Master Ye Talks About Hot Topics:
First, let's talk about last night's non-farm data. Although it didn't reach the negative level predicted by Bloomberg, the 12,000 new jobs still didn't surprise me. Here's my understanding:
The 12,000 new jobs may seem a bit shaky, but Bloomberg's estimate was exaggerated, and the market was already prepared. Factors like the super-strong hurricane and the Boeing strike made the October data not reflect an economic collapse, but rather made everyone more optimistic about rate cuts.
A 4.1% unemployment rate and a 0.4% month-on-month increase in hourly wages are simply stable and happy, relieving the panic of recession. The October manufacturing PMI also exceeded expectations, indicating that the US economy still has some unrealistic resilience.
The extremely low new job growth, the unemployment rate in line with expectations, and the manufacturing PMI exceeding expectations have formed a combination punch, which not only dispelled the gloom of recession, but also brought the illusion of rate cuts.
In addition, these data may also calm the market's anxiety about Trump's victory. The US dollar and US bond yields are desperately resisting pressure. The market's attention will be shifted from the election to the economy and inflation, but the final election result is the truth, which will determine the future policy and market direction.
In the end, what I conclude is that the Fed's data is basically not used to see the truth, but is like our way of running around, a signal for the major capital groups to see.
And this non-farm employment data is likely to be significantly revised downward later, just as my analysis said the other day, I really don't want to perform anymore.
My medium and long-term personal views on Bitcoin and Ethereum have been analyzed in the previous two articles. As for the US election, no matter who takes office, the impact on the crypto market will be limited. And when the election is approaching, it is also the time for capital to flee.
This means that a large amount of capital will flee from the US stock market, which will indirectly lead to the collapse of the US stock market. If the Nasdaq plunges, just imagine what kind of connection Bitcoin will have? The US dollar index will also have a positive impact on Bitcoin, no doubt.
And if you are worried that the bull market is over, what I want to tell you is that the change of the bull and bear cycle has always been the rule of the market, and all things have their own rhythm of operation, the financial market is especially so.
Currently, we are in the late stage of the bull market, so instead of worrying whether the bull market will disappear, it is better to learn how to seize the opportunity to make money in this bull market?
Master Ye Looks at the Trend:
Although Bitcoin expanded its upward momentum yesterday, it seemed to be rebounding, but because last night's non-farm data was too favorable, coupled with the US dollar index plummeting, Bitcoin rose too slowly after the announcement, and when something is suspicious, there must be a trick, causing Bitcoin to plummet.
Since it has reached the highest point, it can be seen as a profit-taking sell-off, but the demand from institutional investors is still increasing, so the current view can be maintained that it will rebound in the short term.
Resistance Levels:
First Resistance: 70500
Second Resistance: 70000
Support Levels:
First Support: 69200
Second Support: 68800
Reviewing yesterday, I pre-embedded a long position around 68800, with a target of 69600 to 70100, which was all achieved. And the pre-embedded short position from 71500 to 71800, with a target of 70100 to 69600, was also fully realized.
Trading Suggestions for Today:
Today's trading can maintain a short-term rebound view, and adopt a conservative strategy in trading. There are more sideways movements on weekends, so it is not easy to enter the market in an uncertain range, and it is better to adopt a more observant trading strategy.
11.2 Master Ye's Swing Trading Preset Orders:
I won't pre-embed anything today, just play around the 69200 to 70000 range by yourself. If you have any questions, you can leave me a message at any time, and I'll say it again, remember to strictly bring stop-loss and take-profit.
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