Odaily星球日报讯 桥水创始人达利欧表示，美联储降息 25 个基点将是正确的；如果考虑到抵押贷款，则需要降息 50 个基点。（金十）

桥水创始人达利欧：美联储降息25个基点将是正确的

Odaily Odaily News Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio said that the Fed&#39;s 25 basis point rate cut would be correct; if mortgages are taken into account, a 50 basis point rate cut is needed. (Jinshi)

Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio: A 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed would be the right move

According to Odaily, Global X's investment strategy chief Scott Helfstein said that after US retail sales exceeded expectations in August, the Federal Reserve is likely to notice the continued strength of consumers. He said: "With a CPI inflation rate of 2.5%, a 300 basis point real interest rate may be too high, but the Federal Reserve does have the flexibility to start with a 25 basis point rate cut or a full 50 basis point rate cut." He said the key is for the Federal Reserve to start cutting rates, and the magnitude of the rate cut may not be closely related to the economy. He said that in recent months, retail sales growth has been slightly below the long-term average, but is still growing at a moderate pace.

Analyst: The Fed still has room to choose how much to cut interest rates

According to the CME "Fed Watch", the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 33.0%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 67.0%. The probability of the Federal Reserve cumulatively cutting interest rates by 50 basis points by November is 19.3%, the probability of a 75 basis point cut is 52.9%, and the probability of a 100 basis point cut is 27.8%.

CME "Fed Watch": The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points this week is higher than 25 basis points

According to the "Federal Reserve Observer" of CME, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 48%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 52%. The probability of the Federal Reserve cumulatively cutting interest rates by 50 basis points by November is 30.2%, the probability of cumulatively cutting interest rates by 75 basis points is 50.5%, and the probability of cumulatively cutting interest rates by 100 basis points is 19.3%.