Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author | Nanzi (@Assassin_Malvo)
Recently, the Meme trading platform Moonshot has risen to prominence, being "praised" by multiple posts on the X platform as the "mini Binance" on the chain, claiming that it has solved the "last mile" problem of Meme tokens and has a strong listing effect.
(Note: The author reviewed 9 Moonshot introduction articles and found that 6 of them included recommendation links, indicating a relatively obvious tendency to benefit from promotion.)
So, does Moonshot really have a significant listing effect? If so, is it short-term or long-term? Odaily will review the data in this article.
Basic Situation Description
Statistical Object: This article has counted 13 tokens that were listed on Moonshot in the past ten days, excluding other cross-chain tokens to Moonshot, such as NPC, STONKS, etc.
Statistical Time: Based on the listing time provided by the "Moonshot Listings" account, the token prices at 5 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours, 24 hours, and the current time (11:00 am Beijing time on October 22nd) after listing were counted.
Special Circumstances: Since the exact second of the listing announcement release cannot be obtained, the opening price of the 1-minute K-line is taken as the starting price, and the other prices, such as the 5-minute price after listing, are taken from the closing price of the 1-minute K-line.
Review of the Listing Effect
The statistical results of the prices at each time period are as follows:
It can be clearly seen that there is a significant "listing effect" in the 5 minutes after the listing announcement, with an average increase of 14.7%. As time goes on, the differentiation becomes more pronounced.
Furthermore, if GOAT is not included, the average increase from 5 minutes to 24 hours is actually increasing, but the cumulative increase since listing has plummeted.
Significant Short-term Listing Effect
The 5-minute increase of each token on Moonshot is shown in the figure below, arranged from left to right in the order of listing. It can be seen that, except for XD, all of them had positive increases after the announcement.
After reviewing the K-lines, the author found that there is a possibility of "announcement bots" automatically buying based on the Moonshot announcements, especially for some small-cap tokens, where the 1-minute increase is more significant than the 5-minute increase.
The 1-hour increase chart is shown below, and it can be seen that most tokens still maintained a positive increase 1 hour after the announcement, but differentiation began to appear, with several tokens starting to trend towards the 0 axis.
No Listing Effect in the Medium-term
The figure below shows the 4-hour increase, where half of the tokens have erased their gains and continued to decline, while Magnet, GOAT, and GNON, which were the leaders in their respective stages, continued to rise, which cannot be attributed to the fundamental reason for the increase being the Moonshot listing.
The 24-hour increase chart is shown below, with slop and Shoggoth included as they were listed less than 4 hours ago. It can be seen that the differentiation of token increases has become more pronounced, and it can be basically determined that whether a token is listed on Moonshot or not is not directly related to its medium-term increase.
Long-term Destined to Return to Zero
The figure below shows the cumulative increase of each token since the listing announcement, with GOAT not included in the chart due to its excessive increase. It can be seen that most tokens are heading towards zero, which is essentially because the tokens listed on Moonshot are all Meme tokens, and in the current environment of oversaturation of similar tokens, it is difficult to attract long-term attention and establish a core consensus, making a return to zero inevitable.
In summary, the Moonshot listing can often only serve as a short-term reference indicator, and whether the token can continue to rise in the short and medium-term is not related to it.
Furthermore, after reviewing, it was found that Moonshot's listings are usually carried out in the evenings and early mornings in Beijing time, and the listings are often focused on popular tokens with a market cap of around 10 million. Readers who focus on trading during this time period can pay attention to short-term opportunities.
