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ToggleMarket Analysis – Trump’s polls fell after the US presidential debate, and the cryptocurrency market fell simultaneously
Although the price of BTC has rebounded significantly in the past few days, it fell again after today's debate. Altcoin also fell by about 5%. BTC is still in a downward trend so far, and it is likely to fall back to in the short term. The level of US$54,000 ~ US$55,000, but there are several phenomena this week that may indicate that the bear market may be about to see the light.
First of all, BTC Dominance has been fluctuating at a high level for a long time. Last week, it fell below the 4-hour 200 EMA line for the first time. This time the BTC rebound can clearly show that the rebound of altcoins is stronger. This means that Altcoin have grown over time. Convergence and get out of the bottom, just wait for a good time to erupt.
The BTC spot ETF also saw inflows for the first time yesterday after many consecutive days of outflows. Although this data is not directly related to the price, it can represent that the attitude of institutions has begun to turn positive.
At the same time, cryptocurrency research firm K33 Research said in a market report released on Tuesday that the 30-day average funding rate of Bitcoin (BTC) perpetual contracts fell to negative levels, which has only happened six times since 2018. The report pointed out that based on previous instances where the indicator flipped into negative values, Bitcoin’s average return rate in the subsequent 90 days was 79%, and the median 90-day return rate was 55%.
Based on the above signs, we should be optimistic about the next market.
However, these data are all long-term data and may take a period of fermentation. At this stage, the market is still in the trend of constantly "drawing arches". For most investors and traders in the market, it is undoubtedly a "difficult period". model". We believe this situation may be difficult to escape in the near future. Under this premise, it would be wiser for spot investors to reserve part of the funds for operations in the "simple mode" cycle where it is easier to make money, or to adopt the DCA strategy to continue to accumulate funds and avoid potential losses as much as possible. choose.
On the other hand, due to the lack of narrative and catalysts, the price of Bitcoin and other Altcoin in the short term will most likely continue to be dominated by macroeconomic events. For example, the US presidential election debate started this morning, and the US August Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will be released tonight.
US presidential election debate
In the US presidential election debate, Trump and Harris discussed many topics such as abortion rights, the proliferation of guns, and the war in Ukraine, but did not mention cryptocurrency.
Of the two major candidates, Trump is seen as the more friendly to the cryptocurrency industry, promising to end the U.S. government's "illegal and un-American suppression" of the U.S. cryptocurrency industry. In contrast, it is still unclear what stance Harris will take on the cryptocurrency industry. In addition, Harris' future policy stance announced this week also does not include cryptocurrency, leading many people to believe that Harris may Maintain the Biden administration’s current regulatory stance on digital assets.
In this hearing, Harris' performance seemed to be better than Trump's, which caused Trump's chance of winning to fall by 3% after the hearing, while Harris's chance of winning increased by 3% correspondingly, returning to a tie.
Because of this, Bitcoin has plummeted rapidly since the debate began, sliding from nearly $58,000 to $56,000, and the decline of Altcoin is even more modest. This seems to reflect the market's view of the debate.
CPI and September interest rate cut expectations
On the other hand, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is crucial to the Federal Reserve's policy decision, will also be released at 8:30 tonight. The market currently predicts that the annual growth rate will further decline to 2.5%.
Although U.S. non-farm payrolls in August were lower than expected, the overall data, although disappointing, did not reach the point where the Federal Reserve would have to cut interest rates by two percentage points this month, so the extent of the potential interest rate cut remains unclear. In such an environment, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will become key to the Federal Reserve's decision-making.
According to FedWatch data, the possibility of a one-cent rate cut in September has risen significantly compared with last week. If there are no surprises in the CPI this time, there will not be much suspense about a one-cent rate cut this month. In addition, if the Fed unexpectedly cuts interest rates by two percentage points when CPI is in line with expectations, it may signal that it is taking action to prevent an economic recession, a move that may panic investors.
Binance Copying Analysis
GTRadar – BULL
GTRadar – Balanced
GTRadar – Potential public chain OKX
- The yields of "GTRadar - BULL", "GTRadar - Balance" and "GTRadar - Potential Public Chain OKX" in the past 7 days are -1.47%, -3.32% and -4.58% respectively, and the yields in the past 30 days are - 6.13%, -5.36% and -2.29%.
- The market has also been experiencing wide fluctuations in the past week, and each investment group has reduced the order volume, but still suffered some losses.
- Currently, "GTRadar - BULL" holds a net long position of 5%, mainly BNB.
- Currently, "GTRadar - Balanced" holds about 20% of its net long positions, mainly BNB and BTC.
- Currently, "GTRadar - Potential Public Chain" holds a net short position of about 5%, mainly SOL and ETH.
- The long-term returns of a follower who often changes his investment portfolio are not as good as those of a follower who continues to follow a single group. Don’t end the follower easily just because of a short-term retracement. Judging from the curve, the retracement is a good time to start following. In and out, on the contrary, the yield rate will be significantly reduced.
Hot news
Huida denies receiving subpoena in U.S. Department of Justice antitrust investigation
Bloomberg reported last week that the U.S. Department of Justice issued subpoenas to chipmaker Nvidia and other companies, seeking evidence to investigate whether the company violated antitrust laws. However, Huida clarified the next day that the company had contacted the government agency but had not received a subpoena.
Trump family DeFi project token allocation outflow, up to 70% of tokens belong to internal members
Foreign media CoinDesk twice disclosed relevant information about the DeFi project "World Liberty Financial" promoted by the Trump family last week. It contains the initial token distribution of the project’s governance token WLFI. According to reports, 70% of WLFI’s total issuance will be held by “founders, teams and service providers.” The remaining 30% will be distributed through "public sales", but part of the funds raised will also flow to project insiders, and the remainder will be retained in the treasury to "support the operations of World Liberty Financial." Because the internal allocation ratio of 70% is unusually high, it has triggered widespread discussion in the community.
CoinDesk reported, citing people familiar with the matter, that New York State Attorney General (NYAG) Letitia James has joined the fray and launched a regulatory offensive against the cryptocurrency trading platform Uniswap. Reports indicate that Letitia James’ office issued a subpoena to some Uniswap venture capital firms last month, requesting Uniswap-related information, including well-known venture capital firms Andreessen Horowitz (a16z) and Union Square Ventures.
The Ethereum Foundation personally responded: How much money is left and how many years can it last?
According to previous reports by Zombit, the budget topic of the Ethereum Foundation has been widely discussed in the cryptocurrency community since 35,000 ETH was transferred to the Kraken exchange. The Ethereum Foundation was also asked about issues related to the foundation's fund reserves when it held its 12th AMA on Reddit. In this regard, core researcher Justin Drake said that the foundation’s financial report should be released soon. The current annual budget is approximately $100 million. In addition, the Ethereum Foundation's main Ethereum wallet still holds approximately $650 million worth of ETH at current prices.
Pavel Durov, CEO of the instant messaging software Telegram, issued his first statement after his arrest in France. He not only criticized the French authorities for the reasons for his arrest, but also stated that Telegram was prepared to withdraw from the market that cannot coexist harmoniously with the principles of the platform.
U.S. releases labor force data for August
Nonfarm payroll employment in August was 142,000, below expectations of 165,000. The unemployment rate was in line with expectations of 4.2%.
Friend.Tech development team gives up contract control! FRIEND token plummets
The development team of Friend.Tech, a SocialFi project based on the Base network, executed a function on the platform's smart contract early on September 8 to transfer its control to Ethereum's null address, effectively deactivating the current system. Lock to prevent further changes. After Friend.Tech announced this news, its token FRIEND fell by more than 30% in the past 24 hours, with its market value falling below $6 million.
On September 8, Arthur Hayes posted on
Bitcoin spot ETF ends eight consecutive days of outflows, with net inflow of 28 million magnesium
The U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF ended eight consecutive days of outflows on Monday, reporting net inflows of $28.72 million. Compared with Bitcoin ETFs, Ethereum ETFs continue to maintain capital outflows. Yesterday, the U.S. Ethereum spot ETF once again recorded a net outflow of US$5.2 million, reaching the fifth consecutive day.
Blockchain analysis company IntoTheBlock pointed out on Monday that the share of holdings of the largest holders of Ethereum (ETH) has continued to grow since 2019, and continues to accumulate more Ethereum over time. This cumulative behavior further accelerated in early 2023, coinciding with the timing of the Shapella upgrade. A chart from IntoTheBlock shows that these whale addresses currently control more than 43% of the circulating supply of ether, close to the 48% held by retail investors combined.
The debate between U.S. presidential candidate Kamala Harris and Trump has ended. During the debate, the two discussed abortion rights, the proliferation of guns, and the war in Ukraine, but still did not mention cryptocurrency. After the debate, Trump's chance of winning fell sharply by 3%, while Harris' chance of winning increased by 3%, and the two were tied again.
The above content does not constitute any financial investment advice. All data comes from GT Radar official website announcements. Each user may have slight differences due to different entry and exit prices, and past performance does not represent future performance!
