As the U.S. presidential election approaches, Bitcoin options data shows bullish sentiment?

As the US presidential election approaches, some traders believe that coin (BTC) may break through its previous highs in the coming weeks, regardless of who is elected president. This view marks a shift in the market's attitude towards the election. For a long time, traders generally believed that if Republican candidate Donald Trump won, it would be a major boon for the cryptocurrency market. Trump's pro-cryptocurrency stance and his promise to make the US a global coin powerhouse have led many market participants to have high expectations for him. In contrast, Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, although she has not made similar commitments, has stated that she will introduce regulatory policies aimed at protecting certain groups. However, more and more market participants now believe that coin is likely to see a wave of appreciation, regardless of who wins the election. The reason for this is not just the policy positions of the two candidates, but the combined effect of various macroeconomic factors. Jeff Mei, Chief Operating Officer of the currency exchange BTSE, said in an interview with CoinDesk: "Both presidential candidates have taken a pro-cryptocurrency stance to attract voters, but it is difficult to determine whether any of their promises will actually be realized. However, whether it is Harris or Trump, the market seems optimistic about the upcoming government changes and policies. Regardless of the outcome, traders and investors believe that the change itself is a positive factor." Jeff Mei further pointed out that this optimistic sentiment is in line with the Federal Reserve's first rate cut in four years and the recent strong performance of the stock market. These factors have collectively driven the expectation that coin may break through its historical high and reach $80,000. Data from the options market seems to corroborate this view. According to Deribit's data, options traders have started to increase their bets on coin reaching new highs by the end of November. In particular, the $80,000 strike price for options expiring on November 29 is the most closely watched, while the $70,000 price has also attracted a lot of attention. The options expiring on December 27 are concentrated between $100,000 and $80,000. Furthermore, the options expiring on November 8 show that the market is most concerned about the price range of $75,000, indicating that the market is full of expectations for coin's performance during the election period. However, some market participants remain cautious about this. Augustine Fan, head of SOFA Insights, said that this price behavior is more a reflection of election hedging than bullish expectations. "I don't think people are buying $80,000 coin call options betting on a price increase. This is more like a cheap option on a broader market rebound, as the current implied volatility has not risen significantly." He further pointed out that coin volatility has been clearly biased towards post-election price increases since a few weeks ago, reflecting the market's view of it as a hedging tool. As the election day approaches, the market will closely monitor the trend of coin, and regardless of whether it is Harris or Trump who takes office, the market seems to expect the volatility and price of cryptocurrencies to rise further during this period.