据CME“美联储观察”，美联储到11月降25个基点的概率为96.3%，维持当前利率不变的概率为3.7%。到12月维持当前利率不变的概率为1%，累计降息25个基点的概率为28.5%，累计降息50个基点的概率为70.5%。

<p>据CME“美联储观察”，美联储到11月降25个基点的概率为96.3%，维持当前利率不变的概率为3.7%。到12月维持当前利率不变的概率为1%，累计降息25个基点的概率为28.5%，累计降息50个基点的概率为70.5%。</p>

美联储11月降息25BP的概率为96.3%

According to the CME "FED Watch", the probability of the FED cutting rates by 25 basis points in November is 96.3%, and the probability of maintaining the current rate is 3.7%. The probability of maintaining the current rate in December is 1%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis points rate cut is 28.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis points rate cut is 70.5%.

According to the CME "FED Watch", the probability of the FED cutting rates by 25 basis points in November is 96.3%, and the probability of maintaining the current interest rate is 3.7%. The probability of maintaining the current interest rate in December is 1%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 28.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 70.5%.

The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25BP in November is 96.3%.

The Financial Times team has recently updated its forecast on the outlook for US Federal Reserve interest rates, predicting that if Harris wins the election, the Federal Reserve may cut rates rapidly next year. The analysis suggests that after a 50-basis-point rate cut in September, the Federal Reserve may cut rates twice more by 25 basis points in 2024. The Federal Reserve will cut a total of 100 basis points in interest rates by the end of this year, lowering the federal funds rate to 4.25-4.5%. This is consistent with the Federal Reserve's economic forecast summary in September. If Harris wins the US presidential election, the Federal Reserve will cut rates 3 more times by 25 basis points in the first half of 2025, lowering the policy rate to 3.5-3.75%. (Jinshi)

Financial Times: If Harris wins the election, the Fed may quickly cut interest rates next year

Odaily Planet Daily Report: XTB analyst Brooks said that the US dollar is falling because the Fed seems more likely to cut rates in November, and the possibility of keeping rates unchanged is smaller. Data from LSEG Refinitiv shows that the US money market indicates that the possibility of the Fed not cutting rates in November is only 5%, lower than the previous 12%. At the same time, opinion polls show that the competition in the US presidential election in November is very fierce. She said that the lack of a clear election result will dampen sentiment, weigh on economic growth, and may lead to more rate cuts. (Gold Ten)

Analysts: Dollar falls as likelihood of Fed rate cut in November increases

Odaily Planet Daily Report: Analyst Andrew Cunningham of Kai Investment Macro said in a report that the European Central Bank may be more aggressive in cutting interest rates at its next policy meeting. A survey released on Thursday showed that private sector activity in the Eurozone continued to stagnate this month, indicating a severe economic slowdown at the start of the last quarter of the year. Cunningham said that inflation is cooling, and the ECB may conclude that its policy no longer needs to restrict economic activity. This means that the ECB will cut interest rates by 50 basis points at the December meeting, faster than the previous 25 basis point cut. (Gold Ten)