Investment cannot be copied

At the end of the article on September 27, there was a reader's comment: "It's rare to see TRON so confident about the outlook for a market. In a few months, if the A-shares pull back to below 3,000 points, I'll buy a little of the SSE 300 ETF and follow in TRON's footsteps." This comment greatly concerns me. First, let me state my conclusion: I am very grateful for this reader's trust. However, I strongly advise this reader and those with similar attitudes not to buy A-shares or the SSE 300 ETF. Regardless of how the current A-share market rally or decline, do not enter the market. However, you can carefully observe the upcoming market trends and compare them to your previous thoughts, to see what you can learn and absorb from the process. In my article on the 26th, I wrote about the attitudes of five types of participants towards the A-share market: The first four types are as follows: The first type is those who have completely given up on the A-share market, no matter how good or bad it is, and don't care at all. The second type is those who, due to this sudden and significant change, have instantly rekindled hope in the A-share market and are now paying attention to it, ready to enter the market at any time. The third type is those who think there will be a decent rally in the market in the next few days, so they are rushing in to speculate. The fourth type is those who think this is just a temporary fix and they should take the profits and leave. The fifth type is the one I specifically wrote about, which is "those who genuinely believe there will be this market rally." Obviously, this reader is not in the fifth category, but rather the second. More specifically, it is because "it's rare to see TRON so confident about the outlook for a market," and (I estimate) also because of the recent strong market performance, that this reader has rekindled hope in the A-share market. If investors in this category participate in the current market rally, even if it turns into a bull market, the outcome I mentioned in the article is: "They will most likely still lose money." Why am I so certain about this? Because this participation is not based on a genuine belief that there will be a market rally, so they most likely do not have a logical framework and approach to deal with the upcoming market trends. This type of participation is clearly not the result of independent thinking, but rather copying others' homework. And in investing, copying others' homework is absolutely forbidden. "What is honey to others may be poison to me" speaks to this principle. We all know that Mr. Buffett made a fortune by investing in PetroChina, right? But what about those Chinese investors who simply followed him and copied his homework at the time? What was their ultimate outcome? We all know that Mr. Buffett has been holding Coca-Cola and Wells Fargo for the long term and made a lot of money, right? But how many people have copied his homework and invested in these two stocks for the long term and also made money? Why can't you copy homework? Because those who copy homework fundamentally do not have a deep understanding of the underlying asset, do not know where the value is, and even more so do not know where the risks are. As a result, they often cannot buy at the right price points and cannot sell at the right price points either. Some may say: What if we copy not only the buy points but also the sell points? Well, that may work in theory, but when the market actually reaches the buy or sell points, these investors will almost 100% fail to stick to the rules. When the price drops to the buy point, they will think: "It will definitely keep falling, I shouldn't buy yet..." and then perfectly miss the buy point. When the price rises to the sell point, they will think: "It will definitely keep rising, I shouldn't sell yet..." and then perfectly miss the sell point. And then they enter a vicious cycle of losses. For an investment, if you do not genuinely believe in it from the bottom of your heart, but only recognize it because someone you trust says it's good, then that investment, no matter how good it is, is only someone else's honey, and has nothing to do with you. This year, among the well-known investors in China, I have focused on three people: LIN Yuan, DAN Bin, and DUAN Yongping. I've watched a lot of videos of LIN Yuan and DUAN Yongping, but unfortunately I couldn't find their published investment books, so I regret not being able to learn from them in writing. As for DAN Bin, I was fortunate enough to read his book "The Rose of Time." Whether watching videos or reading texts, I have gained a lot of insights from the experiences of these three seniors. All three of them hold a very well-known stock in the A-share market and have made substantial profits from it: Kweichow Moutai. Especially DAN Bin, in his book "The Rose of Time," very meticulously explained his reasons and logic for buying Moutai. This is the most detailed and profound description of the investment logic for Moutai that I have seen so far. What I gained from these three seniors is not how the Moutai stock is, whether it's worth buying, or whether the current price is suitable for entry. Rather, it is how they were able to find such a stock in the big cesspool of the A-share market, how they evaluated the value of Moutai, and where their courage to hold an A-share stock for the long term came from. However, even after learning from their experiences, I still have no interest in the Moutai stock. Even when the stock price plummeted recently, I didn't even think about buying Moutai. It's not that Moutai is not good, but I feel I still don't understand it well enough. So, you can't copy homework on the investment path. What we need to learn is not what others have bought or sold, but why they bought and why they sold.