Author: 1912212.eth, Foresight News
BTC has not disappointed expectations, as the price broke through $70,000 again this morning around 6 am, briefly exceeding $71,000, with a 24-hour increase of over 4%, and is now hovering around $71,000. The almost pessimistic Twitter community's ETH, after dipping to $2,382, has also rebounded to above $2,600. Some Altcoins have also finally seen a rebound after a correction in the past few days. Dogecoin surged 17% due to Musk's shilling, and has now risen above $0.16.
In terms of contract data, according to Coinglass, $173 million was liquidated in the past 24 hours, including $69.78 million in long positions and $103 million in short positions. The market saw a double explosion of longs and shorts.
What factors are driving the upward market trend?
The Fed is about to cut rates again
The Federal Reserve will hold a policy meeting on November 6-7. Currently, the market is almost certain that the central bank will cut rates by 25 basis points at that time. According to the Fed Watch tool of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, traders currently see a 98.4% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in November, a 1.6% chance of no cut, and a 0% chance of a 50 basis point cut.
The Fed's continued rate cuts will inject more liquidity into the global market and be positive for risk assets. With ample liquidity, the crypto market sentiment has improved significantly.
Microsoft plans to buy Bitcoin
More and more large companies are considering Bitcoin as a strategic reserve.
In a Form A filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on Thursday, Microsoft listed issues to be discussed at the next shareholder meeting. One proposal suggests that the tech company should research Bitcoin to hedge against inflation and other macroeconomic impacts.
The filing shows that the board recommends shareholders vote against the proposal, stating that Microsoft has "carefully considered this issue." The statement said: "Past assessments have included Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as options for consideration, and Microsoft will continue to monitor trends and developments related to cryptocurrencies to inform future decisions. As the proposal itself points out, volatility is a consideration in evaluating cryptocurrency investments, which for corporate financial applications require stable and predictable investments to ensure liquidity and working capital. Microsoft has established robust and appropriate processes to manage and diversify its corporate finances to benefit shareholders in the long term, and this request for public evaluation is unwarranted."
Microsoft's largest shareholders include Vanguard, BlackRock, and State Street.
BTC spot ETF continues to see inflows
Bitcoin spot ETF data shows that inflows have been quite strong since the beginning of this month. Only 7 days saw net outflows, with the remaining 12 days seeing net inflows, and the inflow amounts were quite large. On October 14, the single-day net inflow exceeded $555.86 million.
Currently, the total net inflow to U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs has reached $21.93 billion, with the total on-chain holdings exceeding 1 million BTC. Furthermore, according to data disclosed by CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, institutional holdings account for about 20% of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs, with asset management firms holding about 193,000 BTC.
Bitcoin has formed a golden cross
A few days ago, market analyst Omkar Godbole stated that Bitcoin's 50-day simple moving average (SMA) has started to rise and may cross above the 200-day SMA in the next few days, confirming the so-called "golden cross".
This pattern indicates that short-term price momentum has exceeded long-term momentum, which could evolve into a bull market. Indicators based on moving averages are often criticized as lagging signals that may trap traders on the wrong side of the market. While this criticism is largely valid, golden crosses have indeed presaged major bull markets in the past.
Traders who held Bitcoin for a year after the first, second, and May 2020 golden crosses have seen triple-digit percentage gains. After the golden cross on October 30, 2023, Bitcoin's value doubled to a new all-time high of over $73,000.
The market trend confirms that the upward momentum is likely to continue.
The U.S. presidential election is approaching
Generally speaking, the crypto market will see decent gains before and after U.S. presidential elections. After the results of the last U.S. presidential election were announced, there was even a period of upward movement, although there was a decline in the two days before and after.
Furthermore, for the crypto market, whether Harris or Trump takes office, it is a long-term positive. Therefore, some funds choose to continue betting on the subsequent market performance.
