The bull market continues, some people are getting rich, and some are going bankrupt

On the first day after National Day, the A-share market did not unexpectedly experience a surge after opening, with nearly a thousand stocks hitting the daily limit up, and then I saw some of my friends in the group also continue to discuss the A-share market, with some sighing that the stocks were directly locked up at the opening, and they couldn't buy in at all. Today (October 8th) seems to be a memorable day for the A-share market, with some people starting to get rich from today, and others starting to go bankrupt. The media/self-media seem to be promoting and discussing the A-share market everywhere, so we won't share too much on this topic. Let's go back to our own focused areas and continue to discuss the topic of the crypto market. First, let's briefly talk about the market situation: Currently, Bitcoin is still moving along the channel, although it dropped to as low as $59,860 in last week's decline, it still closed above the short-term support level and is now continuing to maintain a position above the middle line of the channel. As shown in the figure below. Since entering the downward channel in March this year, Bitcoin has now reached a relatively critical position. Combining the trend and macroeconomic news, we remain optimistic about the market. As for whether it will continue to fluctuate or be able to directly break out of the downward channel and enter an upward trend, we don't know yet. Anyway, we haven't moved our Bitcoin, and we will continue to hold it patiently and wait for the market's new direction. Next, let's take a look at some important data from the past few days: In terms of the US dollar index, the US dollar index has been relatively strong in recent days, which should mainly be due to the release of the September non-farm payroll data in the US last Friday (October 4th). According to the data, the US non-farm payroll employment increased by 254,000 in September, far exceeding the expected 150,000. At the same time, the August data was revised up from 142,000 to 159,000, and the July employment data was revised up by an even larger margin, from 144,000 to 159,000. Because the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.2%, at least at the data level, it proves that the US economy is still healthy. Buoyed by the expectation of a soft landing, it directly drove the US dollar index to rise for several consecutive days. As shown in the figure below. The release of the non-farm payroll data also seems to have withdrawn the market's bet on a significant rate cut in November. A few days ago, many institutions/analysts predicted that the Fed would announce another 50 basis point rate cut at the November interest rate meeting, but currently, according to the data from the forecast website, the view has changed significantly, with most believing that the Fed may cut rates by 25 basis points next month, and some even betting that there will be no rate cut in November. As shown in the figure below. In addition, this week we also need to pay attention to the release of the Fed's October 10th meeting minutes, the release of the US September inflation data, and the Q3 financial reports of financial giants (such as BlackRock, JPMorgan Chase, etc.) on October 11th. Of course, we also need to pay attention to the development of the situation in the Middle East, all of which may have a certain impact on the trend of the crypto market. In addition to the important economic data mentioned above, there is also the FTX compensation plan mentioned in the previous article. According to the news on October 7th, the bankruptcy court judge in Delaware has officially approved FTX's bankruptcy reorganization plan, marking the beginning of the compensation process for the exchange's collapse two years later. 98% of creditors will receive at least 118% of the compensation amount, although some creditors are dissatisfied with not being able to be compensated at the original value of the cryptocurrencies, but the court still decided to settle in cash. The judge also reiterated that the value of FTX's native token FTT is zero (but this does not prevent FTT from becoming a meme coin and continue to be speculated on by some people). Although the crypto market is still in a bull market, the current market is rather boring, and I've heard that many crypto friends have recently rushed to buy A-shares. Whether it's the stock market or the crypto market, no one doesn't like a bull market, because a bull market always gives people a sense of being able to make money, and make a lot of money. The more it is in a bull market, the more people tend to become restless, always afraid of missing out on various opportunities, and then rushing to wherever they hear is hot. In fact, as long as the cyclical nature of the financial market still exists, opportunities will always exist. The important thing is not to try to grab all of them, but to just be able to grab a few that you can understand. Before thinking about how to make money, we should first adjust our own mindset. How should we think about this problem? 1. Set clear goals Investment is a process, and setting goals is the simplest first step. Trading is not gambling, and goal setting also needs to be clear and reasonable. If you set your goal as a hundred-fold or thousand-fold return from the start, then you need to seriously think about where this hundred-fold or thousand-fold return comes from. If you can't figure out the trading logic behind it, then you are likely to be one of the stepping stones for others to achieve a hundred-fold or thousand-fold target. In addition to trading (spot/contract), many friends also choose DeFi for wealth management. When setting or choosing APY targets, you also need to make reasonable considerations, don't just go for the very high annual yields (such as over 100%) and invest in some small altcoins for staking, what you want is high APY returns, but perhaps what they want is your principal. 2. Conduct self-assessment In addition to setting goals, you also need to combine your own position and strategy to conduct necessary self-assessment, and maintain focus and a good mindset. A few days ago, a friend left me a message asking: Recently I found that the price trends of altcoins like SUI, ALEO, and ATT are quite good, can I buy some? Similar questions like this have been received before. I found that many new followers of my account like to ask some interesting questions, such as: seeing that a certain coin has risen, they ask if they can buy it; seeing that a certain coin has fallen, they ask if they should sell it... Some people who just entered this field always want to make a lot of money or get rich overnight, but as soon as they see something has risen, they want to chase it, and when they find something has fallen, they panic and sell. Then they go online looking for someone to give them the ultimate answer to solve the problem, if they operate their investments this way, then they will most likely end up losing all their money. Investing is a serious matter, and you need to combine your own risk preferences and capital size to conduct necessary screening, allocation, and optimization of your holding strategies, rather than directly taking someone else's decisions as your own. There is no one on the internet who will be responsible for your investment results (if there is, they are probably just trying to trick you out of your principal).

You must think clearly about your own boundaries and not blindly follow the latest hot news headlines. Others may be able to earn certain money, but that doesn't mean you can too; others may be able to do certain things, but that doesn't mean you can do them too. In addition to evaluating from your own perspective, it also includes evaluating the specific project itself, which means you need to at least be clear about what you are buying and how much loss you can accept, etc. Instead of simply listening to someone else say that something will rise and then buying it, or seeing that something has risen well and wanting to buy it. 3. Abide by trading discipline Trading discipline is the specific action to be taken based on a comprehensive assessment of personal goals, risk preferences, and position strategies. Actions can be set differently based on different cycles, such as long-term, medium-term or short-term. For example, in the previous article, we also shared that in this cycle, we have been investing in Bitcoin on a monthly basis since May 2022, for a total of 20 months of operation, from around $38,000 to around $17,000, and then from around $17,000 to around $40,000. During this process, we have had some doubts about the market, but the main reason we have been able to persist is that we have strictly followed our own trading discipline. For a relatively long-term trading process, it is often easy to give up halfway due to a lack of motivation, so setting a trading discipline for yourself is the key to overcoming obstacles. Adhering to trading discipline is also equally important for medium and short-term trading. As for the specific implementation of the discipline, there may be many, and this needs to be tailored to the individual. Here we will list a few that may be more common: - Avoid leverage - Don't add more when it rises, take profits according to the target - Don't add more when it falls, take losses according to the target - Don't switch positions frequently - Don't touch what you don't understand, always put capital preservation first - You can play Altcoins in small positions and accept the mindset that they may go to zero at any time - etc. 4. Cultivate a growth mindset Many people like to compare themselves with others, such as seeing a friend in the group make a few million dollars by heavily investing in Altcoins, and then they become very envious and want the friend to recommend another "wealth code" so that they can also become rich overnight. There are also many people who are always hoping for a free lunch, such as waiting for others to actively send them a "wealth code" and then directly buying it to achieve overnight wealth. In any market, the real big money makers will always be a small minority. Don't compare your hard-earned money with others' pocket money, for example, someone else buying $10,000 worth of on-chain meme may just be small change for them, and they don't care if it goes to zero, but if you borrow $10,000 to gamble like them, it will most likely end in disaster. Things are dialectical, if you are not psychologically prepared to lose money, it will be very difficult to get rich by relying on luck. Of course, I don't deny that there may be some "chosen ones" in this world, and there seem to be a few topic figures who are destined to get rich in each bull market cycle, if you think you are one of those chosen ones, then I won't stop you from doing anything. In short, in any field (including the crypto market), if you want to survive in the long run, you need to actively cultivate your own growth mindset, focus on your own daily progress. What we need to do is actually very simple, just stick to doing some small things that are meaningful to ourselves every day, as long as we persist, we can basically lead 90% of our competitors in the corresponding field. We can start with small goals, for example, I set myself a small goal of writing 2-3 articles per week a few years ago, and have persisted to the present day, accumulating over 2 million words. In this process, there will be a relatively obvious feeling, that is, every time you take a small step forward, it will strengthen your belief in your own growth. In fact, this principle also applies to investment, don't always think about being able to "All In" and get rich overnight, set your own goals, do self-assessment, abide by trading discipline, and cultivate a growth mindset, and you will gradually discover a different you. Mr. Yang Jiang once said: No matter what stage of life you reach, there are people looking up to you from below, and there are also people looking down on you from above. If you look up, you will feel inferior, and if you look down, you will feel satisfied. Only by looking straight ahead can you see your true self. That's all for this issue, you can check more articles on the Talking Outside homepage. The above content is just my personal perspective and analysis, and is only for learning and exchange, and does not constitute any investment advice.