Odaily星球日报讯 根据 DeFi 衍生品平台 Derive 的数据，随着 11 月 5 日美国大选临近，比特币交易员正准备应对波动性加剧的问题，预计价格波动幅度将高达 20%。 Derive 创始人 Nick Forster 周一表示：“随着我们接近重大金融事件，最新的交易分析揭示了一些令人信服的市场动态见解。” 数据显示，押注集中在 80,000 美元的比特币执行价附近，短期看涨期权销售强劲，因为交易员使用期权溢价为可能的价格变动做准备。 Forster 表示：“卖出的看涨期权占主导地位，表明交易员正在战略性地收取溢价，而对 80,000 美元目标的关注则凸显了比特币的潜在转折点。” 他解释说，在过去 24 小时内看涨期权占比超过 47%，交易员希望利用选举相关波动带来的“溢价”。而不同到期日的波动模式表明，交易员正在为下周前的波动做准备，但仍不确定价格会朝哪个方向发展。（Decrypt）

Odaily星球日报讯 根据 DeFi 衍生品平台 Derive 的数据，随着 11 月 5 日美国大选临近，比特币交易员正准备应对波动性加剧的问题，预计价格波动幅度将高达 20%。Derive 创始人 Nick Forster 周一表示：“随着我们接近重大金融事件，最新的交易分析揭示了一些令人信服的市场动态见解。”数据显示，押注集中在 80,000 美元的比特币执行价附近，短期看涨期权销售强劲，因为交易员使用期权溢价为可能的价格变动做准备。Forster 表示：“卖出的看涨期权占主导地位，表明交易员正在战略性地收取溢价，而对 80,000 美元目标的关注则凸显了比特币的潜在转折点。”他解释说，在过去 24 小时内看涨期权占比超过 47%，交易员希望利用选举相关波动带来的“溢价”。而不同到期日的波动模式表明，交易员正在为下周前的波动做准备，但仍不确定价格会朝哪个方向发展。（Decrypt）

分析：美国大选将加剧比特币波动，期权交易员集中押注8万美元目标

According to data from the DeFi derivatives platform Derive, as the November 5 US election approaches, Bitcoin traders are preparing to deal with increased volatility, with price fluctuations expected to reach as high as 20%. Derive founder Nick Forster said on Monday: "As we approach a major financial event, the latest trading analysis has revealed some compelling market dynamics insights." The data shows that bets are concentrated around the $80,000 Bitcoin strike price, with strong call option selling, as traders use option premiums to prepare for potential price changes. Forster said: "Selling call options is dominant, indicating that traders are strategically collecting premiums, while the focus on the $80,000 target highlights a potential turning point for Bitcoin." He explained that in the past 24 hours, call options accounted for more than 47%, as traders hope to capitalize on the "premium" brought by election-related volatility. The different maturity volatility patterns indicate that traders are preparing for volatility before next week, but are still uncertain about the direction of the price.

According to data from the DeFi derivatives platform <Derive>, as the November 5th US election approaches, Bitcoin traders are preparing to deal with increased volatility, with price fluctuations expected to reach as high as 20%. Derive founder Nick Forster said on Monday: "As we approach a major financial event, the latest trading analysis has revealed some compelling market dynamics insights." The data shows that bets are concentrated around the $80,000 Bitcoin strike price, with strong demand for short-term call options, as traders use option premiums to prepare for potential price changes. Forster said: "Selling call options is dominant, indicating that traders are strategically collecting premiums, while the focus on the $80,000 target highlights a potential turning point for Bitcoin." He explained that in the past 24 hours, call options accounted for more than 47%, as traders hope to capitalize on the "premium" brought by election-related volatility. The varying maturity patterns of volatility also suggest that traders are preparing for volatility in the coming week, but are still uncertain about the direction of the price.

Analysis: US election will increase Bitcoin volatility, options traders focus on $80,000 target

Odaily Planet Daily Report: Bitfinex's research report shows that under the multiple influences of geopolitical uncertainties, macroeconomic factors, and the increasingly intensified "Trump trade" narrative, BTC volatility has increased, with a sharp 6.2% weekly correction last week, followed by a rebound. This correction highlights the growing impact of the upcoming US presidential election on short-term prices, and the correlation between Trump's election chances and the trajectory of Bitcoin's rise has strengthened. Market expectations for the election have driven a surge in options trading activity, with options expiring around key dates before and after the election having higher premiums, and implied volatility is expected to reach a peak of 100-day volatility shortly after the US election on November 8, indicating that the market is preparing for potential turmoil, and volatility is expected to be higher than normal in the short term, regardless of the election outcome.

Bitfinex Alpha: Correlation between Trump's chances of winning and Bitcoin's upward trajectory strengthens

Bitcoin returned to the 70,000 mark last night, and analysts estimate that as the November 5 US election approaches, the price of Bitcoin may rise; however, there may be selling pressure afterwards.

<Bitcoin's "Trump trade" resurfaces, Bitcoin returns to the 70,000 mark>

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- Bitcoin will soar before the election
- Potential selling pressure for Bitcoin

Bitcoin will soar before the election
According to a report by The Block, multiple analysts believe that the price of Bitcoin may soar before the November 5 US election, but analysts warn...

Bitcoin set to surge ahead of U.S. election, but selloff likely afterward

Odaily Planet Daily Report: In a recent report, Morgan Stanley analysts Monica Guerra and Daniel Kohen analyzed the potential impact of the 2024 US presidential election on the market, noting that economic signals are mixed and investor uncertainty is increasing. They explained that fluctuating consumer sentiment and persistently high prices are affecting voters' views, and traditional market indicators cannot provide clear predictions of the election outcome. Despite these factors, Guerra and Kohen believe that "while political outcomes and corresponding policy changes may impact corporate profitability, business and economic cycles may be more relevant to market performance." They advise investors to focus on long-term strategies rather than reacting to election-driven market changes. The analysts warned that a delayed election result could lead to increased volatility, stating that "a delayed election result will bring a period of uncertainty and speculation, which has historically led to increased short-term market volatility." Due to the tight poll results in key swing states and the uncertain timing of mail-in ballot counting, the final result may take several days or even weeks to be revealed, potentially causing significant market disruption. Looking ahead, Guerra and Kohen detailed that "as the campaign accelerates, proposals intensify, and the competition for swing state voters heightens, we expect the final sprint to election day to be contentious. An unexpected political event or revelation, the so-called 'October surprise', could have a modest impact on the election, and the combination of mail-in voting, staggered vote counting, and the intensity of the competition could leave the election result in limbo for some time, exacerbating market volatility." (<Bit>coin.com)