pavel Durov, who Telegram said had "nothing to hide".
Telegram said in February that it had 41 million users in the EU. According to the DSA, Telegram was supposed to provide updated figures this month, but it only said the number of users was "well below 45 million." EU officials said the failure to provide new data put Telegram in violation of regulations, adding that the investigation may find that its actual number of users exceeds the threshold for "very large online platforms."
Services designated as “very large online platforms” will face heightened compliance requirements, including content moderation, third-party audits, and data-sharing obligations with the European Commission.
OKX releases investigation results and explanation of FLOKI's pledge loan mechanism
OKX officially released an investigation and explanation on the FLOKI pledge loan mechanism. OKX's current pledge loan is a C2C market. When the platform's loan amount and deposit amount reach 100%, the automatic currency exchange mechanism will be triggered. The triggering of this mechanism has nothing to do with the pledge risk rate of a single user, but is based on the loan and deposit situation of the entire platform.
When the amount of borrowed coins reaches the amount of deposited coins, the platform will stop new borrowing. The trigger of this automatic currency swap was due to FLOKI's on-chain activities, which led to a large number of redemptions by depositors, resulting in a decrease in the amount of deposited coins. Regarding the issue of user notification, OKX stated that after reaching the automatic currency swap baseline, the platform will notify potentially affected users in advance via email. However, due to problems with the email system, some users failed to receive the warning email in time. Users can contact OKX customer service for feedback.
Zypher Network supports Cocos Creator engine to promote the development of Telegram games based on TON chain
Zypher Network announced on social media that it supports developers to use the Cocos Creator engine for front-end development and access ZK components to quickly build Telegram games based on the TON chain. The innovation of this platform enables Web2 games on Telegram to be quickly transformed into decentralized applications (dApps), effectively lowering the threshold for developers to develop games on the TON network.
Zypher Network is a game asset protocol based on zero-knowledge proof (ZK) and AI-driven, designed to ensure the security and verifiability of game data, supporting the Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM) and TON ecosystem. It is the first project to conduct ZK verification on the TON chain and has realized ZK game development on the chain. In addition, Zypher Network has established strategic partnerships with multiple ZK projects, including Risc Zero, Gevulot, Ingonyama and Polyhedra, and plans to launch the ZK-Proof mining network in the next two months.
3. Hot topic narrative
What is the story behind Story Pretocol, which raised 140 million yuan in funding ?
On August 21, 2024, Story Protocol, an intellectual property blockchain project, announced the completion of a $80 million Series B financing led by a16z. The investors in this round are strong, and together with the seed round and Series A financing led by a16z last year, Story Protocol's total financing has reached $140 million.
At first glance, Story's technology stack is nothing special. Through the three technical levels of Story Network (L1), Proof of Creativity Protocol (smart contracts) and programmable IP licensing, it aims to improve the "time-consuming and costly" problem of intellectual property rights relying on traditional laws in the Web2 world, thereby achieving its ultimate goal of "IP Lego". The reason why a16z is willing to lead such a huge round of financing may not be the technology itself, but Story's team, philosophy and its resources in the entertainment industry.
Story's CEO and co-founder Seung Yoon Lee graduated from Oxford University and worked in the Korean National Assembly and the US House of Representatives, and worked for two newspapers. His previous online fiction platform Radish Fiction was acquired by Kakao for $440 million, and has resources in government, media, and capital. Story's technical development director and co-founder Jason Zhao graduated from Stanford University with a major in computer science and worked at DeepMind.
Story's goal is to protect the creators' ownership, which coincides with the concept of "readable, writable, and ownable" emphasized by a16z partner Chris Dixon. Both parties attach great importance to the concept of ownership. In addition, the Story team may have strong resources in the Korean entertainment industry. It is rumored that one of its angel investors is a well-known Korean entertainment company. If the influential KPOP IP can be introduced into the crypto field, its potential value will not be underestimated.
In summary, Story Protocol has an excellent team background, its philosophy is in line with the lead investment institution, and it has strong Korean entertainment resources, which seems to support its $140 million financing. However, Jason Zhao said in an interview with Fortune that Story is unlikely to attract IP giants like Disney because traditional IP still does not attach enough importance to the use of artificial intelligence for creation. In short, the subsequent development of Story is worth looking forward to, and its mainnet is expected to be launched later this year, which deserves continued attention.
4. Potential Catalysts
lExchange Bitcoin reserves hit a new year low near $60,000, which may be beneficial to the bull market
Odaily Odaily reported that the Bitcoin reserves of cryptocurrency exchanges have dropped to a new supply low, which may become an important catalyst for Bitcoin to retest and break through the $60,000 mark. Gaah, a contributor to CryptoQuant, pointed out in an analysis report on August 29 that as the exchange Bitcoin reserves hit a new low this year, this may indicate that the selling pressure in the market is easing. If demand continues to rise, it will help drive the bull market.
Since January 1, 2024, the exchange's Bitcoin reserves have decreased by about 12.9%, and the total Bitcoin reserves of all major cryptocurrency exchanges are currently 2.62 million. The transfer of Bitcoin to cold wallets usually means that investors are committed to holding the asset for the long term and are optimistic about its future price potential. The increase in long-term holders will make the market more robust and reduce the possibility of large-scale panic selling.
2. Attention Value-Hot Projects
1. Social media hot spots
Solana has received widespread attention on social media platforms recently, and its popularity continues to rise. The Solana ecosystem has developed rapidly in recent years and has become one of the main players in the cryptocurrency market. As of 2024, Solana's TVL reached approximately US$4.8 billion, a 20-fold increase from 2023. The average daily active addresses of the Solana network reached 1.3 million, and the monthly active addresses exceeded 15.6 million, a significant increase from 2023. In the second quarter, Solana's total economic value increased by 53% month-on-month to US$151 million, showing its continued activity in the cryptocurrency market. These data show that the Solana ecosystem showed strong growth momentum in 2024, attracting more attention from developers and investors.
Key projects:
IO
Recently, io.net launched a staking plan, which may have a positive impact on the price. Recently, people are optimistic about io.net's application prospects in the DePIN field, and the market sentiment is relatively optimistic. It is worth noting that io.net has reached a strategic cooperation with Chainbase. The two parties will jointly promote the application of AI large models on the blockchain and accelerate the development of the io.net ecosystem.
2. KOL attention
The projects with the fastest KOL growth:
The projects with the most KOLs today are FET, TAO, BNB, CREO, HEX, CPOOL, BOG, and ARC.
Among them: Bittensor recently launched the mainnet of Bittensor Subnet 42, which made the market optimistic about the development prospects of its decentralized AI data network, and the market sentiment is optimistic. The most noteworthy thing is that Bittensor's core consensus algorithm Yuma can convert the first-layer pledge into the second-layer incentive. This neural incentive design is an emerging field; and HEX recently launched PulseChain, which is expected to have a positive impact on prices. However, there are differences in everyone's views on HEX, and the market sentiment is relatively unstable.
Source: AlphaScan, Dot Labs
AI automatically selects items:
Automatically selected based on sentiment and overall positive sentiment.
Source: AlphaScan, Dot Labs
Important KOLs ’ new projects:
1. NAKA (@NakamotoGames /X)
Nakamoto Games is a powerful Web3 gaming ecosystem that provides a platform for games based on skills, strategy, and in-depth game knowledge rather than luck (gambling). Developers will also have the tools to publish their own game works on the platform and profit from them. Currently, NAKAMOTO GAMES has successfully launched more than 200 games. Recently, Nakamoto Games continues to improve and update its platform, launch many new games, and has an excellent marketing strategy. The market is optimistic about Nakamoto Games and the market sentiment is optimistic. The market believes that Nakamoto Games is one of the most promising GameFi projects at present, based on its successful release of the MMORPG game Outlanders and its performance in the Web3 game field.
2. TRADE (@Polytrade_fin /X)
POLYTRADE has built the largest RWA ecosystem to date, with a marketplace featuring USDY, a tokenized note backed by short-term U.S. Treasuries and bank demand deposits. POLYTRADE is unlocking liquidity trapped in stagnant invoices, enabling SMEs around the world to improve their working capital. In trade finance, large amounts of capital are often also subject to certain restrictions due to regulatory or limited partner-related restrictions. Polytrade is able to deploy funds more flexibly using decentralized pools of capital and provide products and services in an environment where competitors or other players do not yet exist.
3. PALM (@palmaierc /X)
PALM AI is a multi-platform web3 AI application system powered by Google. The team leverages the latest developments in AI and focuses on product utility, innovation, and revenue sharing. From GameFi applications and hardware to Web3 solutions related to Ethereum expansion to RWA hardware systems, Google's AI toolkit and internal innovative algorithms are combined to bring on-chain AI integration to a new level.
Recently, PALM AI launched its new product - Web3 Embedded Entertainment System, which is the first AI device based on Web3-enabled microcontroller that can perform complex interactions with the blockchain with just a voice or a click.
4. ORAI (@oraichain /X)
Oraichain is the world's first AI-driven blockchain oracle and ecosystem, and is now transforming into an advanced AI layer 1 for data economy and oracle services, as the foundation for creating a new generation of smart contracts and Dapps, and creating a complete AI ecosystem on the blockchain. Recently, Oraichain has reached a cooperation with Allora Network, which makes the market more optimistic about Oraichain and believes that it has great potential in the field of AI and data. In addition, Oraichain also cooperates with the well-known fund DWF Labs, which has successful investment experience in the cryptocurrency market.
3. Smart money builds a position
Smart money holdings
Source: ChainEDGE, Dot Labs
Smart money flows in
Source: ChainEDGE, Dot Labs
3. Attention Value-Sector Rotation
1. Hot topics
Source: Dune, Dot Labs
Source: Dune, Dot Labs
2. Inside the plate
Source: Dune, Dot Labs
