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Non-farm employment data analysis:
Bitcoin has become particularly eye-catching in the gloom of the non-farm employment data falling short of expectations. In the recent series of economic data changes, the volatility of BTC price fluctuations has been particularly severe.
Since falling below $69,000 on November 1, Bitcoin (BTC) has embarked on a turbulent journey. Behind this volatility is the market volatility caused by the shocking US employment data. Especially after the release of the non-farm employment data, the BTC price began to show a clear rebound trend.
According to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro, when the non-farm employment data was far lower than expected - only 12,000 new jobs were added, while 106,000 were expected - the market reaction was violent. Along with the decrease in employment data, the number of jobs in September and August also saw a significant downward revision, these figures all reveal the weakness of the US labor market.
"This is the lowest number of jobs added in the US since July 2021," wrote trading resource The Kobeissi Letter in its analysis. Kobeissi further predicted that given the current economic situation, the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates by 0.25% at its upcoming November 7 meeting. This prediction is supported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool, and the market's expectations for this have also been growing stronger.
Against this backdrop, the US dollar index (DXY) suffered a heavy blow after the data release. Although it briefly fell to 103.6, it subsequently rebounded. This indicates that the market's concerns about the economic outlook are gradually intensifying.
For the cryptocurrency market, crypto trader, analyst and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe pointed out in his report that the non-farm employment data result is the worst since January 2021. He predicted that with further weakening of the labor market, the cryptocurrency market will see a reversal.
Bitcoin's performance analysis yesterday
Bitcoin's performance yesterday was highly volatile, with fierce tug-of-war between bulls and bears. The daily chart rebounded after touching the 68,800 support level, but the process was like a roller coaster, with repeated tug-of-war between bulls and bears, which was truly confusing. From the overall daily chart, it is currently still in a range-bound consolidation state, and although there has been a pullback after the previous upward move, the overall trend structure has not changed. From the analysis of the low points of multiple downward tests, the overall trend is showing an upward trajectory, but the resistance above is strong, especially the pressure above the 72,000 level is obvious, and if the daily chart can stabilize during the rebound, the price may still have the possibility of hitting new highs.
The 4-hour chart presents a converging triangle consolidation, with the range gradually narrowing and the trend oscillating bullishly. The recent multiple downward tests have been followed by upward attacks, but without an effective breakthrough of the range or stabilization of the resistance, one cannot blindly be long.
In the short term, the rebound momentum after the midnight retracement is still there, and it is expected to continue attacking the 72,000 level during the day. Last night we saw a high retracement, so after a retracement during the day, we can consider going long. For operations, it is suggested to go long on Bitcoin in the 68,500 - 69,000 area, with a target of around 71,000 - 72,000!
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