Odaily星球日报讯 美国 9 月 PCE 物价指数将于今晚 20：30 公布，据 CME“美联储观察”数据，美联储 11 月降息 25 个基点的概率为 96.1%。市场预计，9 月 PCE 物价指数将环比上涨 0.2%，同比上涨 2.1%，预计核心 PCE 物价指数环比增速由前值的 0.1%上升至 0.3%，同比增速则小幅放缓至 2.6%，为 2021 年 2 月以来的最低水平。

9月PCE物价指数今晚公布，美联储11月降息25个基点的概率报96.1%

Odaily Odaily reported that the US PCE price index for September will be released at 20:30 tonight. According to CME&#39;s &quot;Fed Watch&quot; data, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in November is 96.1%. The market expects that the PCE price index in September will rise by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.1% year-on-year. The core PCE price index is expected to increase from 0.1% in the previous month to 0.3% month-on-month, and the year-on-year growth rate will slow slightly to 2.6%, the lowest level since February 2021.

The September PCE price index will be released tonight, and the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in November is 96.1%.

Odaily Planet Daily Report: According to market forecasts, data to be released by the US Department of Commerce on Wednesday will show that the seasonally adjusted and inflation-adjusted <Gross Domestic Product (GDP)> grew at a robust annualized rate of 3% in the third quarter, unchanged from the previous value. If this expectation materializes, it will mark the 10th consecutive quarter of expansion for the US economy. At the same time, the market also expects the report to show that the <core PCE price index> in the third quarter will slow sharply from the previous 2.8% to 2.1%, approaching the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target. The Federal Reserve uses the PCE price index included in the GDP estimate as its main inflation indicator. Another driver for the Federal Reserve's policy rate cut is inflation, with the core PCE price index in the second quarter likely to be increasingly close to the Federal Reserve's target. Citigroup expects US GDP growth to be lower than expected, at only 2.6%, but expects the inflation indicator for the quarter to reach the 2% target, a figure that may help consolidate the Federal Reserve officials' decision to only cut by 25 basis points next week. (Jinshi)

The market expects the U.S. economy to continue to grow strongly in the third quarter, while inflation is close to or even below the Fed's 2% target.

According to the CME "Fed Watch": the probability of the Fed cutting 25 basis points in November is 96.2%, and the probability of maintaining the current interest rate is 3.8% (previously 99% and 1% respectively). The probability of maintaining the current interest rate in December is 1.1%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 29.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 69.6% (previously 0.5%, 22.9% and 76.6% respectively). (Gold Ten)

After the release of the “small non-farm payrolls” and US GDP data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25BP in November is 96.2%

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