The presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris is about to take place on Tuesday evening. Although it is unlikely that cryptocurrencies will be mentioned, the crypto community is still paying close attention to the two's different attitudes towards cryptocurrencies and their potential impact on the market. Before the debate, the crypto market was volatile.
According to Bitpush data, Bitcoin once touched the key level of US$58,000 that day, but failed to hold it. As of press time, the trading price was US$57,798, up 1.42% in 24 hours.
Most of the top 200 tokens by market cap rose, led by SuperVerse (SUPER) with a 17.9% gain; Terra (LUNA) with a 15.6% gain; WOO (WOO) with a 12.8% gain; Sun (SUN) led the decline with a 6.5% drop; RocketPool (RPL) with a 6.2% drop; and Starknet (STRK) with a 5.3% drop.
The current overall market value of cryptocurrencies is $2.04 trillion, and Bitcoin’s market share is 56.2%.
As for U.S. stocks, at the close, stocks were mixed, with the S&P and Nasdaq rising 0.45% and 0.84% respectively, while the Dow fell 0.23%.
Analysts: There will be one last drop before the October rally
According to Mags, a well-known cryptocurrency analyst, the bull market may see a major drop before the next leg up. The analyst wrote in a post on X on September 9: “Bitcoin - the last drop before the rise.”
Bitcoin price has been forming higher highs and higher lows since February 2024. While this indicates a long-term uptrend, analysts’ charts suggest that another pullback to the $51,000 trendline is likely before the next leg higher.
In addition, according to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) 4-hour Bitcoin gap data, the current BTC CME gap is between $54,000 and $54,450, so there is a possibility that Bitcoin will pull back to $54,000.
TradingView explains that CME gap analysis has become an important method for evaluating Bitcoin's potential retest areas during momentum breakouts. When these gaps form, traders often mark them as potential support and resistance ranges before the trend continues or reverses.
Other analysts also expect Bitcoin’s current consolidation phase to end with a drop, including well-known analyst Titan of Crypto, who wrote in a Sept. 10 post on X: “BTC is likely to end this consolidation phase. History doesn’t always repeat itself, but it often resembles.”
Why October is the best time for Bitcoin to explode?
According to anonymous analyst Titan of Crypto , Bitcoin’s final bullish cycle could begin as early as October. “October could be the month when BTC finally begins its final cycle move,” the analyst wrote in a Sept. 4 post on X.
Based on Bitcoin’s average historical returns, investors expected a breakout in October, making October the second-best month for Bitcoin price action. According to CoinGlass data, Bitcoin’s average return in October was 22.9%, and November remains the best performing month, with an average historical return of 46.81%.
Rekt Capital wrote in a Sept. 8 post on X that previous halving cycles also pointed to an October breakout that lasted as long as three months.
30-day funding rate drops to negative value, suggesting a bottoming signal
K33 Research said in a market report released on Tuesday that while investors remain concerned about further declines, one indicator points to a sharp rise in the coming weeks and months. The report showed that the 30-day average funding rate for perpetual swaps has slipped to negative values, which has only happened six times since 2018.
“In the past, negative monthly funding rates have typically been associated with market bottoms,” K33 analysts wrote. Based on previous instances when the indicator turned negative, the average return over the next 90 days was 79%, with a median 90-day return of 55%.
At the same time, as shorts poured in, open interest in derivatives gradually climbed to its highest level since the end of July. Coupled with continued negative funding rates, the market could see a short squeeze, the report said. "Similar environments provide a very compelling reason to actively deploy BTC in the coming months," the author said.
Author: BitpushNews Mary Liu
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