Odaily星球日报讯 据 CME“美联储观察”：美联储到 11 月降 25 个基点的概率为 96.2%，维持当前利率不变的概率为 3.8%（数据公布前分别为 99%和 1%）。到 12 月维持当前利率不变的概率为 1.1%，累计降息 25 个基点的概率为 29.4%，累计降息 50 个基点的概率为 69.6%（数据公布前分别为 0.5%、22.9%和 76.6%）。（金十）

“小非农”与美国GDP数据公布后，美联储11月降息25BP的概率为96.2%

Odaily Odaily reported that according to CME&#39;s &quot;Fed Watch&quot;: The probability of the Fed cutting 25 basis points by November is 96.2%, and the probability of maintaining the current interest rate unchanged is 3.8% (99% and 1% before the data was released). The probability of maintaining the current interest rate unchanged by December is 1.1%, the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 25 basis points is 29.4%, and the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 50 basis points is 69.6% (0.5%, 22.9% and 76.6% before the data was released). (Jinshi)

After the release of the “small non-farm payrolls” and US GDP data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25BP in November is 96.2%

Odaily Planet Daily reported that the chief economic advisor of Allianz said that when the Federal Reserve expands the rate cut from 25 basis points to 50 basis points, the yield of US Treasuries will not surge. The market did not view this rate cut as a more dovish monetary policy signal, but rather as a driver for the entire yield curve to rise. Some analysts even believe that the 10-year US Treasury yield may further surge to over 5%. (Jinshi)

Allianz Chief Economic Advisor: U.S. bond market reacts abnormally to Fed's move

The US second-quarter economic growth rate has slowed slightly, but consumer spending remains strong. This economic report was released six days before the presidential election, and the economy may be the decisive issue in this election. The stakes could not be higher for the two candidates. Economists tend to believe that Vice President Harris will do better in controlling the deficit and inflation; while voters tend to give Trump a better score on the economy. Torsten Slok, chief economist at <Apollo Global Management>, said the economy is performing very well, which is partly due to the prosperity of artificial intelligence and the government's spending on projects such as the <Inflation Reduction Act>. In addition, many homeowners have locked in favorable mortgage rates when borrowing costs were lower, making them less sensitive to the high interest rates of the past few years. The GDP data should not change the overall direction of the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates last month and is expected to continue to cut interest rates.

US Q3 GDP growth slowed slightly to 2.8%, and the Fed's rate cut pace is not expected to change

The global financial heavyweights gathered at the "Future Investment Initiative" conference in Saudi Arabia seem to suggest that the market's bet on the Federal Reserve's rate cut may have gone too far. When asked whether they believe the Federal Reserve will cut rates twice more this year, none of the panelists, which included representatives from Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Standard Chartered, KKR, Apollo Global Management, and State Street, raised their hands. Most agreed that the Federal Reserve may cut rates once more by the end of 2024. Larry Fink, CEO of <BlackRock>, said at the "Future Investment Initiative" forum in Saudi Arabia that he expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates by at least 25 basis points this year.