Author: BitpushNews
On Thursday, the U.S. Department of Labor released the latest Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report, with the September core PCE price index up 2.7% year-over-year, higher than the expected 2.6%, and the September PCE price index up 2.1% year-over-year, the lowest level since early 2021, slightly above the Federal Reserve's 2% target.
After the data release, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury (TNX) briefly rose to 4.33%, and the financial markets fell.
At the close, the three major U.S. indexes fell sharply, with the S&P 500 index, Dow Jones index, and Nasdaq index down 1.86%, 0.90%, and 2.76%, respectively.
Bitpush data shows that Bit fell below the $72,000 support level around midday, then fell below $70,000, with the Bit trading price at $70,452 as of the time of writing, down nearly 3% in 24 hours.
Altcoins fell across the board, with SOL falling below $170, BNB falling below $580, and a drop of over 3% in 24 hours. The current total cryptocurrency market capitalization is $2.34 trillion, with Bit's market share at 59%.
Although the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)'s Fed Watcher tool shows that the market still generally expects the last two FOMC meetings of 2024 to cut rates by 25 basis points, investors remain cautious ahead of the U.S. presidential election.
Trump's Winning Odds Decline
Data from the crypto betting platform Polymarket shows that Trump's chances of winning have dropped from 67% two days ago to 63%, while Democratic candidate Kamala Harris's chances have risen from 33% to 36%.
Meanwhile, the stock price of Trump's media technology group (DJT) has plummeted 34% over the past three days, while DJT's stock price rose 352% last month.
Brian Rudick, head of research at cryptocurrency trading firm GSR, pointed out that "since Trump started accepting digital assets in May, the correlation between Trump's election victory chances and the Bit price has only been 25-35%." However, he said this correlation may increase as the election day approaches.
Has 'Uptober' Been Realized?
Looking at the overall performance this month, Bit plunged to a low of $58,855 on October 10th, but then embarked on a rebound, rising to near its all-time high, with a 30-day gain of about 16.08% currently. According to market analyst Nagato, a closing price below $71,400 this month would mean "failure".
In an article on X, he wrote: "Bit still has some time before the monthly close, which could become one of the most important closes in Bit's history. $71,400 is the bottom line. If it closes above that level, it will further validate 'Uptober'."
TradingView analyst TradingShot pointed out that as the month is about to end, unless BTC falls $7,000 in the next few hours, it will close in the green, saying: "This will be the second consecutive green monthly candle since March."
Analysts say: "This prolonged 7-month consolidation period is not unfamiliar to Bit, as it is common to see multiple consecutive non-green monthly candles during the accumulation phase in a bull market."
TradingShot emphasized: "So far in the current bull market, we have experienced three such phases (including March 2024), and once the market has two consecutive green monthly candles, a rebound will occur. The 2019-2021 bull market had three such consecutive green monthly candles, and a very clear accumulation phase, while the 2015-2018 bull market had countless such instances. From the multi-year chart above, it is clear that when the market has two consecutive green monthly candles, this has always been a good buy signal."
