U.S. stocks rose sharply, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 1.24% and the S&P 500 up 1.7%, both hitting record highs, while the Nasdaq rose 2.51%. The market's rise this time mainly benefited from the positive impact of the Fed's defensive interest rate cut. Although the Fed directly cut interest rates by 50 basis points this time, the market did not panic about the economic recession, but instead showed strong optimism. This is inseparable from the Fed's excellent expectation management strategy. Next, the market's focus will turn to the upcoming employment data. If employment remains strong, risky assets may rise further.
Bitcoin's trend still appears strong against this background, and the price has reached the $64,000-65,000 area near the pressure zone. There is strong resistance in this area, and Bitcoin may not easily break through this level. If there is a period of fluctuation at this position, the market will digest the pressure and the possibility of a breakthrough in the future will be higher. The current high trend of the market shows certain signs of a downward channel, and the current price is at the upper edge of the channel. If it breaks through strongly, the probability of resuming the upward trend will increase.
From a cyclical perspective, Bitcoin still follows its inherent cyclical pattern. Looking back at the mid-term bull markets in 2016 and 2020, the market experienced several months of adjustment after the initial rise, and then started a real bull market in 2017 and 2021. If the historical cycle repeats itself, Bitcoin's "real bull market" may arrive in 2025.
In addition, Ethereum also showed a linkage effect. With the arrival of the second half of the bull market, the exchange rate is expected to rise further after the oversold rebound. The Altcoin market has also been very active recently, with increased liquidity of funds. Many Altcoin have generally risen, bringing about an obvious money-making effect. This round of rise may be more sustainable, because most Altcoin have completed the bottom construction, and the strong rise in recent days is likely to be driven by the main funds. If the capital side continues to remain active, the market of the Altcoin market is expected to gradually open up.
At the same time, the total locked value (TVL) of the Sui network exceeded 1 billion US dollars, setting a record high. As a representative of high-performance public chains, I have always been optimistic about SUI. If Solana is the biggest competitor of Ethereum, then SUI is Solana's biggest competitor, no doubt about it.
In terms of on-chain data, Coinbase has finally turned bullish in the past 36 days after 103 days of bearish sentiment. This change also brings certain optimistic signals to the market. In terms of ETFs, the net inflow of the US Bitcoin spot ETF reached US$158 million on September 19, while the net inflow of the Ethereum spot ETF was US$5.24 million. This shows that the market demand for these two assets is still strong.
Finally, there is an interesting statistic that shows that the Federal Reserve has adjusted interest rates in almost every presidential election year since 1972. According to historical rules, interest rate cuts are often more conducive to the victory of opposition challengers, while interest rate hikes are more conducive to the re-election of the incumbent president. This rule may imply that Trump has a high chance of winning this election.
Finally, there are still many things that are not written down, such as specific opportunities and specific decisions. These things are often not something that can be summarized in one article.
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