Toncoin (TON) is now poised for a breakout and possible rebound after a sharp drop in price. TON price has fallen by more than 25% since the arrest of Telegram CEO Pavel Durov in France and is currently struggling to gain momentum.
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1 Billion Transaction Milestone
The TON network has just passed a huge milestone of completing 1 billion transactions. August 29th will always be a golden memory for this blockchain. Just the day after the network freeze, the TON blockchain saw a surge in wallet creation and transactions. On August 27th, the DOGS airdrop started, and users were so anxious that they sent millions of transactions, causing the blockchain to bottleneck on the 28th. For the next 6 hours, the situation remained unchanged. The next day became a milestone for the TON network.
Data from tonstats shows that the network's on-chain activity continues to increase. The total number of newly created wallets increased from 11.65 million on August 2 to 14.39 million on August 29. More than 100,000 new wallets are activated every day, and more than 600,000 wallets are performing daily transactions.
Technical factors
Toncoin is trading at $5.26, down 36.19% from its all-time high of $8.288 in mid-June this year. The RSI on the daily chart reflects a divergence, which suggests that Ton will soon see a price reversal. A head and shoulders pattern can also be seen in the same chart, but historical data shows that negative patterns usually do not have much impact on asset prices when the number of addresses and transactions grows at a high rate. And the participation of traders and investors has increased during the recent price drop.
Additionally, Sentiments’ supply distribution metric shows that the number of wallets holding between 100,000 and 1 million TON tokens has dropped significantly. Meanwhile, the number of wallets holding between 1 million and 10 million tokens has surged from 0 to 1.11 million since the arrest of Telegram’s CEO.
This massive surge in whale accumulation indicates a potential buying opportunity during the price drop, and also suggests that whales may believe this is the best time to buy.
However, according to on-chain analytics firm CoinGlass, TON’s open interest has dropped by 2% over the past 24 hours. The drop suggests that traders may be panicking due to low market sentiment.
Ton Wallet Update
Ton Core and Tonkeeper launched the W5 smart wallet standard last month. This facilitates gas-free transactions on the TON blockchain using USDT as transaction fees.
This has become another reason for the surge in transactions on the network. The number of active addresses on the blockchain has reached about 50 million, with an adoption rate of over 45%. Most of the addresses and transactions are due to token airdrops on the open network.
TON Price Prediction
TON has formed a bullish descending price action pattern on the four-hour timeframe amid ongoing consolidation. It is now in a constricting zone, ready to break out.
TON is at a critical support level of $5.26. It has been consolidating in a tight range between $5.1 and $5.3 for the past 20 hours. If TON breaks out of this consolidation zone and the descending triangle and closes a 4-hour candle above $5.30, there are high chances of a 15% surge to $6.
Meanwhile, if the sentiment remains bearish and TON’s 4-hour candlestick closes below the $5.08 support, we could see a massive sell-off. Currently, TON’s relative strength index (RSI) is in the oversold territory, suggesting that the price could reverse from downside to upside.
Looking ahead
All data from various sources indicate one thing: the TON blockchain is gaining huge traction from the crypto community. The boom in airdrops and gasless transactions, the daily growth in wallets and transactions prove that the community is very interested in this blockchain. These are the things that the crypto community needs right now. Because this blockchain not only meets the needs of the community but also the needs of developers, it would be wrong to say that this token is on an unstoppable path.
In simple terms
Since the arrest of Telegram's CEO, wallets holding 1 million to 10 million tokens have surged from 0 to 1.11 million. Currently, TON has formed a bullish descending price action pattern and is expected to rebound upward. The current data and some technical indicators show the community market's interest and confidence in the TON blockchain, which supports TON's bullish outlook in the short term. In the long term, if TON's 4-hour closing price is above $5.30 in the near term, its price may surge 15% to $6, turning the price from downward to upward.
