Odaily星球日报讯 欧洲央行管委诺特表示，市场已提前预期降息路径，我们需要在 12 月份观察这是否过于乐观，如果出现上行通胀风险，政策收紧可能会更加缓慢，必须对有关利率的所有选项保持开放，需要采取逐次会议的方式作出决策，以保留利率选择的灵活性，当前欧元区经济形势虽然不太好，但并没有人们所说的那么糟糕，预计欧元区将实现软着陆，不预期会出现衰退。（金十）

欧洲央行管委诺特：市场已提前预期降息路径，需观察是否过于乐观

Odaily Odaily reported that ECB board member Knott said that the market has anticipated the path of interest rate cuts in advance, and we need to observe in December whether this is too optimistic. If there is an upward inflation risk, policy tightening may be slower. All options regarding interest rates must be kept open, and decisions need to be made meeting by meeting to retain the flexibility of interest rate selection. Although the current economic situation in the eurozone is not very good, it is not as bad as people say. The eurozone is expected to achieve a soft landing and a recession is not expected. (Jinshi)

ECB Governing Council Member Knot: Markets have anticipated the path of interest rate cuts, and we need to see whether it is too optimistic

Odaily Planet Daily Report: Investors' expectations of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged at the next meeting have decreased, and the inflation and employment data to be released next week may still change expectations. According to the CME Fed Watch, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged has dropped from nearly 20% earlier this month to 2%. Most people are betting that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points. The September PCE data will be released next Thursday, and the October employment data will be released next Friday. Price data shows that inflation is persistent but not overheated. The employment data may be affected by one-time factors such as hurricanes and strikes. (Jinshi)

The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged has dropped to 2% from nearly 20%

Since the Federal Reserve's sharp rate cut on September 18, US long-term bond yields, inflation expectations, and the "term premium" (the compensation investors require to buy long-term government bonds instead of rolling over short-term bonds) have risen sharply. Given that former President <Trump> appears to be regaining momentum in the presidential race, while touting a series of plans that could disrupt the budget, this may reflect investors' concerns about fiscal profligacy and overly dovish monetary policy. Analysts at <Bespoke Investment Group> noted that in the 35 initial rate cuts by the Federal Reserve since 1994, the 10-year Treasury yield saw its third-largest increase ever, surpassed only by November 2001 and June 2008. Ultimately, investors will not be able to accurately assess the Federal Reserve's actions before the November 5 presidential election.

Analysis: Investors may not be able to properly assess Fed actions before U.S. presidential election

Odaily Planet Daily Report: XTB analyst Brooks said that the US dollar is falling because the Fed seems more likely to cut rates in November, and the possibility of keeping rates unchanged is smaller. Data from LSEG Refinitiv shows that the US money market indicates that the possibility of the Fed not cutting rates in November is only 5%, lower than the previous 12%. At the same time, opinion polls show that the competition in the US presidential election in November is very fierce. She said that the lack of a clear election result will dampen sentiment, weigh on economic growth, and may lead to more rate cuts. (Gold Ten)