BTC: The 1-hour and 4-hour levels have returned to healthy levels, while the daily level is above the healthy level. Focus on the resistance zone above 68,000 during the day. Those with positions should hold, and the long-term outlook has not weakened. The support level during the day is 66,800–67,300, and the resistance level is 68,500–69,000.
BTC rose slightly yesterday, briefly breaking above 68,000, and the daily level remains healthy. The weekly level has formed a golden cross, so maintain your position and stay confident. The price is expected to continue rising. ETH followed BTC's rise yesterday, but the increase was not as significant. It briefly broke above 2,500. Wait patiently for BTC to stabilize, and then ETH will follow up with a rebound. The 4-hour momentum has started to weaken, and a divergence pattern has formed. Those who have positions should hold, and the target range of 2,800–3,000 remains unchanged.
The altcoins have not followed the mainstream in the upward trend. Be patient and continue to hold SATS, and consider closing the position around 50. For PEOPLE, hold it in the medium term and wait. Maintain your position in FTM.
How will the market perform in the future?
The market can only break out of the 65,000–70,000 USD range to establish a new trend, but I cannot predict it at the moment because the market is highly divided. Next week, there will be the US election on November 5, and the election results will be known around November 6. The market will definitely react to this, which may be an opportunity to end the consolidation.
Although I subjectively believe that Trump has a good chance of winning, which is positive for BTC in the long run, it is unknown how the market will react in the short term. Moreover, after Trump takes office, it remains to be seen how many measures he can take to rescue the economic recession and the ever-increasing government debt. It's a confusing situation, with high unemployment on one side and high inflation on the other.
Of course, these are too complex issues for us to understand deeply. Regardless of who takes office in the future and how the economy performs, we only need to focus on inflation, unemployment rate, and the pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and then act accordingly.
Data worth watching this week
This week is a macro-heavy week. The non-farm payroll data and unemployment rate data on Friday are worth watching, as they are the last important economic data before the election. Federal Reserve officials have almost no scheduled speeches this week.
The election is gradually approaching, and the market's attention to this election is lower than expected, but the election still has a high degree of uncertainty, and the IV of election cycle options remains relatively strong.
Thursday:
Bank of Japan announces interest rate decision and outlook report
US September core PCE price index (20:30)
US weekly initial jobless claims (20:30)
Friday:
US October unemployment rate (20:30)
US October non-farm payrolls (20:30)
US October ISM manufacturing PMI (22:00)
Apple reports earnings
The volatility can be expected to be very intense. For prudent players, it is suggested to focus on low-risk long positions and reduce position size. If there is a bullish breakout with volume, do not chase the price. For example, around 70,000, which is a high selling area, there will inevitably be a rapid plunge. The safest way is to add positions after the plunge.
Finally:
As the market has reached this point, as long as the capital above BTC has not fled, the market is still there. You just need to be patient and keep an eye on the projects you hold, as they are steadily progressing. There is no need to worry.
The longer the market grinds, the more retail investors will be shaken out.
When retail investors lose confidence and start to engage in short-term trading, the launch is not far away.
Wish all my friends: Be patient, stay true to your original intention, and succeed in the fourth bull market in the crypto space.
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