1. Attention Value-Market Key Points
1. Market conditions
(1) Macro environment:
Lagarde warns that the global economy is facing the pressure of a great depression and emphasizes that the central bank's ability to respond has been improved
U.S. stocks hit a record high after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points, but European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde warned that the global economy faces serious challenges, similar to the pressure of the Great Depression of the last century. In a speech at the International Monetary Fund in Washington, Lagarde mentioned that the current global economy is affected by factors such as "economic nationalism", the collapse of global trade and technological progress, which are similar to the situation in the 1920s.
She pointed out that the current epidemic, European conflicts and energy crises are the most serious disruptions since the last century, and these factors have permanently changed global economic activities. Although monetary policy has historically exacerbated economic crises, policymakers today are better equipped to deal with structural changes. Lagarde stressed that the central bank's tools to maintain price stability have proven effective, especially after the interest rate hike in 2022, inflation has fallen rapidly, with the euro area's annual inflation rate falling from 10.6% in October 2022 to 2.2% in August 2023.
Still, she warned that challenges to globalization, the partial unravelling of supply chains, the market power of tech giants and the development of artificial intelligence would continue to test policymakers. She said uncertainty for the central bank would remain high in the future and that it would delve into these issues in its upcoming strategic review.
(2) Web3 field:
SEC approves Bitcoin options listing, analysts expect to attract more investment
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) recently approved the listing of options contracts related to the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF applied by Nasdaq, which marks that an important obstacle to Bitcoin options trading has been cleared. Analysts pointed out that this move will attract more investors and bring higher liquidity to ETFs, and other similar options are expected to be approved soon.
The SEC emphasized that this approval will allow investors to hedge their Bitcoin positions in the options market to cope with its inherent volatility. iShares Bitcoin Trust is the most liquid spot Bitcoin ETF and meets the requirements for trading options. The SEC also stated that it will implement a strict regulatory mechanism to prevent market manipulation and ensure that transactions are carried out in an orderly manner.
Although the SEC has approved these contracts, they still need further approval from the Options Clearing Corporation and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission before they can begin trading. Currently, other exchanges are also applying to launch options products related to iShares funds and other spot Bitcoin ETFs. Analysts believe that the SEC's decision is an important step in the listing of options, which will help increase market activity and attract large-scale investment.
2. Hot events
Macro environment:
Qualcomm's proposed acquisition of Intel triggers sharp fluctuations in stock prices
The rumor of Qualcomm and Intel's acquisition caused market fluctuations. After the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved the acquisition of Intel by Qualcomm, Intel's stock price rose by more than 10% to $23.12 during the trading session on September 20, and then narrowed to 3.3% at the close. At the same time, Qualcomm's stock price fell due to market reaction, and the intraday decline once widened to 5.5%.
The acquisition discussion is the second exposure in two weeks, and analysts believe that this move may attract more investors and bring liquidity to related ETFs. Although the transaction has not been determined, people familiar with the matter warned that if a transaction is completed, it will face challenges in regulatory review.
Intel is currently in a major crisis. Its recent financial report shows a sharp drop in revenue and plans to lay off about 15,000 employees. The departure of senior executives and the failure of technical tests have also exacerbated the company's difficulties. To meet the challenges, Intel is considering a variety of self-rescue plans, including splitting its business and selling some assets.
Overall, Qualcomm's potential acquisition of Intel may not only reshape the market positions of the two companies, but may also have a profound impact on the entire chip industry.
Web3 Field:
Circle founder: IPO plans are being pushed forward and the headquarters will be moved to Wall Street next year
ChainCatcher reported that according to Cointelegraph, Jeremy Allaire, founder and CEO of Circle, the issuer of the stablecoin USDC, said that it is advancing its initial public offering (IPO) plan and plans to move its headquarters to Wall Street in 2025.
It is reported that Circle applied for an initial public offering (IPO) in January this year and is currently awaiting approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
3. Hot topic narrative
Hemi Network is a modular Layer-2 protocol designed to provide superior scalability, security, and interoperability, and is powered by Bitcoin and Ethereum. Unlike other projects that view Bitcoin and Ethereum as independent ecosystems, Hemi views them as components of a single super network, which unlocks new programmability, portability, and potential.
Recently, Hemi Labs has completed a financing of US$15 million. This round of financing was jointly led by Binance Labs, Breyer Capital and Big Brain Holdings, and participated by Crypto.com, Jihan Wu and others.
At the heart of Hemi is the Hemi Virtual Machine (hVM), which integrates a full Bitcoin node within the Ethereum Virtual Machine. Combined with the Hemi Bitcoin Kit (hBK), developers have a familiar and powerful platform to create Hemi decentralized applications (hApps).
To optimize network performance and security, Hemi uses a unique consensus mechanism called Proof-of-Proof (PoP). PoP miners are responsible for collecting key network details and publishing them on Bitcoin, directly linking Hemi's security to Bitcoin's proven system. This approach provides dual protection, leveraging Bitcoin's PoW system as the basis for resolving disputes and ensuring credibility.
Hemi Network was co-founded by early Bitcoin developer Jeff Garzik and blockchain security pioneer Max Sanchez. Jeff Garzik worked with Satoshi Nakamoto and has long been a core figure in the development and commercialization of open source software for Bitcoin technology. He served as a Bitcoin core developer for 5 years. Max Sanchez is the co-founder and CTO. He co-created the PoP protocol and led the design of a new protocol optimized for PoP. The team has nearly 30 members, most of whom are experienced development engineers.
Hemi Network launched an incentive testnet in July this year, where ordinary users can earn points by inviting and sharing links. Hemi is scheduled to launch the mainnet in the fourth quarter of this year.
4. Potential Catalyst
Jeff Park, head of strategy at Bitwise Alpha, said on the X platform that the SEC's approval of BlackRock's Bitcoin spot ETF options trading will lead to an explosive rise in Bitcoin. He believes that this is the biggest progress that the cryptocurrency market may have made, marking the first time that the notional value of Bitcoin will be "partially banked" through ETF options. This decision will enable Bitcoin to obtain synthetic notional exposure in a regulated market, which may grow exponentially.
Park pointed out that Bitcoin’s unique volatility characteristics mean that when the spot price rises, volatility will also increase, thus accelerating the price increase. He mentioned that traders who short Gamma may cause a Gamma run when hedging, further driving up the price of Bitcoin.
In summary, the emergence of the Bitcoin ETF options market is the first time in financial history that a supply-constrained commodity has been regulated with leverage, which may trigger a crazy market reaction, but the decentralized nature of Bitcoin ensures that its market will not be completely shut down.
2. Attention Value-Hot Projects
1. Social media hot spots
Ethereum is a decentralized, open-source public blockchain platform with smart contract functions. With the continuous development of Ethereum 2.0 and Layer2, it has become one of the most widely used blockchains. In July this year, the Ethereum spot ETF was officially approved for listing and trading. Although $ETH has fallen sharply in recent days due to reduced income and whale withdrawal, the market is still mainly optimistic due to its low inflation rate and strong development capabilities.
Key projects:
DOT
Polkadot ($DOT) is a cross-chain protocol designed to connect and protect different blockchains. It provides interconnectivity and interoperability between them, enabling independent chains to securely exchange information and perform transactions without relying on trusted third parties. This allows cross-chain transmission of data or assets between different blockchains, as well as the development of cross-chain DApps using the Polkadot network. Recently, the project launched a mechanism called Agile Coretime, which will introduce a flexible block space model and replace the traditional static auction system with a dynamic method that adjusts resource availability according to demand.
2. Smart money builds a position
Smart money holdings
Source: ChainEDGE, Dot Labs
Project Introduction:
1. DOGGO (@DoggoEthDog /X)
$DOGGO originated from the tweet of the founder of Dogecoin, "what happened to poor doggo", and was accompanied by a picture of a dog, a Shiba Inu living in China. Recently, AscendEX (formerly BitMax) launched $DOGGO for the first time.
2. $michi (@michionsolana /X)
$michi is a cryptocurrency based on the Solana blockchain that aims to combine meme culture with a community-driven economic model. $michi's design is inspired by a cute cat image and aims to attract a wide range of user groups, especially fans of meme culture.
Smart money flows in
Source: ChainEDGE, Dot Labs
Project Introduction:
1. BURGER(@BTCCryptoBurger /X)
U.S. presidential candidate Trump used Bitcoin to buy a cheeseburger at PubKey, a Bitcoin-themed bar near New York University, jokingly calling it a "Crypto Burger," which quickly popularized the concept of "BURGER." The eponymous token $BURGER rose and returned to zero in a short period of time, then quickly rose again, increasing its market value from $5,000 to a maximum of $5 million in just one morning.
2. tremp (@dolandtremp_sol /X)
Doland Tremp is a Solana-based misspelled meme coin, TREMP is a parody token that misspells Donald Trump's name. After performing well in the first half of 2024, political finance (PolitiFi) tokens such as $TREMP are currently falling, possibly due to a lack of new holders entering the market, with $TREMP trading nearly 90% below its peak total market capitalization.
3. Attention Value-Sector Rotation
1. Hot topics
Source: Dune, Dot Labs
Source: Dune, Dot Labs
2. Inside the plate
Source: Dune, Dot Labs
