Written by: Shang2046
The information, opinions and judgments on markets, projects, currencies, etc. mentioned in this report are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice.
After six months of high-level fluctuations, BTC has been squeezed dry and is ready to go, but the US macro-economy has temporarily become the core force that determines the market.
Market Week
This week, BTC opened at $57,301 and closed at $54,867, with an amplitude of 12.6%, and the lowest point fell to $52,000, very close to the low point of the new high consolidation zone of $49,000, which fell rapidly a month ago. The gains accumulated from the rebound to $65,000 in the previous two weeks have disappeared. The market has been hovering below the 200-day moving average for a month, and the panic index once reached 26, close to the bottom of the bear market.
Although our monthly report points out that in the range of 54,000-73,700, 2.9 million BTC have been newly accumulated in the past six months, building a theoretically strong support. Various on-chain data show that we are back to the situation in September last year: the internal market structure of BTC has been sorted out for a long time, just like a pile of firewood that has squeezed out excess water, and dry firewood is ignited at the touch of a button, but there are still clear signs of continued inflows on the capital side. With the capital side in a fragile balance and the US interest rate adjusted to a very sensitive moment, BTC has clearly handed over the pricing power to the US dollar system.
The US non-farm payrolls data released on September 6th is crucial to the upcoming US interest rate policy adjustment in September. The 142,000 new jobs were slightly lower than market expectations. The expectations of mainstream US financial institutions were also divided. In the end, concerns about economic recession and the continued deleveraging of the Japanese yen carry trade caused the entire market to flow out of risky assets. The impact of BTC was very obvious in the US ETF. Since the US ETF went online, it has recorded a net outflow for 8 consecutive days for the first time.
After a weekend of digestion, Nasdaq began to show signs of rebounding, and the market's concerns about economic recession have also been reduced to a considerable extent. BTC rebounded from 53,000 to around 57,000 US dollars. But we must note that before the clear interest rate cut in September, the market is still in a fragile balance. We firmly believe that the opening of the interest rate cut will be beneficial to BTC, but historically, it takes a certain amount of time from various expected Price In to the actual effect of liquidity. We tend to believe that before the US election in November, BTC is expected to get out of the painful consolidation range affected by the US macroeconomic policy and economic uncertainty.
Federal Reserve and economic data
On September 6, the US released data. The negative came from: 142,000 non-farm employment, lower than the expected 160,000; the positive came from: the unemployment rate dropped from 4.3% to 4.2%, a new low since June, the first decline since the four consecutive months of increase; but the non-farm employment in June and July was overhauled, with 86,000 recorded in two months. After the data was released, the US rose for a short time, but soon entered a continuous decline and finally closed at the lowest point. The US dollar, US stocks, and gold may be based on the concerns of a "hard landing", and stocks, bonds, and currencies have triple-killed. At the same time, the US dollar against the Japanese yen has fallen to the low point of the Carry Trade collapse on August 5. The Nasdaq still has about 6% space from the Carry Trade low point.
Stablecoins and ETFs
The two channels recorded a net outflow of nearly $500 million, with the ETF channel recording a main outflow of 706 million (the second largest week in history), which has been outflowing for 8 consecutive trading days. Stablecoin recorded a net inflow of 120 million, of which the previously strong USDT weakened, with an outflow of 12 million throughout the week, while USDC received an inflow of 158 million. The SSR index has approached the lower Bollinger band for the first time since January last year, indicating that the supply of stablecoins has been seriously underestimated relative to the BTC price, and there is a large demand for a rebound.
Supply Analysis
In the price range above $54,000, the total accumulated BTC chips are 5.985 million, and 30.31% are in a loss state. The loss ratio is lower than 41% in September last year. Long-term investors' positions continue to mature, increasing by 40,000, and short-term positions decrease by 45,000. The 7-day average of long and short-term sales is on a downward trend, and the selling pressure is not large. The destocking trend of centralized exchanges is interrupted, and the accumulation increases by 5,000. The decline in purchasing power corresponds to the slowdown in the inflow of stablecoins and the outflow of ETFs.
BTC on-chain data
BTC's new addresses and active addresses are both hovering at low levels, but have not dropped significantly, and are generally stable; Ethereum Eco's new addresses and active addresses have dropped significantly, but total transacitons remain high. Solana's new addresses have dropped slightly, active addresses have hit a new high, and total transacitons remain high.
Cycle Indicators
The EMC BTC Cycle Metrics indicator is 0, and the bullish signal is temporarily dormant.
END
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