2024 Presidential Election Map Here's my prediction, what is yours? KH gets 308 EV Economy too strong. Trump campaign poorly run. ROE on the ballot in key swing states. Early vote gender gap. KH with more enthusiasm, fundraising, ground game. Its OK if we disagree 👊 twitter.com/BigCheds/status/13...

You'll get there one day brother

In fairness I was pretty close on 2020. Show me where you predicted Biden would beat Trump in 2020 and Ill say you are right

Prediction 2 Dem Presidency Dem House Rep Senate Was first on the record for this back in February x.com/BigCheds/status/17549211...

Trump called you a "bastard" Thats pretty cool. Im curious, show me?

OR. OR maybe I literally think she will get 308 and I want to collect clout in a week or so? Akkhams razor dude

Wait. You think Trump can win popular vote? 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤝

FYI ABC last poll has Harris up 4 points nationally so I am not sure what you are talking about mate

Which one did you mean?

FYI border crossings are lower now than when Trump left office. Look it up, knowledge is power

Nice to see that 9/10 who disagree with me are respectful. The other 1/10 are so threatened by a view that breaks their fantasy that they lash out. Thats OK too. And in a week we will know who is right, and who is wrong. 🤝🤝👊

Those who said KH has no enthusiasm have to explain this x.com/SegravesNBC4/status/1851...

I’m sure you saw the pictures from trumps Half filled arena yesterday

x.com/timodc/status/1851058776... twitter.com/timodc/status/1851...

You have to keep in mind that for me rule of law is the number one facto, and all other policies are number two that’s why I would vote for anyone other than Trump Agree or not you at least can understand where I’m coming from

Saying Trump has run a "flawless campaign" is something Stephen Miller would say 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣 Even people who like him have admitted this has been a sloppy campaign MSG rally? Self-own october surprise? Yet flawless? Come on man! be real lol

Harris is smart, tough and experienced

And funn you say "unlikable" since the US electorate likes her more than Trump. She has a 10-15 point favorability advantage over him

You can't say "trump won the debate" and expect me or anyone else to take you seriously brother. Even his die harder supporters admit it was an off night for him 🤣🤣🤣

Prediction 3 We will see a lot of "split ticket" voting. Harris for president and republicans down ballot to keep her in check. We will be hearing about "Harris Republicans" for decades, as we heard about "Raegan Democrats"

For example, people claimed he called Meghan Markle nasty. He did not, he called her COMMENTS nasty. I have no problem defending him when he is right, even though that is incredibly infrequent these days As a patriot its hard to support him but I try

I just looked it up and that is false. Why are you trying sell me on false information? wtf dude

Many such cases x.com/SCCurlyGirly/status/1851...

He’s also severely underwater in favorability compared to Kamala Harris and has been out fund raised by her by a factor of three to one and he has basically no ground game and a poorly run campaign

He knows he’s going to lose that’s why he’s complaining about imaginary fraud in Pennsylvania

Judging by comments a lot of people are going to be SHOCKED

If you are looking at early voting data, and high quality polls over the last few days, you’d be actually shocked if Trump won

My guess is half of them live overseas and the other half just started paying attention to politics with Trump in 2016

Perhaps you friend are the one who needs to put the bong aside

Also has said he will suspend the constitution on day one to be a dictator for a day, has said he wants to go after broadcasting license of news agencies that say mean things about him. From my view he is anti constitution, anti free speech, anti rule of law. You see that I hope

Rule of law country. We know from 2020 our elections are safe and secure, no one is going to riot and if they do, they should go to jail

Am I American? My family has been here for more than 400 years and literally helped to found this country and that’s why I take these issues more seriously than most people

I’ll never not find it funny that these political neophytes want to call me a liberal

Good news friends: After the election I will return to my no-politics mode on twitter

And I’m popular because I teach people that method for free and I’m incredibly honest and consistent

I’m definitely not humble

I’m not interested in excuses why people can claim ignorance I’m saying if this is really important to them it’s on them to learn the truth and not blame the media or claim ignorance. We literally did the investigations as a country and it’s time to respect our country

In 2016 we would have NEVER seen this

GA early voting is ominous for Trump

+12 in GA it looks like she is going to win GA in a blowout x.com/ThirdWayKessler/status/1...

Many such cases twitter.com/davidmastio/status...

Note the early vote gender gap in NC twitter.com/thirdwaykessler/st...

Also re Nevada. GOP is cannabolizing day-of vote x.com/SeanTrende/status/185130...

🤝🤝🤝x.com/SwannMarcus89/status/185...

If by cheating you mean run with better ideas and candidates and encourage people to vote, then yes. Otherwise you just sound strange

Popular vote prediction 51 Harris 47 Trump 2 Other

Many such cases x.com/costellojoseph_/status/1...

You support a guy who wears diapers, makeup and needs a riser to stand while he speaks. Lets be honest here

I also posit Harris will win 8-10% of republican vote

My conclusion from all the people telling me to “bet on it if you feel that way” is that they are nervous at the logic and reason of my post. My line of thinking is a sharp break from the dangerous fantasy they are living in.

This is for you brother man twitter.com/bigcheds/status/18...

its a common trend. We saw for example the mayor of a deep red Wisconsin city just announce for Harris and publish an op-Ed, and a couple other in the days before that You hadn’t seen?

Let me put it this way Quoting the betting odds is a big tell :)

And from local people in this thread. I just think it’s kind of shady to exploit the tragedy of other people for political purposes

Im a single issue conservative voter: Rule of Law Choice is clear

Zero movement from a system, to an event of similar magnitude to when HRC fainted on the campaign trail 2 weeks out

If im wrong show me your map. Lots of complaining but few maps

PA early vote wow twitter.com/thirdwaykessler/st...

Democrats also have something like a 500k vote advantage right now overall

Don’t trust the oligarchs do your own research

If PA ends at 55% women Trump would prob lose by 6-8 points

Economy x.com/jasonfurman/status/18516...

Economy x.com/awealthofcs/status/18516...

By saying you agree with him, that makes you look bad

If you think we are bad look at the rest of the world. We literally have the strongest and fastest growing economy in the world, with wages outpacing inflation and 50 year lows in unemployment At some point you might want to consider being more objective

Heres a thread of good bets for easy $$$ on Polymarket Here $1.00 being sold for $.33

Here $1.00 sold for $.32

here $1.00 being sold for $.70

$1.00 being sold for $.47

$1.00 sold for $.71

$1.00 sold for $.74

$1.00 sold for $.84

$1.00 sold for $.09 KH will win popular vote by just over 4 points

Folks if you think team Trump is confident about PA, explain this 🤣🤣🤣🤣 Already making up fake claims about cheating, as if we dont remember him doing the same about 2020

This Trump guy tries to play us all for suckers 24/7 and its not working

Please bookmark so you can laugh at me now, and come back in a week and apologize, asking how I knew.

Does he think we have never read the book "The boy who cried wolf" Imagine Trump expecting anyone to still believe a word he says after 2020 lmao

The irony is his team just got caught tried to cheat in PA, registering Amish people So as always with team Trump, every accusation is a confession

Economy Stop trying to tell me we have a bad economy when by every metric it is the strongest in the world x.com/byHeatherLong/status/185...

www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-... Source

Stop pretending Trump would have been better when he literally drove our economy into a ditch

Same people saying "but but Covid" are blaming Biden for inflation, caused by Covid HAHAHAHAHAHA

Dems may be stupid on social issues but they are far better for the economy. This is no longer a debate

You’re working hard to make a point that I’m not making or arguing with

I mean you can complain that we don’t have a system as good as whatever ideal system you want to make up in your mind, but we still have the best economy in the world and we’re doing so much better than we were under the last administration There’s no way around this fact

The issues you are talking about are the exact same issues I’ve been talking about for 30 years since I learned about them in school Those issues are the same weather in economy is super strong or super weak relative to other countries Right now our economy is super strong… x.com/i/web/status/18516936434...

Another prediction. Trump will underperform other Republicans in each state ballot(split ticket voting) and when Kamala wins there will be a debate about whether Biden would’ve beaten Trump or not given his weak showing I maintain given the strength of the economy and Trump’s… x.com/i/web/status/18517024544...

Many such cases x.com/Schwarzenegger/status/18...

I was told that Biden policies would lead to a recession 100% twitter.com/brewmarkets/status...

and I’ve been pretty clear about my point. No matter where we are in terms of rope the strength or weakness to the rest of the world someone is going to be able to say what you are saying because of structural issues I’m literally making a different point

And there’s a reason why you’re starting to see Harris lead on the economy in polls - Overall We are doing pretty darn good especially compared to the rest of the world We are growing and have Made huge investments in infrastructure and manufacturing over the last few years

Many such cases twitter.com/jacquesapetit/stat...

Yup twitter.com/iansams/status/185...

I posted a thread yesterday of good bets available on Polly market. Harris still below 40% I think that’s easy 2.5x

If you are genuinely interested I’m happy to explain how you are misinterpreting that data just let me know

I’ll say it anyway because I’m a nice guy. 2020 was a pandemic election and you had more people voting early so they would not have to vote in congested rooms on election day Furthermore we have evidence that the GOP is getting their consistent voters to show up and vote… x.com/i/web/status/18520499725...

Feel free to ask if you have any questions and I’ll do my best to answer

Looking like blue wave coming twitter.com/politico/status/18...

I also follow good election reporters/data scientists, check my follows

Early vote update in swing states: x.com/ThirdWayKessler/status/1...

House likely to go D twitter.com/redistrict/status/...

R likely to win Senate twitter.com/redistrict/status/...

Many such cases x.com/ReallyAmerican1/status/1...

Gender gap update twitter.com/thirdwaykessler/st...

PA early vote huge red flag for Trump twitter.com/politico/status/18...

After everything I have done for you through out all the years. Honest consistent accurate information, best in the world even. Ok. Bye

Seriously man get a grip

Harris will probably match that 57% Biden number at worst, but probably does better maybe 58-59%

Hard to see Trump winning GA twitter.com/fridaghitis/status...

I actually recommend you don’t pay attention to polls those are mostly for entertainment Focus on the actual dynamics of the race although that does take a little bit of experience to understand

NV gonna be close though

Republicans need to get their shit together if they ever want to win again

Best guess Harris gets 88 million votes

I heard that in 2020 and 2022 before the election too btw

Most likely FL is Red

Also. Trump killed the border reform bill that all sides wanted. Immigration is a huge vulnerability for him

its honestly hilarious and also sad that in your mind the best retort you had was "what is a woman" Thats really telling on yourself man

Too many republicans on record blaming Trump for killing the border reform bill. That issue is bad for R's now

You are mis-reading this thread/the purpose of my thread

The whole point of this thread is to show that I saw what was coming ahead of time when everyone else was going in the other direction I dont care who you vote for as long as you vote, if you are eligable I want more people to participate

Many people mis-understanding the point of this thread. I am explaining who I think will win based on my analysis, not who I WANT to win. If it looked like Trump was going to win I would be explaining that, and why. x.com/BigCheds/status/18527205...

Most people consider me one of the most accurate in the world on $BTC, but if you look there are plenty of bad calls over the years. Show me what you got

This is a lot of time in NC for a state the Trump campaign claims is not in play x.com/PatrickSvitek/status/185...

Much love for your comments friend

This is all also secondary to my objective analysis of who is going to win. Ive been studying US politics for long enough to remove my personal bias

She has wild enthusiasm right now, near Obama level. Thats about people who are really into her, not that they are against Trump

That sounds liberal to you?

GA early vote x.com/DanteAtkins/status/18527...

RE: poorly run campaign Outsourcing to get out the vote effort to Musk - huge mistake

Basically this

The stuff I posted today is objective analysis showing why she is more likely to win.

RE the election keys and their track record Fwiw I also scored Kamala with 9, matching my view on the overall structure of the race

Fwiw she has a 15 point edge on Trump with favorability and early vote suggest she has PA GA and NC already locked up Tune in Tue PM to see what I’m talking about

Favorability is actually a huge vulnerability for Trump which is why his vice presidential pick was a bit of a blunder

Trumps base of support has never been smaller/weaker

This from the most trusted pollster in Iowa and the most famous of the pre election polls Note momentum swing from Trump to Harris twitter.com/usa_polling/status...

@krugermacro

This tells me that there is a serious chance I am underestimating the size of Harris win

More on this key bellweather twitter.com/mviser/status/1852...

This goes with my theory that Harris get 10% of republican vote nationwide

Significance twitter.com/emmavigeland/statu...

This opens up the question: are FL and OH in play for democrats? I’m not sure but they will likely be close

Not close to a tossup and she has near Obama level enthusiasm. If you can’t see that, that is a massive red flag and reality check

From January of this year twitter.com/bigcheds/status/17...

If you have other questions im happy to explain cheers

*edit. Was +3 Harris. SO 8 points better than what would have been a "good" poll for Harris

You are falling for spin/propaganda. Look at the data

Many such cases twitter.com/thedailybeast/stat...

At what point did you give up trying to be a normal adult?

Not gonna argue with you about if Trump ran a great or bad campaign. Your opinion is your own. Cheers

By the way 3 reasons Im doing this 1) I believe I have an edge, and will be collecting clout after the election 2) This is a service to those of you who bet on elections 3) When Trump loses, he will claim cheating and this thread will show that anyone could have seen it coming

You don't have to agree, im just explaining where I am coming from 🤝

Honestly do not understand your comment. He’s just voting his conscience

Also from a political science standpoint important to point out DJT’s negative favorability is a huge drag. This has been a key part of my thesis for a while The gap between him and Harris is huge, and another reason why he will lose twitter.com/harris_wins/status...

x.com/bigcheds/status/13569935... twitter.com/bigcheds/status/13...

The #1 political analyst in NV just forecast a narrow Harris victory in the state x.com/RalstonReports

People have been waiting for his prediction

It’s already beginning look at this garbage take . twitter.com/bretweinstein/stat...

Trump campaign collapsed pretty hard in the final week so I’m starting to think that my projections too conservative

By the way if you folks think I’m joking look and see how the “Late deciders” voted

Stuff like that garbage truck stunt that backfired

Your tweets are going to age so poorly and I will have fun revisiting them bookmarked

This matches my prediction exactly x.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/18...

Early reports show massive turnout

NV Nevada twitter.com/electproject/statu...

MI Michigan turnout twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/...

No real surprises so far - I will update this map if any of my states are wrong. Normally on election night the Republicans start out strong but then that fades as the votes are counted from big cities. (Red mirage). This is standard. For example people are still in line right… x.com/i/web/status/18540067602...

AP has called NC. I got that wrong twitter.com/ap/status/18540161...

Right now looks bad. I had not prepared myself for this or even something remotely close. Will update in AM Take your shots they are deserved

Haven’t been more confused in my adult life

Honesty have never been more confused. I did not even consider this possibility. His campaign was terrible. She had no much momentum. Ground game. ROE on ballot. More to come later but giant L for me

Congrats to those who called it right. I did not. I will not be defending myself and I deserve all criticism

I can’t explain how confident I was and how stupid I now feel