Odaily星球日报讯 债券交易员再次认为，美联储政策制定者在本周的会议上更有可能降息 50 个基点，而不是 25 个基点。与美联储利率决议挂钩的掉期合约显示，美联储本周降息 50 个基点的可能性超过 50%，相比之下，上周交易员们几乎完全排除了这种可能性。这使得两年期美国美国收益率回到两年来的最低水平，并将美元指数拖累至 1 月以来的最低水平。 荷兰合作银行（Rabobank）高级美国策略师菲利普·马雷（Philip Marey）写道，他预计美联储将实施标准的 25 个基点的降息。“鲍威尔缺乏指导可能表明 FOMC 尚未达成共识。更重要的是，周二的零售销售仍可能改变市场预期。”（金十）

Odaily星球日报讯 债券交易员再次认为，美联储政策制定者在本周的会议上更有可能降息 50 个基点，而不是 25 个基点。与美联储利率决议挂钩的掉期合约显示，美联储本周降息 50 个基点的可能性超过 50%，相比之下，上周交易员们几乎完全排除了这种可能性。这使得两年期美国美国收益率回到两年来的最低水平，并将美元指数拖累至 1 月以来的最低水平。荷兰合作银行（Rabobank）高级美国策略师菲利普·马雷（Philip Marey）写道，他预计美联储将实施标准的 25 个基点的降息。“鲍威尔缺乏指导可能表明 FOMC 尚未达成共识。更重要的是，周二的零售销售仍可能改变市场预期。”（金十）

掉期合约显示美联储本周降息50基点概率已超50%

Bond traders once again believe that Federal Reserve policymakers are more likely to cut rates by 50 basis points rather than 25 basis points at their meeting this week. Swap contracts linked to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision show that the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 50 basis points this week exceeds 50%, compared to last week when traders almost completely ruled out this possibility. This has pushed the yield on the two-year US Treasury back to its lowest level in two years and dragged the US dollar index to its lowest level since January. 

Rabobank senior US strategist Philip Marey wrote that he expects the Federal Reserve to implement a standard 25 basis point rate cut. "Powell's lack of guidance may indicate that the FOMC has not yet reached a consensus. More importantly, retail sales on Tuesday could still change market expectations." (Gold Ten)

Odaily Odaily News Bond traders once again believe that Federal Reserve policymakers are more likely to cut interest rates by 50 basis points than 25 basis points at this week&#39;s meeting. Swap contracts linked to the Fed&#39;s interest rate decisions show that the Fed has a more than 50% chance of a 50 basis point cut this week, compared with last week when traders almost completely ruled out the possibility. This brought the two-year U.S. yield back to its lowest level in two years and dragged the dollar index to its lowest level since January. Philip Marey, senior U.S. strategist at Rabobank, wrote that he expects the Fed to implement a standard 25 basis point rate cut. &quot;Powell&#39;s lack of guidance may indicate that the FOMC has not yet reached a consensus. More importantly, retail sales on Tuesday may still change market expectations.&quot; (Jinshi)

Swap contracts show that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points this week has exceeded 50%

The market was relatively stable for most of last week, but by Friday, the market's expectation of a 50-basis-point rate cut in September suddenly surged from around 15% to about 50%, and there was almost no clear news to explain this change. The economic data was largely in line with expectations and was not a factor, and the Federal Reserve was still in a silent period, which led market participants to speculate that this repricing may have been triggered by comments from former Federal Reserve officials and journalists...

SignalPlus Macro Analysis (20240916): 50 is the New 25

Original | Liu Jie Chain

Overnight, BTC has been maintained at around $60,000. A unique event has occurred in BTC's history for the first time: the 100-week moving average has crossed above the 200-week moving average, forming a "golden cross".

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After the Mid-Autumn Festival, the Federal Reserve will hold a meeting on monetary policy. This rate cut is almost a done deal. The only point of contention is how much the first rate cut will be. Will it be 25bp or 50bp? It is reported that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is consulting with the various governors, and there are still differences within the Board of Governors.

The good news is that the market has shifted from fearing a recession to welcoming a larger rate cut. The...

The Fed’s Last Stand

According to the analysis of the institution, Australian bond traders have many things to focus on domestically and internationally this week. The market generally expects the US Federal Reserve FOMC to start cutting interest rates this week, and the real controversy is the extent of the rate cut. If the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 50 basis points, it may exacerbate the attack on the hawkish rhetoric of the Reserve Bank of Australia, highlighting that the Reserve Bank of Australia is lagging behind the increasingly global central banks that are cutting interest rates.

Recently, the Reserve Bank of Australia has been criticized for "damaging the economy" due to high interest rates. As for the domestic situation in Australia, the country's employment data for September will be released on Thursday. Economists expect that the number of jobs will increase steadily, and the unemployment rate will drop to 4.1%.