Original｜Odaily Odaily
Author: jk
Against the backdrop of the current cryptocurrency market recovery, the overall market trend shows strong signs of recovery. The sharp increase in the issuance of stablecoins, the significant improvement in market liquidity, and the Bitcoin price breaking through $65,000 have made many institutions optimistic about the future trend. Currently, the number of bullish institutions far exceeds the bearish ones , and this trend reflects the market participants' optimistic attitude towards crypto assets. This article summarizes the views of institutions on the market recovery since July 25 (the past 2 months).
Bullish: The mainstream view of institutions mainly comes from macro signals
Arthur Hayes: Global monetary easing trend will drive crypto market up
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, analyzed the Fed's interest rate cut trend and its impact on the economy. He believes that the Fed usually continues to cut interest rates when facing high volatility until the interest rate is close to 0%. The interest rate cut will promote bank credit growth, and the government will continue to borrow to gain public support. The European Central Bank will also respond to the economic downturn by lowering interest rates, and governments will push banks to provide more loans to local businesses to create jobs and rebuild infrastructure.
As the Fed cuts rates, the dollar is likely to weaken, which will allow China to increase credit while stabilizing the yuan. The People's Bank of China has begun cutting interest rates, signaling an easing of monetary policy. Other major economies are also lowering interest rates, easing pressure on the Bank of Japan to raise rates. Global economies respond to volatility by lowering currency prices and increasing money supply, and Hayes advises investors holding cryptocurrencies to stay calm and look forward to the rise in the value of their fiat currencies.
10x Research: Firmly bullish, Bitcoin is expected to reach $70,000 in the next two weeks and hit a new high at the end of October
10X Research pointed out in its latest report that the issuance of stablecoins has increased dramatically, and it is expected to increase liquidity by nearly $10 billion in the next few weeks, which is far more than the liquidity of Bitcoin ETFs. Recently, the inflow of Circle's stablecoin USDC has reached 40%, showing an increase in the allocation of large market participants, which may be related to the recovery of DeFi activities. So far this year, the total inflow of stablecoins has reached $35 billion, bringing the total value of stablecoins in circulation to $160 billion.
The report also mentioned that after the July FOMC meeting, U.S. bond yields fell sharply, with the 10-year Treasury yield falling below 4.0%, triggering a recovery in DeFi activity. Aave's lending platform monthly fees soared to US$43 million in August. Although activity slowed in September, activity and fees may rebound after the Fed's interest rate cut.
As Bitcoin breaks through $65,000, 10X Research expects it to quickly rise to $70,000 and possibly hit a new all-time high in the short term. Founder Markus Thielen said that the surge in stablecoin minting has injected liquidity into the market, and the market is highly likely to rise strongly in the fourth quarter, suggesting that the cryptocurrency space may be about to usher in more FOMO.
CryptoQuant: Funding rates indicate growing bullish sentiment among futures traders
Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, said the 30-day moving average of the funding rate has turned positive, indicating that futures traders are becoming more bullish. Moreno pointed out that this upward trend came after a long period of decline, indicating that market participants may be turning more optimistic. Coinglass data shows that Ethereum's open interest-weighted funding rate has been trending positive since the Federal Reserve cut interest rates on September 18, and is currently 0.0089%.
Meanwhile, increased demand in the U.S. market pushed Bitcoin up to $65,000, with the premium for Bitcoin on the Coinbase platform reaching its highest level in two weeks.
MN Trading: Although I lost 50%+, I am still optimistic about Altcoin. The trend of ETF capital inflows will continue, and Asia may provide momentum for the bull market
Michaël van de Poppe, founder of MN Trading, said: “Ethereum and Bitcoin ETFs have seen huge inflows. I think this trend will continue, and both blue chips are the best bets against a potential failure of the dollar. At the same time, China drives the market forward. Perhaps Asia will provide the impetus for the bull market.”
At the same time, he also said: "People have been laughing at my moves in the Altcoin portfolio. Yes, I have fallen by more than 50%. However, if my basic theory is correct, I can accept a drop of more than 50%. If this happens within 12-18 months, my portfolio will have at least a 10-fold return. The last round, that is, the third cycle, has a larger AUM before making more and safer bets, which will naturally produce a lower return on investment. Better times are yet to come."
Matrixport: Bitcoin price may see a sharp rebound in early October
Matrixport released a report saying that Bitcoin is likely to rebound at the end of the year, bringing surprises to many market participants. Although Bitcoin has been in a consolidation state since reaching an all-time high in March 2024, the return rate has also reached +49% since the beginning of the year, which is comparable to the +47% return rate predicted based on historical data. Based on Bitcoin's performance over the past decade, a sharp price rebound may occur in early October, which is an exciting period for participants in the crypto asset field. At the same time, the small rebound in Ethereum miner fees suggests that the summer consolidation phase may be over. To judge the sustainability of the rebound momentum, a deeper analysis of Ethereum's revenue and miner fee trends is needed to understand the changes in market activity.
The chart published by Matrixport shows that Ethereum's gas fees rose after the recent Federal Reserve interest rate meeting, indicating a significant increase in network activity, which may mean that the cryptocurrency market is undergoing important changes. Despite the negative news, ETH prices have rebounded. Currently, the crypto market may be experiencing a round of high-beta, high-volatility rally, and existing trends show that this momentum is expected to continue into the fourth quarter.
Another chart shows that although Bitcoin is naturally volatile, its funding rate has returned to near zero, indicating that even in the case of the recent Bitcoin rebound, long positions in the futures trading market are not heavy. This provides an opportunity for traders to increase long positions, which may further push up prices. However, the low funding rate also suggests that the recent rise may be driven by spot buying, which tends to be more strategic and long-term rather than speculative futures trading. Overall, this is a positive sign that the market is not over-leveraged and there is still potential for future gains.
QCP Capital: The easing cycle of central banks will drive up crypto prices
QCP Capital wrote that BTC is fluctuating between $62,000 and $64,000 in the absence of US macro catalysts. Key macro events to watch today include US GDP data and a speech by Fed Chairman Powell. The market will be watching Powell's speech closely to see if there is any change in sentiment after last Thursday's FOMC press conference, where further easing may be hinted at. Last night, US presidential candidate Kamala Harris reiterated her support for cryptocurrencies, pledging for the second time this week to make the United States a leading force in "artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and blockchain." She also reiterated the inclusion of "digital assets" in her economic plan. With both US presidential candidates pledging to support cryptocurrencies, it will be a win for the US crypto ecosystem no matter which candidate is elected. As central banks around the world begin an easing cycle, the influx of liquidity is expected to drive crypto prices higher.
Meanwhile, in comparison, Bitcoin rose more than 7% in September, one of the strongest September performances in history; the S&P 500 rose 5.1% in the third quarter, the best performance since 1997. Global risk appetite is strong, and the CSI 300 Index rose 9% in a single day after China launched a large-scale real estate support plan. QCP expects that Bitcoin is expected to benefit from a possible correction in the stock market against the backdrop of global monetary easing. QCP maintains a medium-term bullish view on Bitcoin, believing that a break above $70,000 could trigger further upward momentum.
Bearish: Macro data and social media data may not mean a bull market
BitMEX Chief Growth Officer: The market is in a rebound period, but the RRR indicator shows that it may be bearish for cryptocurrencies
BitMEX Chief Growth Officer Raphael Polansky said on X that while many people are shill for the market rebound, one of BitMEX's favorite macro indicators, RRP, shows signs of continued tightening of liquidity this month. RRP has historically been inversely correlated with Bitcoin's performance. High RRP is generally bearish for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies.
Santiment: According to social media data, BTC won’t hit new highs anytime soon
Santiment said that if investors are waiting to see Bitcoin hit a new all-time high, they may need to wait until people lower their expectations. Currently, the ratio of bearish posts to bullish posts on social media is 1:1.8. Historically, the market has always gone against people's expectations.
Neutral: BTC is just a support level
CryptoQuant: BTC short-term holders bought at an average price of $63,000, which is expected to be the current support level
CryptoQuant.com recently released a market outlook analysis, indicating that BTC has risen by more than 23% in the past three weeks, from $52,500 to more than $65,000. This strong momentum is partly due to increased demand for Bitcoin spot ETFs. As a result, short-term holders are back in profit. Short-term holders are investors who have transferred Bitcoin in the past 155 days, with an average purchase price of $63,000, which is currently expected to play a supporting role. In addition, the futures market shows signs of overheating, with open interest in contracts of approximately $19.1 billion. Since March 2024, the indicator has exceeded $18 billion six times, and each time it has ushered in a price drop, and this is the seventh time. At the same time, spot Bitcoin ETF holdings are converted into long-term holder supply. While this looks bullish, this shift usually occurs in the late stages of a bull market.
Bitfinex: BTC is expected to fluctuate in a range in the short term
Bitfinex analysts said that even if spot buyer demand weakens, ETF fund inflows can support BTC prices. Continued ETF inflows may boost BTC prices. However, as Bitcoin spot market purchases slow down, the incremental spot cumulative trading volume will flatten when the price reaches $63,500. BTC is expected to fluctuate in a range in the short term.
Well-known trader Eugene: Reduce some positions against the trend and strictly implement the trading plan
Well-known trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio posted on social media that he reduced some positions and sold some assets, and tried his best to stick to the plan despite the huge FOMO everywhere. As previously reported, he posted on the X platform on September 25 to express his views on the bull market, saying: "I will not blindly desire more profits as prices rise. For me, the $65,000 to $68,000 area is a reasonable profit-taking area for early Bitcoin buyers. Many wait-and-see funds will make their last entry at $65,000, which may also mean that this is the last upward momentum. I don't think the $70,000 ceiling will be broken before the US election, so I won't choose to add positions here. If it hits $68, 000, I would rather choose to liquidate the decline to the $60,000 area and then re-enter the market."
