The crypto market is treading water ahead of a critical U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate decision on Wednesday, with Bitcoin (BTC) trading at $58,500, down 0.2%, and Ethereum (ETH) up slightly by 0.3% to $2,305.
Experts are raising red flags about Bitcoin's resistance levels and the potential for volatility, particularly as the market is divided on whether the Fed will opt for a 25-basis point or 50-basis point rate cut, a key factor influencing market sentiment.
In a note sent to Decrypt, analysts from Bitfinex have sounded the alarm, emphasizing that Bitcoin's price is nearing a crucial resistance point between $60,500 and $61,000.
According to Bitfinex analysts, this level has played a pivotal role in price action since early March. A de-risking event could occur following the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision, particularly if the outcome deviates from market expectations.
“Spot CVD metrics have remained flat over the weekend,” they wrote, “which could signal a stall if investors become more risk-averse ahead of the FOMC decision.”
Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) metrics track the difference between buying and selling pressure by analyzing the net volume of trades, helping traders identify potential price trends or reversals based on market activity.
Meanwhile, flows in Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs paint a mixed picture as the industry watches the Fed's moves.
According to data from SoSo Value, on September 16, Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of $12.9 million, with BlackRock’s ETF leading the way with a $15.8 million inflow. Grayscale’s GBTC saw outflows of $20.7 million, Grayscale mini ETF BTC took in $2.8 million and Fidelity ETF FBTC took in $5 million.
However, Ethereum experienced a total net outflow of $9.5 million, led by Grayscale’s (ETHE), which posted a $13.8 million outflow. BlackRock ETF (ETHA) had an inflow of $4.1 million, data shows.
Meanwhile, Fairlead Strategies highlighted concerns about Bitcoin’s short-term overbought conditions, reflected in indicators like the weekly MACD and stochastics.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) is a trend-following momentum indicator that shows the relationship between two moving averages of an asset's price, helping identify potential buy or sell signals. Stochastics is an oscillator that compares a specific closing price to a range of prices over time, used to signal overbought or oversold conditions in the market.
“There is increased downside risk with Bitcoin possibly retreating to major support at $49,300,” the report, sent to Decrypt, noted. Should Bitcoin breach this support level, it could indicate a longer-term bearish trend for the digital asset, particularly as resistance remains strong at $63,900.
Adding to the uncertainty, Polymarket bettors are closely following the Fed’s decision, with a majority of them betting on a larger cut. According to data, 53% of bettors are predicting a 50+ basis point rate cut, while 46% are leaning towards a 25-basis point cut.
Edited by Stacy Elliott.
