With only three weeks until the U.S. presidential election, Bitcoin is on track to match its previous all-time high price of nearly $73,800, British multinational bank Standard Chartered said, driven by several key factors.
In a note shared with Decrypt, Standard Chartered stated that the recent rise in Bitcoin's price is fueled by strong inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, renewed buying of topside BTC call options, and increasing Donald Trump election odds on prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi.
"Net inflows to Bitcoin ETFs have now crossed $19 billion USD, equivalent to 315,000 BTC, as institutional interest continues to pick up," the report states.
Over the past week, an additional 1,500 BTC has been added to the open interest of the $80,000 call option set to expire on December 27, reflecting heightened bullish sentiment among traders.
Analysts expect these inflows and derivatives positioning to support a steady climb in Bitcoin’s price, with the next resistance level of $73,800 potentially breached before the election. Bitcoin is currently trading around $67,000 as of this writing.
As Trump’s election odds rise, Bitcoin's correlation to these political developments is becoming more evident. Polymarket now shows Trump with a 56% chance of winning, and a 70% conditional probability of a Republican sweep if Trump is elected. "The crypto market bid is stronger with Trump’s odds improving," the analysts stated.
A Trump victory is viewed as favorable for the digital assets market, which could propel Bitcoin higher in the near term. Trump has painted himself as a supporter of cryptocurrency, despite past negative comments on the industry, while opponent Kamala Harris has only just started to share policy plans towards digital assets.
A separate report from Bernstein Research echoed similar sentiments regarding Bitcoin’s bullish outlook. The firm noted that Bitcoin has experienced a 14% rise over the past month, now holding firmly above the $65,000 mark. Inflows into Bitcoin ETFs have significantly contributed to this momentum.
"Bitcoin ETFs printed a large inflow number yesterday, crossing $550 million, the kind of buying we haven’t seen in weeks," Bernstein analysts stated, highlighting the accelerating institutional demand.
Bernstein also pointed to the growing legitimacy of the digital asset ecosystem, noting that global asset managers are laying the groundwork for broader participation from wealth advisors and private banks. "We believe this distribution groundwork will pay off in accelerated inflows, reflexive to Bitcoin’s price movements," the report said.
MicroStrategy (MSTR), often seen as a corporate proxy for Bitcoin's performance, has also seen its NAV multiple break higher in recent weeks, despite Bitcoin prices remaining relatively flat on a broader scale.
Michael Saylor’s firm has the largest corporate Bitcoin treasury reserve on the planet, holding 252,500 BTC—or $16.6 billion worth as of this writing. According to Standard Chartered, MicroStrategy’s stock price typically serves as a leading indicator of Bitcoin’s strength.
"The break higher in the MSTR multiple could be due to factors such as BNY Mellon’s exemption from SAB 121, allowing MSTR to lend its BTC holdings, thus earning yields on the 252,000 BTC it holds," the analysts noted.
MicroStrategy’s plans to become a "Bitcoin bank"—as Saylor recently stated—by creating Bitcoin capital market instruments are also starting to resonate with investors, further lifting its stock price and bolstering confidence in BTC as a treasury asset.
Standard Chartered believes the next 48 hours will be critical in solidifying the cryptocurrency's breakout above its seven-month downtrend. If successful, the next target is $70,000, with the potential for all-time highs as the U.S. election nears.
Bernstein's report also underscored that Bitcoin miners, while still underperforming in the broader market, could see significant upside as Bitcoin approaches new highs.
"For pure-play miners, a Bitcoin price above $74,000 will likely mark the turning point where mining becomes highly profitable," Bernstein noted.
Edited by Andrew Hayward
