Cryptocurrencies are playing a unique role in becoming a notable issue in the 2024 US presidential election.
Many figures in the industry have expressed support for former US President and Republican candidate Donald Trump, thanks to his crypto-friendly policy promises, which are seen as a potential catalyst for the industry's development.
With polls showing the race is still wide open, crypto traders like Satoshi Flipper believe a Trump victory is not yet priced into the Cryptocurrency market. He believes a Republican victory would bolster the rising markets of BTC and altcoins.
But as the election nears, prediction markets like Kalshi or Polymarket have shifted to favor Trump, increasing his chances of victory to around 60%.
This significant gap has led to concerns about potential manipulation, but these concerns have been strongly rebutted by prediction market supporters like Tarek Mansour, the founder of Kalshi.
Young Bitcoin millionaire Erik Finman is very optimistic about a Trump election victory, believing it will turn the US into a crypto-friendly environment, leading to significant investment flowing into the Cryptocurrency market. Finman argues, "His policies will trigger the crypto market, driving strong growth across the board."
"If Trump wins, I believe Bitcoin could reach $100,000 during his second term."
Crypto trader and anonymous market analyst Crypto Rand told TinTucBitcoin, "The biggest price-driving factor of a Trump administration is simply his non-hostile stance towards cryptocurrencies. This attitude alone is a game-changer and sets the foundation for the US to become a leader in the crypto space."
Not everyone is convinced, like American entrepreneur and Shark Tank star Mark Cuban, who has advocated for Kamala Harris' campaign with more crypto-friendly policies. He told TinTucBitcoin that if Trump wins, the crypto market is likely to "explode for a few weeks" before declining again. He also added that Trump's economic policies have high inflationary tendencies, which could hinder Bitcoin's price action.
Will Trump's Pro-Crypto Policies Boost Bitcoin and Altcoins?
Trump has promised to implement many pro-crypto policies, attracting the attention of voters solely focused on this issue.
One of the key commitments is that Trump has repeatedly stated he will "fire" US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chairman Gary Gensler "on day one" of his presidency.
Experts believe that while he may not be able to do this directly, he could demote Gensler to a regular commissioner and then nominate a new candidate more aligned with his policies. However, the US Senate will still have the final say.
Blockcircle CEO Basel Ismail believes a new crypto-friendly SEC director will enhance Bitcoin's adoption and pave the way for a recovery of altcoins.
Many pending altcoin ETF applications have been filed before the US election, with XRP (XRP) and SOL emerging as potential candidates.
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas told TinTucBitcoin that Trump could appoint "a new SEC commissioner who doesn't care" about the long-standing processes where futures contract data plays a crucial role in ETF approvals. He concluded:
"If Trump wins, I think we could see other coins like ETFs, in my opinion."
Trump's pro-crypto promises are numerous and ambitious, with a vision of turning the US into the "crypto capital of the world". Crypto Rand notes that while the commitment to creating a crypto advisory council may not have received much attention, he believes this is crucial.
Polymarket's betting pool on the 2024 US presidential election outcome as of October 18. Source: Polymarket
He believes the Senate, House, and SEC have repeatedly shown a lack of understanding of the Cryptocurrency industry and its drivers. A proper advisory board with industry experts will help advise and create more sensible regulations.
Finman said Trump's commitment to reducing regulatory barriers will unleash the crypto industry, attracting significant investment into crypto companies.
Galaxy's head of research Alex Thorn believes clarifying crypto regulations could benefit altcoins more than BTC.
He argues that Bitcoin's current market dominance is related to more favorable regulations compared to altcoins. If Trump implements his crypto policies, altcoins could explode and even surpass BTC.
Finman believes Trump's election will be a "rising tide that lifts all boats," but Crypto Rand thinks the gains will be concentrated in AI and DePIN, saying they "have a higher likelihood of leading the growth market."
Ismail said that the DeFi (DeFi) and memecoin markets will benefit from Trump's victory, as Trump has actively promoted his new DeFi project, World Liberty Financial (WLFI), which is expected to be integrated with Aave.
And Trump himself is also a mobile meme. Ismail pointed out that Trump "holds many memecoins in his personal wallets," many of which he received through Airdrop releases.
How will Trump's non-cryptocurrency policies affect cryptocurrency?
Some observers believe that Trump's broader economic policies could also benefit the cryptocurrency space. Finman believes that reducing capital gains taxes will drive investment incentives, boosting growth in the cryptocurrency industry.
But not all of his proposals support cryptocurrency, Cuban argues. He thinks Trump's inflationary economic policies will harm cryptocurrency, especially the unprecedented taxes he will impose in the US.
On October 15, Trump lectured that tariffs are the "most beautiful word in the dictionary" at the Chicago Economic Club. Trump declared he would impose at least a 10% tariff on all imports and possibly up to 60% on goods from China.
Cuban believes Trump's tariffs will increase inflation, ultimately causing interest rates to rise, which will harm cryptocurrency.
Will Trump continue his pro-cryptocurrency stance?
Trump may currently want to portray himself as a cryptocurrency supporter, but long-time market watchers will remember that he did not support Bitcoin or altcoins during his previous presidency.
At the time, he said that cryptocurrency "is based on thin air," and even called it a scam on Fox News.
Finman said that Trump "was born in the World War II era, so his initial lack of understanding of Bitcoin is understandable." He believes Trump's sudden change could be positive, showing his "impressionability" and "openness and willingness to adapt when presented with new information."
Crypto Rand acknowledges that Trump's acceptance of cryptocurrency may not be entirely genuine and sees it as an "opportunity" — Trump has seized a great opportunity to gather more support and a financial source for his campaign.
However, "Trump has proven many times that he is an outstanding businessman," Crypto Rand said, and "adapting to new trends, changing perspectives, and identifying industries that are about to change the world is part of the necessary skill set."
