1. The value of attention
1. Market conditions
(1) Macro environment:
l Prospects for Fed rate cuts: A small rate cut could trigger a sell-off in U.S. bonds
Glen Capelo, managing director of fixed income at Mischler Financial Group, said that if the Fed chooses to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, it may lead to a sell-off in U.S. Treasuries, but this outcome depends largely on Powell's press conference. Michael Rosen, managing partner and chief investment officer of Angeles Investments, believes that the market is pricing in too aggressively the pace of the Fed's rate cuts, and currently expects a 250 basis point rate cut next year, a magnitude that is only possible in a recession. Therefore, he believes that the decline in short-term U.S. Treasury yields will be less than the market expects, and long-term yields may even rise from now on.
(2) Web3 field:
l Hedge fund boss predicts: Fed rate cut will push Bitcoin to $100,000 this year
Sky Bridge founder Anthony Scaramucci said that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates by 50 basis points tonight, which is the beginning of a cumulative rate cut of at least 150 basis points in the next 18 months. He believes that this is good for asset prices in the United States and the world. Driven by a series of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and clearer cryptocurrency regulation in the United States, Bitcoin will hit a record high of $100,000 by the end of the year.
Scaramucci is also optimistic about the future prospects of cryptocurrency policy. He expects that bipartisan legislation will be passed early in the next U.S. Congressional term to support the development of cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin and stablecoins. At the same time, crypto rules under the Harris administration will also be beneficial to the industry, as advisers to his campaign team said they would support measures that help the industry develop while maintaining appropriate supervision.
2. Hot events
Macro environment:
Intel announced an important cooperation with Amazon and plans to separate its chip foundry business into a subsidiary
Intel has recently announced a number of good news, including plans to separate its chip foundry business into a subsidiary and reach an important cooperation with Amazon. The company will produce customized AI chips for Amazon's cloud services, and this cooperation is expected to bring Intel billions of dollars in revenue. Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger said that this transformation marks an important progress in the company's efforts to revitalize its business.
In addition, Intel has also won a contract worth up to $3.5 billion to manufacture semiconductor components for the Pentagon and received $3 billion in government support through the Chip and Science Act. These measures will help Intel enhance its market competitiveness.
In order to focus on its core markets, Intel decided to suspend new factory construction projects in Poland and Germany and planned to lay off 15,000 employees to save costs. Despite the pressure of declining sales and financial losses, Intel's stock price rose 6.4% due to these good news and rose more than 10% in after-hours trading.
BlackRock and Microsoft jointly launch $30 billion AI infrastructure fund, with future investment potential of $100 billion
BlackRock and Microsoft jointly announced on September 17 that they plan to launch a fund called the Global AI Infrastructure Investment Partnership (GAIIP), with an initial goal of raising $30 billion and a total investment potential of $100 billion in the future. The fund aims to invest in artificial intelligence (AI)-related infrastructure, including data centers and energy projects, to meet the growing demand for computing power.
GAIIP's general partners include Microsoft and MGX, an investment company backed by the Abu Dhabi government, while NVIDIA will provide technical support and expertise. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said the investment will unlock trillions of dollars in long-term investment opportunities and drive economic growth and job creation.
The fund will mainly focus on the US market, aiming to build and expand data centers and related energy infrastructure to support the innovation and development of AI technology. Fink emphasized that data centers are the cornerstone of the digital economy, and related investments will promote the expansion of the AI ecosystem.
Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella also noted that the new fund will help drive innovation in all sectors of the economy, while Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang mentioned that accelerated computing and generative AI are driving growing demand for AI infrastructure.
Web3 Field:
World Liberty Financial, a new cryptocurrency project supported by the Trump family, was officially disclosed on September 16. The project aims to become a banking platform for cryptocurrency. The project will launch a token called WLFI, 20% of the tokens will be allocated to the founding team, including the Trump family, 17% will be used for user rewards, and the remaining 63% will be available for public purchase, and the tokens will not be pre-sold.
Trump announced the project on social media X and mentioned that his views on blockchain and cryptocurrency have changed. He criticized cryptocurrency during his presidency, but now supports the development of the industry. Donald Trump Jr. also pointed out that decentralized finance (DeFi) eliminates political factors in the banking industry.
World Liberty Financial aims to encourage the public to borrow, lend and invest in cryptocurrencies, despite concerns about the transparency of its founding team's shareholdings, which could pose risks of quick profits. The launch of the project has raised questions about whether Trump is using his political influence to serve his business interests.
3. Hot topic narrative
GalaChain is a Layer 1 blockchain built specifically for the entertainment sector, developed by Gala to support its expanding Web3 entertainment ecosystem. Built on Hyperledger Fabric (HLF), the blockchain is fast, secure and scalable, and is suitable for multiple fields such as games, music and movies.
GalaChain, as the core of the Gala ecosystem, has been successfully applied to multiple games and entertainment projects, including SpiderTanks, Champions Arena, and music streaming platform Gala Music. It is designed to solve the problems of high latency and high cost of traditional blockchains, thereby providing users with a seamless experience. GalaChain's $GALA token is its basic functional token, mainly used for transaction fees and rewards for founder node operators.
Since its inception, Gala has gradually become a leader in the Web3 entertainment field, collaborating with many well-known companies and individuals, including Universal Pictures, AMC Networks, and Snoop Dogg. These collaborations have not only increased the popularity of GalaChain, but also brought more users and applications to its ecosystem.
GalaChain's technology is based on Hyperledger Fabric, a modular architecture that allows customization to specific needs. Unlike other blockchains, GalaChain uses a deterministic consensus algorithm to ensure the finality and accuracy of transactions, thereby eliminating the risk of ledger forks. In addition, GalaChain supports a network of founder nodes, which not only maintain decentralized infrastructure, but also receive $GALA token rewards for running nodes.
GalaChain relies on a network of founder nodes, which are limited to 50,000 nodes. Operators support the network by providing computing power. Each founder node is rewarded with $GALA tokens per day. In addition, GalaChain allows developers to create custom tokens and enable direct exchange between tokens through GalaSwap.
Gala was founded in 2018 by Zynga co-founder Eric Schiermeyer, whose team members have been involved in the development of several popular social games, including Farmville 2, Words with Friends, and Zynga Poker. As a leader in interactive entertainment, Zynga's influence continues in Gala's Common Ground World. Gala's partner network includes well-known companies such as Universal Pictures' DreamWorks Animation, AMC Networks, and NBCUniversal, as well as legendary game developers Peter Molyneux and Will Wright, and music industry Snoop Dogg and Ice Cube.
Looking ahead, GalaChain will continue to expand its ecosystem. New SDKs and creator toolkits will be launched in 2024 to support a wider range of developers and innovators. In addition, GalaChain also plans to build cross-chain bridges with other blockchain ecosystems to enhance interoperability. These developments will further consolidate GalaChain's leadership in the Web3 entertainment sector and promote the expansion of its technology to other industries.
4. Potential Catalyst
Arthur Hayes, founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom, said at the Token2049 conference that the Federal Reserve will begin a rate cut cycle today. He believes that as long as the Fed's rate cuts cause the U.S. Treasury yield to fall below 4%, "Internet bonds" such as Ethereum, which offer about 4% staking returns, will become more attractive, thus triggering a new round of Ethereum bull market.
Hayes also predicted that as the Fed cuts interest rates, new winners and losers will emerge in the cryptocurrency market. Tokens with yields exceeding U.S. Treasury bonds, such as ENA, ETH, ETHFI, PENDLE, etc., will become winners. Tokens based on real estate mortgages, such as ONDO, will become losers.
2. Attention Value-Hot Projects
1. Social media hot spots
Ethereum is a decentralized, open-source public blockchain platform with smart contract functions. With the continuous development of Ethereum 2.0 and Layer2, it has become one of the most widely used blockchains. In July this year, the Ethereum spot ETF was officially approved for listing and trading. Although $ETH has fallen sharply in recent days due to reduced income and whale withdrawal, the market is still mainly optimistic due to its low inflation rate and strong development capabilities.
Key projects:
SUI
Sui is a decentralized layer 1 blockchain developed by Mysten Labs that provides excellent transaction speed at low cost. On May 3, 2023, Sui mainnet was launched, and then the price of its token $SUI once reached $2, an increase of 2000%.
In the recent sluggish cryptocurrency market, $SUI has performed well. It has actively launched various updates, including the Sui Bridge testnet, incentive plans, and the new consensus algorithm Mysticeti. It also announced that it will introduce $USDC into its ecosystem to support US dollar-backed digital applications in the fields of DeFi, gaming, and e-commerce. In addition, Grayscale launched the Sui Trust Fund on August 7, which further boosted Sui's popularity.
2. Smart money builds a position
Smart money holdings
Source: ChainEDGE, Dot Labs
Project Introduction:
1. WOJAK (@wojakcoineth /X)
$WOJAK is a cryptocurrency based on meme culture. Its name comes from the popular Wojak emoticons on the Internet, which are usually used to express various emotions and experiences. This token has risen rapidly in recent years and attracted the attention of a large number of investors.
2. $michi (@michionsolana /X)
$michi is a cryptocurrency based on the Solana blockchain that aims to combine meme culture with a community-driven economic model. $michi's design is inspired by a cute cat image and aims to attract a wide range of user groups, especially fans of meme culture.
Smart money flows in
Source: ChainEDGE, Dot Labs
Project Introduction:
1. COW (@CoWSwap /X)
The core of CoW Protocol lies in its unique trading mechanism, namely "Coincidence of Wants" (CoWs). This mechanism merges multiple transactions and finds the best solution through batch auctions, thereby providing better prices than traditional decentralized exchanges. Users only need to sign the intention to exchange instead of directly executing the transaction, which reduces the execution risk and cost.
2. degod (@DeGodsNFT /X)
DeGods is a deflationary NFT project based on the Solana blockchain, consisting of 10,000 unique DeGods, which aims to enhance its value through art and community participation. The project combines themes of mythology and death to design visually impactful digital artworks.
3. Attention Value-Sector Rotation
1. Hot topics
Source: Dune, Dot Labs
Source: Dune, Dot Labs
2. Inside the plate
Source: Dune, Dot Labs
