Odaily星球日报讯 荷兰国际表示，近期美联储利率预期出现鹰派重新定价，一些 FOMC 委员目前对年底前连续降息表示怀疑。荷兰国际集团分析师 Francesco Pesole 在一份报告中称，在下月竞争激烈的美国总统大选之前，美元可能会继续升值。Pesole 称，周三美元可能“在周中失去一些动能”，但总体而言，美元在大选前大部分时间都会上涨。此外，美联储降息预期降低也提振了美元。（金十）

荷兰国际：美联储鹰派重新定价，一些FOMC委员对年底前连续降息表示怀疑

Odaily Odaily News: ING said that there has been a hawkish repricing of Fed rate expectations recently, and some FOMC members are now skeptical about consecutive rate cuts before the end of the year. Francesco Pesole, an analyst at ING, said in a report that the dollar is likely to continue to appreciate before the hotly contested U.S. presidential election next month. Pesole said that the dollar may &quot;lose some momentum midweek&quot; on Wednesday, but overall, the dollar will rise most of the time before the election. In addition, the dollar has also been boosted by lower expectations of Fed rate cuts. (Jinshi)

ING: Fed hawks re-priced, some FOMC members doubt continuous rate cuts before the end of the year

Here is the English translation, with the content inside <> not translated:

The Mars Finance news reported that on October 22, <2024 FOMC voter and President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Daly> stated that the Federal Reserve is expected to continue cutting interest rates to prevent further weakening of the labor market.

Daly said at the <Wall Street Journal TechLive conference> held in Laguna Beach, California on Monday that "so far, I have not seen any information indicating that we will not continue to lower interest rates. For an economy that has already embarked on a 2% inflation rate path, this is a very tight interest rate, and I do not want to see the labor market deteriorate further."

She added that the goal is to achieve a "soft landing", that is, to reduce the inflation rate to 2% and maintain a healthy labor market, with wage levels keeping up with price increases. She said that as the inflation rate declines, the Federal Reserve needs to continue to lower the policy interest rate, otherwise it may make the policy overly tight and harm the labor market.

Fed's Daly: Expect the Fed to continue cutting interest rates to prevent further weakening of the labor market

Odaily Planet Daily Report: In the article "The Potential Impact of Trump's Policies on the US Economy", China International Capital Corporation (CICC) pointed out: "Under normal assumptions, we expect the Federal Reserve to continue cutting interest rates, but the pace of rate cuts will slow, and the terminal (neutral) interest rate will also be higher. Under extreme assumptions, the Federal Reserve's attitude will turn "hawkish" and it will restart rate hikes in 2025, as policymakers are unlikely to tolerate inflation returning to above 5%." The article further pointed out: "Considering that curbing inflation generally requires the nominal policy rate to be higher than inflation (i.e., the real policy rate to be positive), this means the Federal Reserve may need to raise rates by 75 to 100 basis points in 2025." (Odaily note: The United States has repeatedly made small rate hikes during the interest rate cut cycle from 1984 to 1986, mainly to address the risks of inflation and economic overheating.)

CICC: In extreme cases, the Fed may resume raising interest rates in 2025

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