Odaily星球日报讯 美联储自四年多以来首次降息并选择降息 50 个基点后，芝加哥商品交易所的 FedWatch 工具显示交易员预计美联储将在 11 月 7 日的下次会议上再次降息，目前的押注倾向于再降息 50 个基点。分析认为，本周四比特币突破 6.5 万美元关口，“催化剂”可能来自国内推出的经济刺激政策，而随着比特币价格的上涨，人们对最近低迷的美国现货比特币 ETF 重新产生了兴趣，据 Farside Investors 数据显示，贝莱德的 iShares Bitcoin Trust （IBIT）周三流入资金巨大，投资者向该基金注入了近 1.85 亿美元的新资金，此前一天流入资金为 9890 万美元，而此前几周，随着比特币价格走势不佳，流入资金持平甚至为负。（Coindesk）

分析：BTC突破6.5万美元刺激美国现货比特币ETF投资兴趣升温

Odaily Odaily: After the Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the first time in more than four years and chose to cut interest rates by 50 basis points, the FedWatch tool of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange showed that traders expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates again at the next meeting on November 7, and current bets tend to cut interest rates by another 50 basis points. Analysts believe that Bitcoin broke through the $65,000 mark on Thursday, and the &quot;catalyst&quot; may come from the economic stimulus policies launched domestically. As the price of Bitcoin rises, people have regained interest in the recently sluggish U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF. According to Farside Investors data, BlackRock&#39;s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) received huge inflows on Wednesday, with investors injecting nearly $185 million in new funds into the fund. The previous day&#39;s inflows were $98.9 million, and in the previous few weeks, as Bitcoin prices performed poorly, inflows were flat or even negative. (Coindesk)

Analysis: BTC breaks through $65,000 to stimulate U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF investment interest

Odaily reports that according to BlackRock's official data update, as of September 24, the holdings of its spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund IBIT reached 359,279.7658 BTC, worth approximately $22,959,101,582.85.

BlackRock Bitcoin ETF's holdings increased to approximately 359,279 BTC as of September 24

Odaily reports that in its latest report, 10x Research stated that after the FOMC meeting on July 31, the Federal Reserve will delay the key interest rate cut decision to September, and the issuance of stablecoins has increased sharply. In the coming weeks, nearly $10 billion in stablecoin issuance will flood the cryptocurrency market with liquidity, far exceeding the liquidity of the Bitcoin ETF. Circle, which typically caters to more regulated institutions, has seen a 40% increase in stablecoin inflows recently, indicating an increase in allocation by large market participants. The minting of USDC may indicate an increase in DeFi activity. So far this year, stablecoin inflows have reached $35 billion, bringing the total value of circulating stablecoins to $160 billion. 

After the July FOMC meeting, US bond yields fell sharply, with the 10-year US Treasury yield falling below the 4.0% threshold, triggering a resurgence in DeFi activity. In August, Aave's lending platform monthly fees soared to $43 million, exceeding the March 2024 peak of $42 million. Although activity slowed in September, it is likely to rebound after the Federal Reserve's recent rate cuts.

Significant changes occurred after last week's FOMC meeting, with Bitcoin's dominance weakening and Ethereum's gas fees soaring, driven by a surge in Altcoin activity across the ecosystem. If the Federal Reserve remains willing to cut rates, the pursuit of high-beta Altcoins may gain further momentum. Retail cryptocurrency trading activity in South Korea has supported this trend, with daily trading volumes currently hovering around $2 billion, although still lower than the $13 billion peak in early March 2024.

If Trump is re-elected, he may seek to overstimulate the US economy, which could force the Federal Reserve to reverse its rate cut cycle as early as the first half of 2025. However, the current focus is on Bitcoin's recent breakout above $65,000, with a target of $70,000 in the next two weeks and the potential to set a new all-time high by the end of October. Additionally, the likelihood of a fourth-quarter rally is extremely high, with the upside potentially starting earlier.

10x Research: Bitcoin is expected to reach $70,000 in the next two weeks and hit a new high at the end of October

On Tuesday after the US market close, Bitcoin broke through $64,000, and traders have raised the possibility of the Federal Reserve's second consecutive 50-basis-point rate cut to 50%.
In addition: FLOKI's fundamentals have driven the price to soar.
BTC rose 1%, with the trading price approaching $64,000 during the Asian trading session.
Polymarket traders believe the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by another 50 basis points is 50%.
BTC showed signs of strength on Wednesday, regaining the $64,000 level in early Asian trading, but later retreated.