Odaily星球日报讯 投资者预期美联储下次会议维持利率不变的可能性降低，而定于下周公布的通胀和就业数据仍可能改变预期。据 CME 美联储观察，定价美联储维持利率不变的概率从本月早些时候的近 20%降至 2%。多数人押注美联储将降息 25 个基点。9 月 PCE 数据将于下周四公布，10 月就业数据将于下周五公布。物价数据显示，通胀持续但并不过热。就业数据则可能会受到飓风和罢工的一次性影响。（金十）

机构：在下周重要数据公布前，美联储按兵不动的可能性缩小

Odaily Odaily News: Investors expect the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged at its next meeting, while inflation and employment data due to be released next week may still change expectations. According to CME Fed Watch, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged has dropped to 2% from nearly 20% earlier this month. Most people are betting that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points. September PCE data will be released next Thursday, and October employment data will be released next Friday. Price data show that inflation continues but is not overheated. Employment data may be affected by one-off hurricanes and strikes. (Jinshi)

Institution: The possibility of the Fed staying on hold is reduced before the release of important data next week

Since the Federal Reserve's sharp rate cut on September 18, US long-term bond yields, inflation expectations, and the "term premium" (the compensation investors require to buy long-term government bonds instead of rolling over short-term bonds) have risen sharply. Given that former President <Trump> appears to be regaining momentum in the presidential race, while touting a series of plans that could disrupt the budget, this may reflect investors' concerns about fiscal profligacy and overly dovish monetary policy. Analysts at <Bespoke Investment Group> noted that in the 35 initial rate cuts by the Federal Reserve since 1994, the 10-year Treasury yield saw its third-largest increase ever, surpassed only by November 2001 and June 2008. Ultimately, investors will not be able to accurately assess the Federal Reserve's actions before the November 5 presidential election.

Analysis: Investors may not be able to properly assess Fed actions before U.S. presidential election

Odaily Planet Daily Report: Analyst Andrew Cunningham of Kai Investment Macro said in a report that the European Central Bank may be more aggressive in cutting interest rates at its next policy meeting. A survey released on Thursday showed that private sector activity in the Eurozone continued to stagnate this month, indicating a severe economic slowdown at the start of the last quarter of the year. Cunningham said that inflation is cooling, and the ECB may conclude that its policy no longer needs to restrict economic activity. This means that the ECB will cut interest rates by 50 basis points at the December meeting, faster than the previous 25 basis point cut. (Gold Ten)

Capital Economics: ECB expected to cut interest rates by 50 basis points at December meeting

According to the CME "FED Watch", the probability of the FED cutting rates by 25 basis points in November is 96.3%, and the probability of maintaining the current rate is 3.7%. The probability of maintaining the current rate in December is 1%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis points rate cut is 28.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis points rate cut is 70.5%.