Odaily星球日报讯 美国 8 月份 CPI 通胀报告将在北京时间今晚八点半公布。在此之前，据 CME“美联储观察”，美联储 9 月降息 25 个基点的概率为 67%，降息 50 个基点的概率为 33%。

CPI数据公布前，美联储9月降息50个基点概率报33%

Odaily Odaily reported that the US August CPI inflation report will be released at 8:30 tonight Beijing time. Prior to this, according to CME&#39;s &quot;Fed Watch&quot;, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 67%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 33%.

Before the release of CPI data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in September was 33%.

According to a Reuters survey, most surveyed economists believe the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points at each of the three remaining policy meetings in 2024, and only nine out of 101 economists expect the Fed to cut rates by 50 basis points next week. Santander's chief U.S. economist Stephen Stanley said, "The employment report, although weak, is not disastrous. Last Friday, Williams and Waller did not provide clear guidance on whether to cut rates by 25 or 50 basis points on September 18, but they both gave a relatively benign assessment of the economy, which in my view strongly points to a 25 basis point cut." 65 out of 95 surveyed economists believe the Fed will cut rates twice more in November and December, by 25 basis points each time, after next week's meeting. Last month, 55 out of 101 surveyed economists held this view.

Reuters poll: Most economists expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September and cut rates twice more this year

Odaily reports that according to market information, the 1-year inflation expectation of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in August was 3%, compared to the previous value of 2.97% (Wind).

The New York Fed's 1-year inflation forecast for the United States in August was 3%, up from 2.97% in the previous month.

The source: JinShi Data
The uncertainty of macroeconomic and policy factors has sent further volatility signals to the stock market in recent weeks, but Goldman Sachs analysts said the risk of the US stock market falling into a bear market, i.e. a larger correction, appears to be small.
According to the bank, with high valuations, mixed macroeconomic prospects, and policy uncertainty, the risk of investors withdrawing is high.
Although these factors may cause volatility and erode returns in the coming months, Goldman Sachs pointed out that there is little reason to believe that the US stock market will fall 20% from its recent highs.
"We believe that by the end of the year, the risk-adjusted return on stocks may be higher..."

Goldman Sachs: The probability of a bear market in the US stock market is low, and the Federal Reserve is more likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September