BTC's monthly line officially closed at 8:00 this morning, and October did not disappoint the reputation of "Uptober". After breaking below $60,000 again in early October, it continued to rise, and this time we saw a sustained upward trend.
On October 30, BTC had a bullish charge night, and when the market was hoping to break through the previous high, BTC ended the charge just $130 below the previous high, and after a narrow range oscillation at the high for two days, with the release of the PCE data, the market's expectation of Trump's successful presidential election receded, and BTC, US stocks, and gold fell in sync, with Trump's media company even hitting the circuit breaker.
Many investment bank analysts pointed out that if BTC effectively breaks through and consolidates above $69,000, it would be proof of breaking out of the 8-month oscillation cycle and the start of a new uptrend. Now, can this view be applicable? Let's see how the traders decide.
Technical Analysis Camp
As I said, BTC can test 60-70k (retest) before another bullish rebound, and a successful retest can guide another wave of bullish momentum towards 80k
The reference cycle is 4H. Currently, it has fallen to the 68950 area and temporarily stopped the decline, but there has not yet been a green candle close confirmation in the 68950 support area for the next segment. If this support level is broken, it will directly look down to the 66150 and 65170 areas.
@laban_li believes that this is the resonance after the deep sea super crab is completed, and this wave of decline is relatively rapid, the trend is still downward, and left-side entry is more risky, you can try with a stop loss, but it is still recommended to enter the right side more stable
The previously predicted 75k was a prediction 2 months ago, and the 73500 top of this wave is actually not much different, and it is very likely to be the recent small top.
Data Analysis Camp
All exchanges are selling, the spot market supply is relatively firm and obvious, but in the futures market, CME has been selling all the way, and Binance and OKX have seen a significant reduction in supply after the US stock market close, and a small amount of buy the dips force has started to appear;
The major option players have entered the market again and continued to be Longing, at 10 a.m., there was a buy order of 1000 positions for the March expiration 85000, with a premium of about 98 BTC, $7.1 million
The 85000 price level has seen three major Longing buy-ins from the price of 61000 in early October, with a cumulative premium of nearly $15 million and 2000 positions.
Based on the order book analysis, it is believed that there is a buy order here and the correction is basically over.
From on-chain data analysis
STH, short time holder BTC short-term holders
LTH, long time holder BTC long-term holders
On 10/29, STH sold 232,000 BTC, LTH sold 15,000 BTC;
On 10/30, STH sold 251,000 BTC, LTH sold 18,000 BTC;
On 10/31, STH sold 207,000 BTC, LTH sold 11,000 BTC;
It can be seen that:
1. The selling pressure from 10/28 to 10/30 mainly came from the "short-term profit-taking" position, and the selling pressure on 31st mainly came from the short-term "bag-holding position";
2. The 29th and 30th were an accelerated distribution process, including both LTH and STH. By the 31st, the selling pressure began to weaken.
3. Continuing to observe the data to see if the deceleration or acceleration of distribution is a basis for short-term judgment.
4. Currently, the average cost of STH is around $64,000, and as long as it does not break this level, we believe the trend remains unchanged.
Macro Analysis Camp
In terms of geopolitics:
The focus of international geopolitical issues is still on the Israel-Iran front. Currently, the incident of Netanyahu modifying his son's wedding has occurred, and Iranian leader Khamenei has inspected the border, with both sides posturing. This is a point to watch, but personally, I expect that there is unlikely to be an attack before the US election.
On the Russia-Ukraine front, the US has publicly stated that due to North Korea's deployment of troops to the battlefield, there is a high possibility that soldiers from a third country will support Ukraine and participate in the Russia-Ukraine war, which is the US's way of putting pressure on Russia.
On the North Korea-South Korea front, North Korea test-fired an ICBM into the East Sea, causing regional tensions, and the US has publicly condemned and stated that it was not notified before the test.
Russia-Ukraine is a normalized issue, North Korea-South Korea is a provocative event, and Israel-Iran is the "surprise" that the risk market should be most concerned about at the moment. Although many are optimistic that Trump can solve these problems, the election has not yet taken place, and even if it does, the transfer of power to Trump will still have to wait until January next year.
In terms of stablecoins:
The on-chain stablecoin market cap increased by $300 million, reaching $177.3 billion, with some of the inflow funds and some of the on-chain funds remaining after leaving the market.
USDT: Official website data shows 120.573 billion, an increase of 0.69 billion compared to yesterday, with a small inflow of funds;
USDC: The data website shows an increase of 2.05, accompanied by a decrease in trading volume, indicating the possibility of capital inflow.
BTC has experienced a volume contraction after the rise of the past two days, the selling pressure has decreased, and the price has stabilized, which may lead to a further breakthrough in the price, which is good news.
Although many people are shouting that the altcoin season is coming, looking at the trading volume activity, the buyers and sellers are still active, and the volume contraction is not significant, the sentiment is still not optimistic enough.
The optimistic start of the altcoins still needs the stabilization of BTC after refreshing the historical high.
Welcome to join the official BlockBeats community:
Telegram subscription group: https://t.me/theblockbeats
Telegram discussion group: https://t.me/BlockBeats_App
Twitter official account: https://twitter.com/BlockBeatsAsia
