Several important economic data were released today. Previously, Powell said that the CPI is expected to drop to 2.2, but this time the September annual CPI was 2.4, down from the previous 2.5, missing expectations, but overall it has decreased, so it pulled back and then fell. The core CPI increased from 3.2 to 3.3, which is the statistical data after excluding consumption and energy.
Because the price range of oil in September was 65-74, and in October it was 66-78, and October is not over yet, if my previous prediction that oil will reach 100 by the end of the year is correct, it will be difficult for the Fed to cut interest rates in November and December, as the CPI will rebound. The US has no precedent for opening an interest rate cut channel and then raising interest rates, but this time it has opened an interest rate cut channel while the economy is improving, and there is also a precedent for a 50 basis point interest rate cut, so the probability of a subsequent interest rate hike is also there, though very small.
Based on the current data, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in November is very small, 50 basis points is no longer possible, and 25 basis points has a certain probability. Personally, I think there may be a rate cut. But whether it's a 25 basis point cut or no cut, it's not good news for us, as unmet expectations are bearish, and the subsequent downward trend is relatively certain. There will definitely be ups and downs in the middle, and there will also be positive news for cryptocurrencies after the election.
Review and analysis of the market
BTC broke through the 60,000 mark in the early morning, hitting the intraday support level of 59,000, and then rebounded. ETH reached a low of 2,330, close to the intraday support level of 2,320, and then rebounded. The market has been fluctuating up and down, with BTC gradually testing the waters, and this kind of market also reveals that there are still many people at the bottom buying the dips and adding positions, which will only make the big players happier to unload their positions, in a downward trend, step by step, to trap the market, which is also giving the market hope, otherwise the market may experience a large-scale trampling, which is not good for the big players either, a wave of rebounds, a wave of profits maximized.
Analysis of today's market
BTC
The intraday support level of 59,000 has been reached, and the market has rebounded back above 60,000. This position has already experienced small-scale fluctuations back and forth and will not have a large direct amplitude. The intraday resistance level is the 60,600-61,200 area. It has already been tested once today, so we need to watch whether the intraday pullback will directly touch the 58,000 area. The intraday support level can be focused on the 57,000-58,000 area.
ETH
The low of 2,330 reached in the early morning was close to the support level, and the market has rebounded. This means it has reached this support level, so we can focus on the second support level around 2,280 on the intraday level. The resistance level has not changed, and we can continue to focus on the 2,420 area. But if this level is broken through on the intraday level, we need to pay attention to the resistance level in the 2,460-2,480 area. But the current trend is unlikely to see such an upward surge, so we should first look at the 2,280-2,320 area as the first line of support on the intraday level.
The recent decline in BTC has been relatively moderate, consistent with the historical bull market pattern
Although BTC prices may fluctuate, recent BTC market activity reflects a certain degree of resilience. The decline in this bull market cycle has been relatively small and continues to follow the patterns observed in the previous market uptrend. Although there has been a correction recently, the overall structure of the BTC market remains consistent with historical bull markets, reflecting both the elasticity of demand and the limited scale of the recent adjustments. The report emphasizes that although BTC has experienced adjustments, these adjustments are much milder compared to previous cycles.
BTC is fluctuating widely, and the altcoin market is likely to turn into a dog market again. This altcoin rebound is just a brief flicker, and the old saying still applies: cash out when you make a profit, don't get attached, don't be naive! The big players won't go easy on you just because you're a small player!
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