After BTC broke through 70k on July 29, a downward trend started. It reached 49k on August 5 and rebounded to 65k. It continued to fall and formed a Double Botto structure around 53k on September 6. On September 19, the Federal Reserve confirmed a rate cut, and BTC rose accordingly. During the US trading session on September 26, along with the strong rise of the US stock index, BTC broke through the previous high of 65k, destroying the structure of lower lows and higher highs.
Is this a real destruction of the falling structure or a false breakthrough of the previous high? How to understand it from a technical perspective? How to judge the future market based on the depth of the contract/spot order book and the liquidation map? Whether the macro environment can support the second half of the bull market? How will the market price interest rate cuts in the future? Trading bloggers have their own opinions.
Technical analysis flow
@Crypto_Scient believes that the trend of USDT.D can be used to speculate on the subsequent development of BTC: if USDT.D follows the red path, seizes liquidity in the daily liquidity gathering area, and then steps back on the rising trend line and rises, then BTC will show a short trend; if USDT.D follows the blue path, breaks through the trend and reverses the trend, then BTC will go out of the long trend and reach a historical high. Now we need to wait and observe USDT.D to give a definite signal before deciding on the subsequent trading strategy.
@AltcoinSherpa thinks bearish price action here, needs to get liquidity on BTC at 40k.
@trader_koala believes that observation is needed here and has prepared two trading strategies: if the support level retracement is effective, buy near the order block; if the support level fails, buy in a deeper decline. If there is a deeper decline such as the daily K body closing below about 59, then the upward target is 68k-70k.
@CryptosLaowai believes that BTC has captured 65k+ liquidity, and a sharp drop may occur here. The upward trend of BTC since 53k is in the form of an upward expanding wedge. When the wedge is nearing the end, there will be a choice of direction, and it is likely to go down. The goal is to retrace the support of 57-59, and then capture the liquidity of the upward trend line at about 68k and then fall.
@0xtaibai believes that BTC is stagnant at the resistance level of the previous high of the 4-hour level. The breakthrough has not been successful. It may consolidate, but there is no reversal structure of decline. If the subsequent short structure breaks through and the rebound fails, it will try to short. Mainly observe the potential shock range of the green area. At present, the overall upward trend has not been broken. It is expected to consolidate or a small pullback and then continue to rise.
@goukiller believes that in the weekly level game, Pivot Point's R3 defense was successful and is still in an upward trend. The subsequent upward targets are R4 68.1k and R5 79k.
Data analysis flow
@xiaomo924 believes that BTC has broken through the previous high, but the bullish momentum has not continued. If there is no continuous buying, it will need to consolidate and pull back in a short period of time. In the future, we need to pay attention to the retracement strength of the EMA20 and 50 at the 4-hour level to see if there is support there.
The difference in contract order depth during the pull-up is greater than the difference in spot order depth, which means that the contract buying volume is greater than the spot. If there is no more spot buying volume in the future, there will be a risk of false breakthroughs.
The long-short ratio has reached a low level again. The whale is in a state of flat long. We need to pay attention to the callback after the release of short-term demand.
@Xbt886 found from the order book that there are a large number of sell orders at 66-66.7k and a large number of buy orders at 62-63k. The overall trend is bullish and a pullback can be expected. However, it is also possible that it is just to attract pending orders and there will be no actual transactions. Don't blindly short at 62-63k. At present, those who have obtained short liquidity and chased high have been trapped. It is still necessary to observe conservatively in the future.
Macro analysis flow
@Phyrex_Ni believes that the bull market is still uncertain. The turnover of BTC on the chain is low, and the biggest possibility of rising is still due to low liquidity. Yellen's speech revealed two key points in the macro environment: one is that the current US economy is still good and there is a possibility of a soft landing. The second is that although the labor market is currently stable, it is still relatively fragile, and the Federal Reserve needs to continue to cut interest rates to prevent the labor market from collapsing. In the data of BTC purchases, the user's emotions seem to be mobilized a little, and it can be clearly felt that the purchasing power is rising. Even the purchase of ETFs reported in stages has increased significantly. A large number of investors have begun to sell cautiously, and even short-term profiteers have begun to expect higher prices.
Investors who held positions earlier are still indifferent. The chip concentration area between US$62,500 and US$64,000 is still increasing, and now has exceeded 1.324 million chips, while the support between US$64,000 and US$69,000 remains in very good condition. The current price changes still depend on whether short-term holders are willing to release their chips.
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