Author: Bru
As the US presidential election day approaches, the crypto digital asset industry is also holding its breath - for the "crypto asset" issue, which is a global hot topic, it is both a clear policy difference between US presidential candidates Trump and the outgoing Biden administration, and a focus of ongoing controversy in the presidential election campaign.
Two Perspectives
Of the two final candidates in the US presidential election, Trump has a very clear view on the crypto digital asset industry and participated in the Bitcoin conference held in Nashville in July 2024, openly expressing his "support". In contrast, the other presidential candidate Harris has a relatively mild stance on the digital asset industry compared to the current Biden administration's strong regulatory approach.
In the campaign process, Trump's policy proposals on digital assets that have had a significant impact on public opinion include:
Establishing a National BTC Reserve: Trump said his administration would "retain all BTC currently held or future acquired by the US government" and become the "core of the national strategic BTC reserve". It is reported that as of October 2023, the US government holds over $5 billion in BTC, mostly from asset forfeitures in criminal cases.
Establishing a Digital Asset Advisory Council: Trump proposed to establish an organization called the "Bitcoin and Crypto Asset Presidential Advisory Council", whose rules will be written by those who love the industry, not those who hate it.
Preventing the Fed from Creating a Central Bank Digital Currency: The development of central bank digital currencies by central banks has become a trend, but the Fed has not yet decided whether to create a fully digitized dollar. Trump publicly opposed this idea several times in 2024. In May 2024, the US House of Representatives passed a bill to prohibit the Fed from creating a digital dollar, but whether this bill will ultimately be legislated still requires a long process of deliberation.
Creating the Crypto Platform World Liberty Financial: Aimed at promoting the widespread application of Stablecoins and decentralized finance. According to public reports, the early whitepaper of this project mentions the launch of a new digital asset called $WLFI, which plans to sell to the public.
Although three years ago, Trump still had a skeptical attitude towards crypto assets and had publicly criticized crypto assets for facilitating illegal activities on social media, since August 2024 he has repositioned himself as a staunch supporter of crypto assets as a presidential candidate.
Harris previously served as Vice President in the current Biden administration. The current US government has taken a strong regulatory approach towards the crypto digital asset industry.
So far, Harris has not issued many statements on the crypto digital asset industry. On September 22, 2024, at a fundraising event in New York City, Harris first mentioned plans to "encourage innovation in technologies like AI and digital assets".
Meanwhile, media reports indicate that Harris stated at an event in Manhattan that she may take a more open stance towards the crypto digital asset industry than the current administration. However, Harris has not yet proposed any specific policy plans.
Additionally, considering the need to compete for potential voters, the Democratic Party leadership behind Harris is working to improve relations with the crypto digital asset industry. A digital asset advocacy organization called Crypto4Harris held a virtual town hall meeting that brought together multiple Democratic members.
Action in the Crypto Market
According to media reports citing data, crypto digital asset industry companies like Coinbase and Ripple have become the dominant corporate donors in the 2024 US presidential election, accounting for 48% of all corporate political donations, nearly half.
According to data from the non-profit organization OpenSecrets, which tracks campaign spending, as of August 2024, the crypto digital asset industry has spent $119 million on political donations, exceeding the total political donations from all other industries.
In this US presidential election, the crypto digital asset industry has long sensed an opportunity, hoping to elect government officials who are supportive of the crypto digital asset industry through the election.
It is reported that since 2010, crypto digital asset industry companies have been actively participating in political elections, with the depth, breadth and scale of their participation second only to fossil fuel companies, making them the second most active industry in US political elections.
A recent report Election 2024 The Role of Crypto released by Grayscale, the issuer of the Ethereum spot ETF, revealed some market insights from the US digital asset industry:
53% of the US voters surveyed have some understanding of crypto assets, up from the 2023 survey.
Regulation can still play an important role in instilling investor confidence in crypto assets - 80% of US voters surveyed believe that regulatory agencies can play a role in managing emerging technologies, and 20% of those surveyed said they would be more likely to hold crypto assets if there were clearer digital asset laws or policies.
40% of US voters surveyed said they are more focused on the presidential candidates' positions on BTC or other crypto assets compared to previous elections.
Two-thirds of US voters surveyed said they would consider the presidential candidates' positions on digital assets before voting, with 56% saying they would be more likely to vote for a candidate who is learning about and understanding digital assets rather than one who is indifferent.
Opposing Voices
The event prediction betting site Polymarket shows that in early October 2024, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris were neck and neck at around 50%, but from late October 2024, Trump's support suddenly surged, reaching 65.5% by October 31, 2024, becoming the focus of election discussions.
Experts responsible for election research have publicly stated that this situation may be due to the enthusiasm of a minority of crypto digital asset industry speculators trying to boost Trump.
Although the influence of the crypto digital asset industry in the political game seems to be growing, the opposition voices against crypto digital assets have never stopped in the US.
Gary Gensler, Chairman of the US Securities and Exchange Commission, stated in a media interview that the crypto digital asset industry is "rife with fraudsters and speculators". He pointed out: "Crypto assets are only a small part of the US and global capital markets, but they could undermine ordinary investors' trust in the capital markets... Global investors have lost too much money because crypto digital asset industry companies have not complied with regulatory requirements."
Crypto-Friendly Now Does Not Mean Crypto-Friendly in 5 Years
Driven by hundreds of millions of dollars in election funds, crypto digital assets have become an important factor in the 2024 US presidential election, influencing not only the presidential candidates but also a large number of voters.
Trump is attracting crypto digital asset supporters through his public positive commitments, while Harris and the Democratic Party are also working hard to keep up, unwilling to give up the substantial election cash flow that can be obtained by supporting the industry. The supporters of the crypto digital asset field, in turn, are trying to exchange support for the election for more favorable regulatory policies for the future development of the industry.
But amidst the clamor, a blog post written by Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin is always worth revisiting, in which he expressed the following views on the relationship between crypto digital assets and politics: 'Bit' must be translated into 'Bit'. 'TRON' must be translated into 'TRON'. 'BTC' must be translated into 'BTC'. 'HT' must be translated into 'HT'. 'OP' must be translated into 'OP'. 'ENS' must be translated into 'ENS'. 'AR' must be translated into 'AR'. 'RON' must be translated into 'RON'. 'ONG' must be translated into 'ONG'.
If you see a politician being friendly to crypto assets, one thing you can do is check their views on crypto assets themselves 5 years ago.
You can also look for their views on related topics in the crypto industry 5 years ago. Specifically, try to find topics where their "support for freedom" and "support for corporations" are inconsistent.
If a politician supports crypto assets, the key question to ask is: are their reasons for doing so correct? Do they have a vision for 21st century technological, political and economic development that is consistent with yours? Do they have a more long-term positive vision beyond just "wanting to defeat other bad tribes"?
If so, that's great: you should support them and make it clear that this is the reason you support them. If not, then either stay completely out of it or find better forces to ally with.
Meanwhile, Vitalik Buterin explicitly opposes the trend of choosing political allegiance based on who "supports crypto", and believes this decision-making approach has a high risk and may go against the original intentions and values that led you to enter the crypto asset field.
As the November 5, 2024 US presidential election approaches, the battle between the two party presidential candidates is becoming increasingly fierce. For the future of digital crypto assets, as Vitalik Buterin has always expressed: the future of digital assets should be a future related to "decentralization", "crypto" is not just about digital assets and blockchain - what we need is not just to support "crypto", but to support those deeper goals.
