As the 2024 election approaches, Vice President Kamala Harris has flipped the tables in four of the six swing states on Polymarket, including Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and most recently Nevada.
Vice President Harris's advantage is most pronounced in Michigan — where her odds are 66% — followed by Wisconsin at 58% and closer margins in Pennsylvania and Nevada at 52% and 51%, respectively.
Harris' odds in the 2024 presidential election on prediction markets have risen to 52% compared to Trump's 47% — a 5-point lead.
Odds for all six swing states and the popular vote. Source: Polymarket.
Trump's Odds Drop After Debate and Token Launch
Former President Trump dominated Polymarket’s odds early in the race. However, that gap has narrowed significantly since then, with the race now reflecting a close tie between the two candidates.
The electoral gap narrows. Source: Polymarket.
Trump's odds on the prediction platform dropped as much as 3% during the first debate with Harris due to an allegedly poor performance, but quickly recovered after the televised event — leveling the odds between Trump and Harris.
The 2024 Republican candidate also lost ground with some crypto voters after the former president announced the launch of a Token for the DeFi project World Liberty Financial. While some XEM it as a positive sign and said it would not affect their vote, others saw it as a scam .
Harris has yet to take a specific stance on crypto.
The Harris campaign released its policy platform in early September 2024, but did not mention crypto in its lengthy policy goals. However, the Harris-Walz campaign has proposed several policies that would increase government spending, including strengthening Social Security, a student loan assistance program, and a $25,000 subsidy for first-time homebuyers.
Investors, speculators, and executives in the crypto space have been actively involved in this election cycle — hoping to support pro-crypto candidates through public pressure campaigns, community outreach, and political donations.
Current country odds and map. Source: Polymarket.
Current market sentiment believes that a Trump term would be positive for crypto prices and a Harris term would be negative for prices. However, Geoff Kendrick, global head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered — a cross-border bank — believes that the price of Bitcoin (BTC) will reach $200,000 by the end of 2025 regardless of the election outcome.
