Author: 1912212.eth, Foresight News
On October 30, Bitcoin failed to set a new all-time high. After rising to over $73,600, it was just $100 away from $73,777, but unfortunately, the follow-up funds lacked strength. After continuous fluctuations and consolidation, it ultimately slid down. Around 9 pm on October 31, BTC accelerated its decline, briefly dipping to around $68,800, and has now fallen back to around $69,500.
ETH also experienced a significant decline after rising above $2,700, dropping to around $2,500 at the lowest, giving back the gains of the previous few days. Altcoins saw a general decline.
In terms of contract data, $276 million was liquidated in 24 hours, with $247 million in long positions being liquidated.
Why was Bitcoin unable to break its all-time high? How will the market perform going forward?
Harris' Lead in Swing States Increases Uncertainty Before the US Election
The 2022 US presidential election will officially begin on November 5, and the market often sees significant volatility around this time.
Reviewing the BTC market performance on the 2020 US election day, the crypto market saw a decline in the previous two days, then rose on the day the results were announced, followed by another two-day decline, and then a sustained upward trend.
Additionally, according to a report by Forbes, a recent poll shows that Harris is leading Trump by a slim 1% margin. In the seven key swing states that could determine the final election winner, Harris is leading Trump 49% to 48%, a change from a week ago when Trump led Harris 50% to 46%.
This shift further increases the uncertainty of the election outcome. US stocks opened lower and the decline widened, with tech stocks, chip stocks, and AI concept stocks also experiencing a collective plunge.
However, according to Polymarket data, Trump's probability of winning is significantly higher than Harris.
Some funds, out of caution, have chosen to withdraw and wait, pending the final outcome of the US election.
Future Market Outlook
After the Bitcoin halvings in 2012, 2016, and 2020, the fourth quarter investment returns have performed well, at 97.7%, 58.17%, and 168.02%, respectively. In November 2016, the return rate was 5.42%, and in November 2020, it was 42.95%. The return rate this month is still worth looking forward to.
It is worth noting that Bitcoin's 7.35% gain in September this year was the best historical performance, and Bitcoin has always risen to the end of the year after gaining in September.
CZ Hints at a Bull Market in 2025
In an interview at the Dubai Binance Blockchain Week main venue, CZ stated that he cannot predict the future, but he can analyze history. From a historical perspective, Bitcoin has experienced a very clear four-year cycle. 2013 and 2017 were bull markets. But in fact, 2012 was a "recovery year", and many people did not trace back that far. 2016 was also a "recovery year", and 2017 then saw a meteoric rise. 2020 was similarly a "recovery year", and 2021 was a bull market.
So based on the current analysis, 2024 should also be a "recovery year", and what will happen next year is unclear, but in the long run, the outlook for the entire industry remains very optimistic.
Standard Chartered Analyst: Trump's Victory Will Help Bitcoin Reach $125,000 by the End of the Year
Geoff Kendrick, Head of Global Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered, stated that before the US presidential election on November 5, Bitcoin prices may see a correction, and volatility is expected to increase in the coming days. Due to traders choosing to take profits and close positions before the election results, the possibility of Bitcoin breaking above the historical high of $73,700 before the US election is decreasing.
Geoff Kendrick added that if the Republican Party (Trump) achieves a landslide victory in the US Congress, Bitcoin prices will experience greater volatility, which could drive Bitcoin to $125,000 by the end of the year and trigger a new round of Altcoin frenzy.
