Odaily星球日报讯 麦格理全球外汇和利率策略师 Thierry Wizman 等人表示，美联储本周降息 50 个基点的唯一理由是在 FOMC 会议前几天出现金融危机。（金十）

麦格理：美联储降息50基点唯一理由是FOMC会议前出现金融危机

Odaily Odaily News Macquarie Global Foreign Exchange and Interest Rate Strategist Thierry Wizman and others said that the only reason for the Fed to cut interest rates by 50 basis points this week was the financial crisis that occurred a few days before the FOMC meeting. (Jinshi)

Macquarie: The only reason for the Fed to cut interest rates by 50 basis points is the financial crisis before the FOMC meeting

According to the "Federal Reserve Observer" of CME, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 48%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 52%. The probability of the Federal Reserve cumulatively cutting interest rates by 50 basis points by November is 30.2%, the probability of cumulatively cutting interest rates by 75 basis points is 50.5%, and the probability of cumulatively cutting interest rates by 100 basis points is 19.3%.

The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 48%.

DBS Bank stated that the market expects the Federal Reserve to implement a series of rate cuts, but the aggressive market pricing may be disappointed and ultimately trigger panic. Economist Taimur Baig wrote in a report that "an inflation rate below 3% and a policy rate above 5% are often difficult to coexist, so some monetary easing is necessary. However, the market's reflection of the extent of rate cuts seems excessive. For the yield curve to reflect a rate cut of more than 200 basis points over the next 16 months, the US economy must clearly weaken, and inflation must fall below 2%, which is unlikely to happen." DBS Bank's basic view is that by the end of 2025, the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 150 basis points, and this week it will cut rates by 25 basis points.

DBS Bank: Pricing in the Fed’s aggressive rate cuts could lead to disappointment and panic

According to the analysis of the institution, Australian bond traders have many things to focus on domestically and internationally this week. The market generally expects the US Federal Reserve FOMC to start cutting interest rates this week, and the real controversy is the extent of the rate cut. If the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 50 basis points, it may exacerbate the attack on the hawkish rhetoric of the Reserve Bank of Australia, highlighting that the Reserve Bank of Australia is lagging behind the increasingly global central banks that are cutting interest rates.

Recently, the Reserve Bank of Australia has been criticized for "damaging the economy" due to high interest rates. As for the domestic situation in Australia, the country's employment data for September will be released on Thursday. Economists expect that the number of jobs will increase steadily, and the unemployment rate will drop to 4.1%.