BTC, up about 5.5% on the 15th...Broke through $66,000
China's stimulus measures, China's stock market followed by BTC rising
US presidential election flow, rising market expectations driving
Overlapping futures market and expectations led to BTC rise
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# China-driven asset market boom
The sudden start of the BTC Uptober is attributed to the announcement of additional stimulus measures by the Chinese government and expectations for the US presidential election.
China's Ministry of Finance announced an expansion of fiscal spending on the 12th. Chinese Finance Minister Liu Kun said at a press conference on the 12th that "the central government has relatively large room to increase debt." Although the specific amount of government bond issuance was not announced, foreign media estimates the Chinese government's bond issuance to be around 2 trillion to 10 trillion yuan.
As the Chinese government officially announced its plan to inject liquidity as promised, the Shenzhen Composite Index and the Shanghai Composite Index surged 3.01% and 2.07% respectively, and this in turn lifted BTC.
# US election 'crypto-friendly' outcome
The upcoming US presidential election on November 5th has also driven the sharp rise in BTC.
Former President Trump, who has presented various crypto-friendly campaign promises along with his candidacy, has seen a significant rise in his approval rating. According to the betting site 'PredictIt', Trump's probability of winning is 54.8%, far exceeding Vice President Kamala Harris' 44.8%.
As the tight race between the two candidates tilted towards the 'crypto-friendly' candidate Trump, investors rushed to bet on the cryptocurrency market, including BTC.
Crypto media CoinDesk reported that "the US presidential election race is becoming another catalyst to drive up crypto prices" and "as the prediction market has shifted in recent days, the probability of former President Trump, who has taken a pro-crypto stance, winning has increased."
Vice President Harris also unveiled a crypto-friendly policy pledge on her official campaign website. Harris' campaign website stated that under the 'Opportunity Economy' policy, a federal cryptocurrency regulatory framework will be established to protect cryptocurrency investors and the cryptocurrency market.
With both leading presidential candidates expressing support for cryptocurrencies, there is an expectation in the market that the cryptocurrency market, including BTC, will see a significant rise regardless of the outcome of the US presidential election.
# Dramatic October market flow
The sharp rise in BTC is also analyzed as the dramatic flow of the cryptocurrency market in October being ultimately transformed into great expectations.
BTC had been declining since the beginning of October due to heightened war risks in the Middle East, the timing of China's stimulus measures being different from expectations, and the US consumer price index (CPI) for September falling short of expectations. In the first week of October, BTC fell about 7%, touching the $62,000 level, unfolding a different scenario than the expected 'Uptober'.
As October started disappointingly for investors, their interest in BTC waned. According to Google Trend data on the 13th, the search volume for the keyword 'Bitcoin' recorded the lowest level in a year, scoring 33 out of 100.
Many BTC futures investors were betting short, and BTC surged by leveraging investors' pessimistic expectations. According to data from on-chain analysis platform Glassnode, about $2.5 billion (approximately 33.9 trillion won) in open interest was liquidated during the intraday 2.5% surge in BTC on the 14th.
# The real 'Uptober'?
Based on on-chain analysis data, many experts have predicted that an 'intentional Uptober' has arrived.
The on-chain analysis platform Whale Alert announced through its official X account that 400 million USDT flowed into Binance on the 14th, indicating intentional buying pressure. Crypto media Crypto Briefing explained that "there was intentional USDT inflow in the past day, and this is a move to drive up the market."
BTC was trading at around $65,947 as of 9:30 am on the 15th.
Reporter Kwon Seung-won ksw@
