Written by: Biteye core contributor Viee
The Bitcoin cycle theory, especially its association with the Bitcoin halving event, has long been seen as an important tool for predicting Bitcoin price trends. Historically, Bitcoin halvings have usually led to price increases, but current market performance and the factors behind it suggest that the effectiveness of this theory may be weakening.
This article will review the four cycles of Bitcoin from 2011 to 2024 and delve into the market changes in the current cycle.
01The basis of Bitcoin cycle theory
The mining reward of Bitcoin is halved every 210,000 blocks, which occurs approximately every four years. This mechanism is designed to control the supply of Bitcoin, thereby increasing its scarcity. Historically, halving events are usually accompanied by significant increases in Bitcoin prices, forming cycles. For example:
2012 Halving: Bitcoin price surged from around $12 to over $1,000 by the end of 2013.
2016 Halving: Bitcoin prices rose to nearly $3,000 shortly after the halving and reached an all-time high of nearly $20,000 in late 2017.
2020 Halving: Bitcoin prices quickly rose to a record high in 2021 after the May 2020 halving.
After the halving events in 2012, 2016, and 2020, Bitcoin prices experienced significant increases, forming a clear bull market cycle. These historical data have made the Bitcoin cycle theory widely recognized and trusted.
This cycle completed the fourth Bitcoin halving on April 20, 2024, but the performance after the halving was not as good as expected.
02Price data after halving
If we move the dates of Bitcoin halvings in history to the same starting point on the coordinate axis and compare the subsequent prices with the price on the day of halving, we can find that the performance of the current cycle is the worst.
Although the market broke out to a new cyclical all-time high for the first time ahead of the April halving event, this has not changed the relatively sluggish performance of the current cycle.
Source: Glassnode
The following is the price fluctuation about 144 days after each halving cycle (compared with the price on the day of halving):
- Cycle 1: +895%
- Cycle 2: +15%
- Cycle 3: +37%
- Cycle 4: -11%
The current cycle has seen a weaker price reaction than previous halvings, and Bitcoin’s price performance has been poor. Why is this happening? How is this cycle different from previous ones?
03 Bitcoin tends to be stable
The 2023-2024 Bitcoin cycle is similar to previous cycles in some ways, but there are also significant differences.
After the FTX crash at the end of 2022, the market experienced about 18 months of steady price increases. With the passage of the Bitcoin ETF, new funds continued to pour in, and after reaching a high of $73,000, the market entered a three-month range shock.
During this period, from May to July, Bitcoin prices experienced the deepest cyclical correction, with a pullback of more than 26%. Although this decline is significant, it is significantly shallower and less volatile than in previous cycles, reflecting that Bitcoin's market structure is relatively stable and more mature as a financial asset than before.
Source: Glassnode
Let's take a look at another technical indicator, MVRV Z-score, which also shows the difference in Bitcoin market performance in different cycles.
First, the MVRV-Z score is a relative indicator, calculated as: (circulating market value - realized market value) / standard deviation (circulating market value). When this indicator is too high, it means that the market value of Bitcoin is overestimated relative to its true value, which may be unfavorable for the price. Conversely, if the indicator is low, it means that the market value of Bitcoin is underestimated.
Source: Coinglass
From the data from 2010 to 2024 in the above figure, we can see that compared with the previous cycle, the fluctuations, peaks and returns of the MVRV-Z score (green line) are relatively mild, not as large as in the early days. Bitcoin has begun to tend towards a stable, gradually rising trend, rather than the previous dramatic price surges. This gradual growth model is more attractive in the long run.
04Reasons for reduced volatility
We can use a data indicator to intuitively explain why Bitcoin volatility has weakened and tended to stabilize.
The Bitcoin 5+ Years HODL Wave indicator shows the percentage of Bitcoin that has not moved on-chain for at least 5 years, sometimes referred to as the last active Bitcoin supply 5 years ago. To some extent, it reflects the behavior of long-term participants in the market.
Of course, it is also possible that some of these bitcoins have been lost, that is, the user no longer has access to the private keys of the wallets containing the bitcoins, but this proportion is smaller.
As can be seen from the figure, more than 30% of Bitcoin has not been transferred in the past five years, and this proportion may continue to rise. This phenomenon has led to a decrease in the number of Bitcoins circulating in the market, and its impact has exceeded the reduction in supply increments brought about by the halving event. This means that the trend of long-term holding of Bitcoin is significantly increasing, making the market better able to resist short-term fluctuations, and it may also weaken the cyclical fluctuations of Bitcoin, which is one of the reasons for the reduction in Bitcoin volatility.
Other factors can be attributed to: For example, as the market matures, more and more investors choose to hold Bitcoin for the long term, reducing the circulating supply and reducing the sharp fluctuations in prices. In addition, the supply and demand relationship of Bitcoin is also changing, and the continuous inflow of funds provides support for the price.
Furthermore, factors such as global economic uncertainty, policy changes, and market sentiment will all have an impact on the price of Bitcoin. In this case, the price of Bitcoin may be more correlated with the trend of traditional financial markets, thereby reducing its independent volatility. These reasons work together to make the volatility of Bitcoin prices relatively mild in the current cycle.
05 Conclusion
Compared with historical cycles, the current cycle’s price correction is smaller, the market structure is relatively stable, and Bitcoin price volatility has decreased.
Therefore, when trading Bitcoin, it is not enough to rely solely on market cycle analysis. On the one hand, historical data cannot predict future trends. On the other hand, the crypto market will gradually move towards market standardization, ushering in enhanced liquidity and larger-scale applications, which is a natural result of financial development.
