Original author: Zhou Zhou, Foresight News
There were more than 20,000 attendees at the main venue, more than 400 booths, and 281 peripheral activities counted by Foresight News alone... This year's TOKEN 2049 was extremely lively.
The narrative has changed this year. NFT and the metaverse are the core narratives of 2022, Ethereum L2 is a hot topic in 2023, and now Solana, Base, TON, and BTCFi are the ecosystems that people are most concerned about this year.
This year, the protagonist has changed. The crypto ecosystem is no longer dominated by American projects alone. Americans, Russians, and Chinese have all built their own crypto platforms. Ethereum is no longer the absolute overlord. The rise of Solana and TON has made people believe that they have the opportunity to match or even surpass Ethereum.
This year's capital has changed. The time in 2003 when you could raise all the primary investment by just attending a conference is over. Many entrepreneurs have found that there are not many investment institutions with sufficient funds this year, and they need to go to Europe and the United States to find funds.
Three years of TOKEN 2049, three completely different crypto industries. Bitcoin has not changed, but the crypto industry has undergone tremendous changes.
1. "The Birth of the New Four Heavenly Kings"
In the past year, most of the hot events have revolved around the four ecosystems of Solana, Base, TON, and BTCFi, and the same may be true in the coming year. The Matthew effect, the strong get stronger, and the weak get weaker. These four ecosystems have repeatedly demonstrated their strong innovation and ability to stir up trouble, and have shown a siphoning effect on capital. They will continue to be the tracks and directions that many entrepreneurs and investors focus on.
However, some practitioners still expressed concerns about BTCFi. "UXTO is not suitable for large-scale applications." "BTCFi is more of a nesting doll game. The essence of interest-bearing is to let latecomers pay the bill. Where is its positivity?" Although the Bitcoin ecosystem has experienced nearly two years of development since the birth of Ordi, many practitioners still expressed their concerns about whether BTCFi has long-term sustainability.
2. Solana, the most dynamic blockchain on earth
In order to gain a larger market share, Solana has unknowingly left other public chains far behind.
Solana may be the public chain ecosystem with the most projects on mobile phones. A person related to Jupiter told me that Jupiter will launch a mobile app soon. At present, Magic Eden, the largest NFT platform on Solana, Phantom, the largest wallet on Solana, Backpack, one of the largest DEX platforms on Solana, and Depin, the largest platform on Solana, have all launched mobile apps. From this point of view, compared with other crypto ecosystems, Solana ecosystem projects are already more prepared to compete for larger-scale users.
Solana is also the first public chain ecosystem to successfully develop a Web3 mobile phone (SAGA mobile phone). During 2049, the mobile phone JamboPhone 2 supported by the Solana ecosystem was officially released on Solana Breakpoint. It is also the first public chain ecosystem to successfully develop Depin (Helium). It is also the first ecosystem to expand and strengthen the meme platform in this cycle (Pump.fun). Recently, it has also strongly promoted the concept of PayFi.
The activity of the ecosystem has far exceeded that of other platforms, which may be one of the reasons why Solana ecosystem tokens account for 7 of the top 100 tokens. Judging from the performance of the top 100 ecosystem tokens, it is still far ahead of Base, TON, and BTCFi.
During the TOKEN 2049 event, Solana's event Solana Breakpoint was also widely spread. Various game consoles, rap, dancing, debates, mobile phone launches... were considered by many to be the best peripheral activities among hundreds of events, even comparable to the main venue of TOKEN 2049.
Solana remains the most active blockchain currently.
3. Telegram is the "global version of WeChat" and the "new center" of the crypto industry
A practitioner close to TOP revealed to me: Telegram will launch "Video Stream" soon, completely copying WeChat and creating a global version of WeChat.
Currently, Telegram's "WeChat Mini Program" has achieved initial success, and the "Telegram version of WeChat Pay" TON has also been successfully created. The next step for Telegram is to make videos to keep more users on Telegram.
In the cryptocurrency industry, Telegram's advantages cannot be replicated. Its users highly overlap with current cryptocurrency users. And a scary trend is that it will even become "a very important center" in the cryptocurrency industry. Currently, whether it is Binance, Bybit, Bitget, OKX, HashKey, Huobi and other leading exchanges, or some ecological project parties such as Blast, Base, Solana, etc., they are all building mini-programs on Telegram to grab a large chunk of user traffic.
At TOKEN 2049, I found that the project team of Depin wanted to develop on Telegram, the project team of AI application wanted to develop on Telegram, the project team of Base and Blast wanted to develop on Telegram, and the company doing Web2 taxi business (TADA) also wanted to develop on Telegram. Telegram embraces both Web2 and Web3. Some investors also believe that Telegram's successful transformation this time may even make Telegram itself the largest Web3 social application.
TON and Telegram are two different things. But in this process, TON will be one of the biggest beneficiaries.
The organization that holds the right to speak in the TON ecosystem is called TOP, which currently has more than 200 members, most of whom are Russians. Some of the most popular projects in the TON ecosystem, such as Notcoin, Catizen, and Ston.fi, are members of TOP. For entrepreneurs who want to get the greatest support from the TON ecosystem, they need to contact TOP.
4. Behind the false prosperity of data, bad money drives out good money
Where does Base's millions of active addresses come from every day? This problem also occurs in various ecosystems.
The night before TOKEN 2049, I posted a tweet titled “Is the traffic of Base exaggerated?” I mentioned that if a project has millions of active addresses per day, then haven’t we realized the dream of blockchain mass adoption?
DUN data shows that the total number of addresses on the Base chain has exceeded 44 million. On September 14 alone, there were 1.55 million active addresses on Base. However, are these data true? Analysis shows that the active addresses on that day should mainly come from Coinbase Wallet, Aerodrome, and cbBTC. However, it is difficult to count the real number of users.
It can only be counted that cbBTC had 2,472 holders on that day, with a total of 37,903 transfers; Aerodrome's most active fund pool WETH/USDC had only 1,049 addresses interacting with it in the past 24 hours. Where do the 1.55 million active addresses come from? The openness, transparency, and permissionlessness of blockchain have always been its praised advantages, but now it is still inevitable that false data is prevalent.
After analyzing Base's multiple data including protocol revenue, I am sure that Base is indeed the fastest growing L2. However, this does not prevent me from believing that Base's current traffic is exaggerated, although this behavior is not caused by Base.
In addition to Base, TON and Solana all have such problems. For example, what are the real users of TON games on the chain? How many of them are bots? How much of Solana's data is meme and how much is real application? And these blockchain ecosystems mentioned are still the best developed.
Behind the false prosperity of data, there is a more embarrassing problem. When we unveil the emperor's new clothes, the truth is too cruel. When the most real but bleak data of the project is placed in front of us, will investors, retail investors, and builders still accept it calmly and still be optimistic about it?
When survival issues arise, the cost of cheating will not be that high for many people. The phenomenon of bad money driving out good money continues to occur in the blockchain world.
5. Looking to the future from now, five directions to achieve mass adoption
Finding Web3 products that can achieve mass adoption and finding real application scenarios is still one of the most urgent and important things in this industry. After attending TOKEN 2049 and communicating with participants from various tracks, five possible directions were pointed out by the participants.
1. Next generation TG mini-games. Mini-games like Catizen, which have tens of millions of users, have proven the potential of this track. It is worth looking forward to the next generation of TG mini-games.
Second: Prediction platforms such as Polymarket, and more products that change the business model due to changes in payment methods. Stablecoin USDT has achieved mass adoption, and Web3 applications directly related to stablecoins may be the next product to achieve large-scale application. Currently, platforms such as Base, Blast, TON, Wintermutue, DYDY, and BitMEX have launched prediction market platforms. At present, the model of Polymarket is more like a stock platform, and there is a lack of PVP version of the prediction market in the market. At the same time, TADA also has a different meaning for the product due to the different payment methods, and it was popular during TOKEN 2049.
Three: Web3 social networking is endless and will continue to grow. Although Friend Tech failed, Warpcast is still persisting, and there are more projects in the Farcaster protocol that have not been discovered. When I was hiking with Yawn, the founder of StepN, Yawn told me that he was also seriously considering the possibility of map social networking.
Fourth: TADA, from the real scenario of Web2 to Web3. The founder of TADA is a Korean who later worked in cross-border transportation in Hong Kong, and then became the second largest taxi company in Singapore, and has markets in many countries in Southeast Asia. In the future, there may be more cross-border Web2 companies that can develop their businesses in both the traditional stock market and the cryptocurrency market. TADA has issued a coin called MVL in 2018, and its current market value is nearly 100 million US dollars. This may be one of the reasons why it can occupy the market in Singapore's taxi market with such a low fee.
Five: RWA and Depin. These two tracks are also excellent entrances for more traditional world funds to enter the crypto industry. During this TOKEN 2049, some investors compared RWA and Depin, believing that although the progress of these two tracks will be relatively slow, they have a greater chance of realizing the vision of large-scale products. "If you can use Token to buy Japanese stocks, Hong Kong funds, US bonds, and European real estate with one click, this will be a huge market. Most investors don't actually care about which platform to trade on." said a practitioner.
Of course, I believe that the real mass adoption products are still growing quietly in some corner.
6. The crypto world is a huge dating market
“The crypto world is a huge blind date market,” said Vivi from the TON public chain.
Vivi said: "Everyone wants to develop on a good public chain, but going with the idea of currying favor with someone powerful may not be worth the effort. Good public chains only have so many resources and they will not be allocated to ordinary entrepreneurs." It is also worth mentioning that although the poorer public chain ecosystem will provide more resource support to ordinary Web3 projects, the probability of success in developing in these ecosystems is low.
“In a blind date (between public chains and entrepreneurs), neither party wants to suffer a loss. The weaker party often wants to take advantage, but they need to think about why. The stronger party is not a fool,” said Vivi.
For ordinary entrepreneurs, give up fantasies. If you don’t have resources, go to a weaker ecosystem and survive first. For ordinary public chains, put more resources in a few leading projects and use more funds to attract project parties instead of "freeloading".
Fortunately, today’s public chain ecosystem has enough options for entrepreneurs:
L1: Ethereum, Solana, TON, Sui, Aptos, Sei, berachain, Zetachain, Aleo, TRON, etc.
L2: Base, Arbitrum, ZK, Scroll, Blast, Scroll, HashKey Chain, BSC, Morph, etc.
The crypto world is a huge dating market. For ordinary entrepreneurs, they need to place bets when no one is interested and seize the early core position of the potential public chain ecosystem. When it (the public chain) has become tall, rich and handsome, think about whether you (the project owner) are also fair, rich and beautiful. The same is true in reverse.
7. Entrepreneurs are lonely and need to stick together
During TOKEN 2049, I attended the closing party of the third phase of the Creation Camp of the Web3 incubator, Wanwudao. The trainees were all founders of Web3 startups, and many of them were in the early stages of project development.
Wanwudao has opened up seven sections, including: TON, Solana, BTC, ETH, AI, Depin, RWA, etc. Each section recruits entrepreneurs in the corresponding track, and each section has a "leader-like figure" in this track as the core coach. Of course, the mentor can be replaced if he is no longer suitable.
Some entrepreneurs asked me whether they should join an incubator. I also asked many entrepreneurs in incubators why they came to the incubator. They all had their own answers, but the meaning they expressed was basically the same: entrepreneurs are too lonely and just want to talk to people who share the same frequency.
Entrepreneurs are the future of the industry, their quality is the quality of the future industry, and their quality is the quality of the future industry. They need more communication and more cooperation, and this may be the significance of a series of "industry infrastructure" such as TOEKN 2049 and Web3 incubator.
8. This may be the most lively TOKEN 2049 in history
There were more than 20,000 attendees at the main venue, more than 400 booths, and Foresight News alone counted 281 peripheral activities. This time, TOKEN 2049 not only had a large number of participants, which was twice as many as last year, but many peripheral activities also reached new heights.
For example, Solana Breakpoint, Solana co-founder Toly said that this was the best Breakpoint so far, and the singing, dancing and rap games were very lively. Another example is the world's first crypto-themed immersive drama "Decode: Legacy" organized by HashKey Capital, which turned Crypto into a literary work. StepN and HashKey Capital and other projects also organized park hiking activities in Singapore.
The ecosystems that hosted the most events this time include: Solana, Base, BTCFi, TON; the institutions that hosted the most events include Bitget, HashKey, etc.
For example, Bitget held 9 events of varying sizes during TOKEN 2049, including a co-hosted music festival for 2,000 people, a CEO meet-up, a Spanish league cooperation signing ceremony, and 5 regional channel and KOL gatherings (Turkey, CIS, SEA, EN), etc. This does not include conferences held by related companies such as Bitget Wallet and Morph.
For example, HashKey Group announced 10 TOKEN 2049-related events, including hiking, crypto-themed immersive drama, TON, AI and other theme events. Another example is that Base held 6 events of varying sizes during TOKEN 2049.
As one of the fastest growing and largest institutions in the past year, they spared no effort to flex their muscles in TOKEN 2049.
9. Three years of TOKEN 2049, three rounds of era change
Crypto is developing rapidly. In the past three years, TOKEN 2049 feels like three completely different crypto industries.
In 2022, TOKEN 2049, NFT and Metaverse were the mainstream tracks at that time. At that time, there was a serious inequality between Eastern and Western projects. Western VCs almost no longer considered Eastern projects, and pessimism about Chinese projects was growing. In such a bull-to-bear process, especially with the collapse of FTX and Luna, the credibility of the crypto industry was severely damaged. Governments in many countries tightened their crypto policies, and some people felt that the industry was going to die.
In 2023, there is almost nothing new in TOKEN 2049 except Ordi, but some real builders are full of expectations for the future. During this period, many VCs invested heavily, hoping to make early arrangements during the transformation from bear to bull market and reap the rewards in the bull market. "Go to TOKEN 2049 or other meetings, and the project party will raise all the funds in a short time." said an investor.
In 2024, TOKEN 2049, Solana, Base, and TON have risen strongly. However, for a long time, memes were popular and VC coins were seriously FUD. In this TOKEN 2049, there was not much money to invest in the primary market. However, many practitioners are still looking forward to the big bull market in 2025. In addition to expectations, more practitioners have begun to look at the development of the industry rationally, calling for more ideas to build Web3, rather than holding the mentality of following the cycle to make a profit and leave.
Three years of TOKEN 2049, three rounds of changes in the times, what has not changed is Bitcoin, what has changed is us. On this road, the tides rise and fall, and people come and go. We have come a long way, and there is still a long way to go.
