Odaily星球日报讯 斯巴达资本证券公司首席市场经济学家彼得·卡迪罗表示，通胀可能进一步上升的暗示，在今天的数据中得到了基本证实，这里棘手的部分是核心 PCE。这意味着美联储很可能在下次会议上暂停降息。美联储暂停降息的可能性比以往任何时候都大。消费依然强劲，我们已经从其他宏观指标中看到了这一点。我们现在的情况是，经济运行得相当不错，但是通胀仍然是个问题，而且核心 PCE 继续在某种程度上偏高。这是一个令人担忧的问题，这意味着美联储可能在下周暂停降息。（金十）

经济学家：美联储下周可能暂停降息

Odaily Odaily News: Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities, said that the suggestion that inflation may rise further was basically confirmed in today&#39;s data, and the tricky part here is the core PCE. This means that the Fed is likely to pause its rate cuts at the next meeting. The Fed is more likely to pause its rate cuts than ever before. Consumption remains strong, and we have seen this from other macro indicators. What we have now is that the economy is running fairly well, but inflation remains a problem, and core PCE continues to be somewhat high. This is a worrying issue, which means the Fed may pause its rate cuts next week. (Jinshi)

Economist: Fed may pause rate cuts next week

Odaily Planet Daily Report: According to market forecasts, data to be released by the US Department of Commerce on Wednesday will show that the seasonally adjusted and inflation-adjusted <Gross Domestic Product (GDP)> grew at a robust annualized rate of 3% in the third quarter, unchanged from the previous value. If this expectation materializes, it will mark the 10th consecutive quarter of expansion for the US economy. At the same time, the market also expects the report to show that the <core PCE price index> in the third quarter will slow sharply from the previous 2.8% to 2.1%, approaching the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target. The Federal Reserve uses the PCE price index included in the GDP estimate as its main inflation indicator. Another driver for the Federal Reserve's policy rate cut is inflation, with the core PCE price index in the second quarter likely to be increasingly close to the Federal Reserve's target. Citigroup expects US GDP growth to be lower than expected, at only 2.6%, but expects the inflation indicator for the quarter to reach the 2% target, a figure that may help consolidate the Federal Reserve officials' decision to only cut by 25 basis points next week. (Jinshi)

The market expects the U.S. economy to continue to grow strongly in the third quarter, while inflation is close to or even below the Fed's 2% target.

Odaily Planet Daily Report: The US September PCE price index will be released tonight at 20:30. According to the CME "Fed Watch" data, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in November is 96.1%. The market expects that the September PCE price index will rise 0.2% month-on-month and 2.1% year-on-year. The core PCE price index is expected to rise 0.3% month-on-month, down slightly to 2.6% year-on-year, the lowest level since February 2021.

The September PCE price index will be released tonight, and the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in November is 96.1%.

Odaily Planet Daily reported that the chief economic advisor of Allianz said that when the Federal Reserve expands the rate cut from 25 basis points to 50 basis points, the yield of US Treasuries will not surge. The market did not view this rate cut as a more dovish monetary policy signal, but rather as a driver for the entire yield curve to rise. Some analysts even believe that the 10-year US Treasury yield may further surge to over 5%. (Jinshi)