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ToggleMarket Analysis – How many yards will the Federal Reserve announce to downgrade its seats early this morning? Will it be a watershed in the crypto?
This week on the eve of the Mid-Autumn Festival, the entire market has started a small rise. Both mainstream coins and Altcoin have increased by 5-10%. The rise of BTC is still in the previous period, which is very strong. BTC Dominance also hit a new high today to 58.51 %, which is the highest level since April 2021. In comparison, the ETH/BTC exchange rate fell as we had expected, and even hit a new low since April 2021, which means that the Altcoin market is really weak. It also means that after the adoption of the Bitcoin spot ETF, BTC will get more The attention of institutions and the deeper connection with the overall economy and stock market have also further compressed the Altcoin market.
The price trend of BTC is currently suppressed by the downward trend line formed since July, and is also at a pressure position of $61,000. The short-term is an opportunity for short profits and losses to be relatively high, but considering that the price will be high at 2 a.m. tonight There will be a U.S. FOMC interest rate decision-making meeting, which will decide whether to cut interest rates by 1 or 2 points. The volatility is expected to be very high. The whole world is watching this decision closely, so it is recommended to wait and see empty-handed. The investment team of GT Radar will also Let’s reduce some positions first. The following will help users integrate various views on interest rate decisions.
US FOMC interest rate decision
According to data from FedWatch, last week the Wall Street Journal and the Financial Times reported, citing people familiar with the matter, that a two-digit rate cut was listed as one of the options for the Fed to consider the scale of the rate cut, and policymakers did not clearly refute this. Market expectations reversed from last week. Current data indicates that the probability of a 2-digit rate cut is over 60%, compared with only about 30% a week ago.
However, overall, the market still does not reach a certain level of consensus on the extent of the Fed's interest rate cut, which will lead to significant fluctuations after the interest rate decision is announced. Moreover, there are various opinions in the market at this stage, and it is difficult to judge whether to cut interest rates by 2 or 1. The code is more beneficial to the short-term trend of risky assets such as Bitcoin.
Support the view of cutting interest rates by 1 yard
Analysts at Standard Chartered Bank warned that the Federal Reserve should not cut interest rates by 2 percentage points because economic data does not fully illustrate the consequences of a 2-point rate cut at the upcoming meeting. The risk of such an aggressive rate cut is too high and may even lead to an increase in unemployment in September.
On the other hand, Jean Boivin, head of BlackRock Investment Research, also said that the market's expectations for the Fed's rate cut seem to be too optimistic because inflation still risks rising.
Expectations for a 2-point interest rate cut rise
Morgan Stanley believes that the Fed may be inclined to cut interest rates by 2% because the bond market indicates that monetary policy has lagged behind: if interest rates remain high for a long time, it may damage the economy.
The head of interest rate strategy at Societe Generale also warned that the market is ready for a 2-digit interest rate cut, and commodity trading advisor CTA's long position in the bond market has accumulated to a three-year high. If the Fed's interest rate cut is smaller, , and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell hinted that it will adopt a gradual approach to interest rate cuts, the market may face greater stop-loss selling pressure.
At the same time, Anthony Scaramucci, founder of hedge fund Sky Bridge, said in an interview this week that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates by 50 basis points tonight. It is also predicted that Bitcoin is expected to hit a record high before the end of the year, reaching $100,000, driven by the next series of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and clarity on cryptocurrency regulation.
Potential investment opportunities
During this period of sideways trading, SUI performed quite strongly. Relative to the US dollar, it broke beyond the downward trend line from May 20 to the present, and emerged from a head-and-shoulders bottom pattern. The trading volume also showed the buying trend after SUI bottomed out. The disk is quite powerful.
More importantly, SUI is one of the few smart contract public chain currencies that has been able to outperform Bitcoin in the past three months.
In addition, there has been a lot of good news about the development of the Sui ecosystem in the past period. For example, the physical game console SuiPlay0x1, network-free transaction technology, and cooperation and integration with stable currency issuer Circle, etc. On the other hand, according to data from DeFiLlama, the performance of the total locked asset value of the Sui ecosystem in the past month is also quite good compared with other competitors.
In addition to the SUI token itself, the ecosystem's projects and meme coins (such as BLUB) are also worthy of attention.
Binance Copying Analysis
GTRadar – BULL
GTRadar – Balanced
GTRadar – Potential public chain OKX
- The yields of "GTRadar - BULL", "GTRadar - Balance" and "GTRadar - Potential Public Chain OKX" in the past 7 days are -5.63%, -1.62% and -2.74% respectively, and the yields in the past 30 days are - 7.93%, -8.1% and -10.56%.
- Currently, "GTRadar - BULL" holds a net long position of 30%, mainly in BTC.
- Currently, "GTRadar - Balanced" holds about 20% of its net long positions, mainly XRP and BTC.
- Currently, "GTRadar - Potential Public Chain" holds a net short position of about 5%, mainly ETH.
- The long-term returns of a follower who often changes his investment portfolio are not as good as those of a follower who continues to follow a single group. Don’t end the follower easily just because of a short-term retracement. Judging from the curve, the retracement is a good time to start following. In and out, on the contrary, the yield rate will be significantly reduced.
Hot news
OpenAI, a new artificial intelligence startup with more than 1 million paid users, is negotiating with investors and plans to raise $6.5 billion in funding, which will increase its valuation to $150 billion. At the same time, according to a report by The Information, OpenAI plans to release its new reasoning AI model "Strawberry" within the next two weeks.
Security firm Cyvers: Bitcoin ETFs could become a major target for North Korean hackers
A senior official at blockchain security firm Cyvers said North Korean hackers, including the Lazarus Group, may begin to shift their attacks to larger targets, including U.S. Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). ).
Pendle expands Bitcoin product line
According to the official announcement, Pendle has announced the expansion of its product line into the Bitcoin ecosystem and the launch of new products based on the Bitcoin ecological income network Corn and the Bitcoin re-pledge protocol Lombard.
Data tracked by digital asset research firm CCData shows that the bid-ask ratio in the Bitcoin (BTC) market shows active dip buying activity on the Kraken and Coinbase exchanges, while the average transaction size on the platform indicates that this demand comes from large transactions. who.
Coinbase announces the launch of wrapped Bitcoin cbBTC on Ethereum and the Base chain
U.S. cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase announced on Thursday the launch of cbBTC (Coinbase Wrapped BTC), an ERC20 token backed 1:1 by Coinbase-managed Bitcoin and a wrapped version of Bitcoin. cbBTC initially supports the Ethereum blockchain and the Base network supported by Coinbase, and is expected to expand to other chains in the future.
Avenir Capital, the family office of Huobi founder Li Lin, will establish Avenir Crypto, a quantitative fund of funds focusing on cryptocurrency. Avenir Crypto's first fund size is US$500 million, and Binance will serve as the fund's main trading venue.
Grayscale announces launch of XRP trust fund
Crypto asset management company Grayscale announced on Thursday the launch of the Grayscale XRP Trust, a closed-end fund that allows investors to gain exposure to the XRP token.
The micro strategy bought an additional 18,300 Bitcoins.
MicroStrategy disclosed that it had previously bought an additional 18,300 Bitcoins when Bitcoin was at $60,408. As of September 12, 2024, the company had acquired a total of 244,800 Bitcoins for approximately US$9.45 billion, with an average holding cost of approximately US$38,585.
Binance urges users to beware of new malware “Clipper”
Binance exchange issued a statement today stating that it has discovered a new type of malware called "Clipper" that can intercept data stored in the clipboard.
The ETH/BTC exchange rate fell to its lowest level since April 2021
The price of Ethereum plummeted on September 16. In addition to falling about 5% to below $2,300, the exchange rate of the ETH/BTC trading pair fell below 0.04, reaching a new low since April 2021.
Former U.S. President Trump was suspected of being shot and assassinated again while playing golf at the Trump International Golf Club in West Palm Beach, Florida on the afternoon of the 15th. According to reports, Secret Service agents discovered a suspect holding an AK-47 rifle during the investigation, and then opened fire on the suspect. However, the suspect was not subdued on the spot. Instead, he abandoned the gun and fled and was arrested on a nearby interstate highway.
DeFi project supported by Trump family confirms currency issuance rumors
The DeFi project "World Liberty Financial" supported by the Trump family confirmed in an X online voice chat on September 17 that it will issue the governance token WLFI and shared information about token distribution and public sale. Officials emphasized that there is no pre-sale, venture capital, and early buying of the token, and that most of the supply (62.66%) will be distributed in the upcoming public sale, and part of the net proceeds from this sale will go into the project. Multi-signature wallet treasury reserves.
MicroStrategy plans to sell 700 million magnesium convertible bonds!
According to an official press release, U.S.-listed company MicroStrategy plans to sell up to $700 million worth of convertible senior notes to raise funds to buy more Bitcoin and repurchase corporate debt. This is the company’s third issuance in 2024. corporate bonds.
According to data from on-chain analysis tool Arkham, Bhutan, a landlocked country between India and China, has accumulated 13,029 Bitcoins worth more than $780 million in recent years through mining operations operated by state-owned investment company Druk Holdings. It is equivalent to nearly one-third of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP), which also makes it the fifth largest country in the world in terms of Bitcoin holdings.
DBS Bank announces launch of cryptocurrency options trading and structured notes in Q4
DBS Bank has announced that it will launch financial products linked to the price of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). From the fourth quarter of 2024, institutional clients can invest in these cryptos through options trading and structured notes. assets. DBS said it would be the first bank in Asia to launch such financial products.
Dragonfly Capital seeks to raise $500 million for its fourth fund
According to Bloomberg, venture capital firm Dragonfly Capital is seeking to raise $500 million for its fourth fund, which will focus on early-stage projects. Dragonfly has successfully raised US$250 million and aims to complete the fundraising in the first quarter of next year.
The above content does not constitute any financial investment advice. All data comes from GT Radar official website announcements. Each user may have slight differences due to different entry and exit prices, and past performance does not represent future performance!
