PANews 11月3日消息，下周美国大选迎终极之战或引发核弹级预警，美元多头的子弹“上满膛”，随着近4年来最差的非农落地，下周美联储降息25个基点的预期接近全部打满。下周市场焦点包括美国大选、美联储利率决议和英国央行利率决议等，下周二开始美国将举行2024年总统大选。许多主要民调仍显示，特朗普和哈里斯势均力敌，以下是新的一周里值得重点关注的宏观市场要点：
周一，法国/德国/欧元区10月制造业PMI终值；
周二09:45，中国10月财新服务业PMI；
周三，法国/德国/欧元区10月服务业PMI终值、欧元区9月PPI月率；
周三07:50，日本央行公布9月货币政策会议纪要；
周三21:30，美国财政部公布新一季的发债计划；
周三22:45，美国10月标普全球服务业PMI终值；23:00，美国10月全球供应链压力指数；
周四21:30，美国至11月2日当周初请失业金人数；23:00，美国9月批发销售月率；
周五03:00，美联储公布利率决议；03:30，美联储主席鲍威尔召开货币政策新闻发布会；
美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）数据显示，对冲基金和经理在美国大选投票前积累了180亿美元的美元多头头寸。目前华尔街的策略师普遍认为，特朗普承诺征关税至少在短期内会支撑美元。美国银行策略师迈克尔•哈特内特表示，如果特朗普赢得大选引发美股反弹，投资者应该考虑抛售。反之，如果哈里斯胜选，投资者应逢低买入。花旗亦认为，美股回撤时机已经成熟，如果共和党大获全胜，投资者就该撤离。瑞银认为，如果特朗普获胜，黄金价格将更快地接近2900美元的目标，而如果哈里斯获胜，黄金价格可能会暂时下跌至2600-2700美元。
周五23:00，美国11月一年期通胀率预期初值、美国11月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值。

PANews 11月3日消息，下周美国大选迎终极之战或引发核弹级预警，美元多头的子弹“上满膛”，随着近4年来最差的非农落地，下周美联储降息25个基点的预期接近全部打满。下周市场焦点包括美国大选、美联储利率决议和英国央行利率决议等，下周二开始美国将举行2024年总统大选。许多主要民调仍显示，特朗普和哈里斯势均力敌，以下是新的一周里值得重点关注的宏观市场要点：周一，法国/德国/欧元区10月制造业PMI终值；周二09:45，中国10月财新服务业PMI；周三，法国/德国/欧元区10月服务业PMI终值、欧元区9月PPI月率；周三07:50，日本央行公布9月货币政策会议纪要；周三21:30，美国财政部公布新一季的发债计划；周三22:45，美国10月标普全球服务业PMI终值；23:00，美国10月全球供应链压力指数；周四21:30，美国至11月2日当周初请失业金人数；23:00，美国9月批发销售月率；周五03:00，美联储公布利率决议；03:30，美联储主席鲍威尔召开货币政策新闻发布会；美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）数据显示，对冲基金和经理在美国大选投票前积累了180亿美元的美元多头头寸。目前华尔街的策略师普遍认为，特朗普承诺征关税至少在短期内会支撑美元。美国银行策略师迈克尔•哈特内特表示，如果特朗普赢得大选引发美股反弹，投资者应该考虑抛售。反之，如果哈里斯胜选，投资者应逢低买入。花旗亦认为，美股回撤时机已经成熟，如果共和党大获全胜，投资者就该撤离。瑞银认为，如果特朗普获胜，黄金价格将更快地接近2900美元的目标，而如果哈里斯获胜，黄金价格可能会暂时下跌至2600-2700美元。周五23:00，美国11月一年期通胀率预期初值、美国11月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值。

下周宏观展望：美国大选迎终极之战，美联储降息25基点预期接近全部打满

PANews, November 3 news, the final battle of the US election next week may trigger a nuclear-level warning, the bullets of the US dollar bulls are "fully loaded", and with the worst non-farm payrolls in nearly 4 years, the expectation of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed next week is almost fully priced in. The market focus next week includes the US election, the Fed's interest rate decision, and the Bank of England's interest rate decision. The 2024 US presidential election will begin on Tuesday. Many major polls still show that Trump and Harris are evenly matched. Here are the key macroeconomic market highlights to watch in the coming week:
Monday, final October manufacturing PMI for France/Germany/Eurozone;
Tuesday 09:45, China's Caixin October services PMI;
Wednesday, final October services PMI for France/Germany/Eurozone, September PPI MoM for the Eurozone;
Wednesday 07:50, Bank of Japan releases minutes of September monetary policy meeting;
Wednesday 21:30, US Treasury to announce new quarterly borrowing plans;
Wednesday 22:45, final October S&P Global US services PMI; 23:00, US October global supply chain pressure index;
Thursday 21:30, US initial jobless claims for the week ending November 2; 23:00, US September wholesale sales MoM;
Friday 03:00, Fed announces interest rate decision; 03:30, Fed Chair Powell holds a monetary policy press conference;
CFTC data shows that hedge funds and managers accumulated $18 billion in long US dollar positions ahead of the US election. Wall Street strategists generally believe that Trump's promised tariffs will support the US dollar at least in the short term. Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett said that if Trump wins the election and triggers a stock market rally, investors should consider selling. Conversely, if Harris wins, investors should buy on dips. Citi also believes that the US stock market is ripe for a pullback, and if the Republicans win big, investors should withdraw. UBS believes that if Trump wins, gold prices will reach the $2,900 target faster, while if Harris wins, gold prices may temporarily fall to $2,600-$2,700.
Friday 23:00, preliminary November 1-year US inflation rate expectation, preliminary November University of Michigan consumer sentiment index.

PANews reported on November 3 that the final battle of the US election next week may trigger a nuclear-level warning, and the bullets of the US dollar bulls are "fully loaded". With the worst non-farm payrolls in nearly 4 years, the expectation of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week is almost fully priced in. The market focus next week includes the US election, the Fed's interest rate decision, and the Bank of England's interest rate decision. The 2024 US presidential election will begin on Tuesday. Many major polls still show that Trump and Harris are evenly matched. Here are the key macroeconomic market highlights to watch in the coming week:Monday, final October manufacturing PMI for France/Germany/Eurozone;Tuesday 09:45, China's Caixin October services PMI;Wednesday, final October services PMI for France/Germany/Eurozone, September PPI MoM for the Eurozone;Wednesday 07:50, Bank of Japan releases minutes of September monetary policy meeting;Wednesday 21:30, US Treasury to announce new quarterly borrowing plans;Wednesday 22:45, final October S&P Global US services PMI; 23:00, October Global Supply Chain Pressure Index for the US;Thursday 21:30, US initial jobless claims for the week ending November 2; 23:00, September wholesale sales MoM for the US;Friday 03:00, Fed announces interest rate decision; 03:30, Fed Chair Powell holds a monetary policy press conference;CFTC data shows that hedge funds and managers have accumulated $18 billion in long US dollar positions ahead of the US election. Wall Street strategists generally believe that Trump's promise to impose tariffs will support the US dollar at least in the short term. Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett said that if Trump wins the election and triggers a stock market rally, investors should consider selling. Conversely, if Harris wins, investors should buy on dips. Citi also believes that the US stock market is ripe for a pullback, and if the Republicans win big, investors should withdraw. UBS believes that if Trump wins, gold prices will reach the $2,900 target faster, while if Harris wins, gold prices may temporarily fall to $2,600-$2,700.Friday 23:00, preliminary November 1-year inflation rate expectation and preliminary November Michigan consumer sentiment index for the US.

Next week's macro outlook: The US election faces the final battle, and the Fed's expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut are almost fully met

Here is the English translation, with the content inside <> not translated:

Bitcoin breaks below $69,000 again
Over $102 million in liquidations across the network in the past 24 hours
The probability of a 75 basis point rate hike by the Fed reaches 99%

The U.S. presidential election is set to officially arrive on November 5th local time, and with many market investors betting on a Trump victory, related concept stocks and Bitcoin have been on the rise. However, Citi analysts recently believe that the Trump trade may have reached a point of profit-taking.
Citi points out: The Trump trade performed very strongly in October, but they now see potential gains have diminished, and the risk-reward...

Profit taking in the “Trump trade”? Bitcoin falls below $69,000 again, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision will hit next week

According to the <ChainCatcher> message, the latest data released by the United States on Wednesday showed that the GDP growth rate in the third quarter slowed slightly and fell short of expectations, while the ADP employment data, known as the "mini non-farm", far exceeded expectations, reaching the highest level in more than a year. The data was mixed, reflecting the continued uncertainty in the US economy. According to 4E monitoring, US stocks rose across the board in early trading, but then plummeted, with the Nasdaq falling 0.56%, the Dow Jones falling 0.22%, and the S&P 500 falling 0.33%, with most of the "Seven Sisters of Technology" and AI concept stocks declining. The cryptocurrency market saw a Trump trade boost, with Bitcoin retreating after approaching its all-time high, currently hovering around $72,245, down 0.23%, while Ethereum rose 0.71% to $2,652. In the foreign exchange and commodity markets, the US dollar index briefly rose to a intraday high of 104.44 but then turned lower, closing down 0.17%, as the market lowered expectations of a significant rate cut by the European Central Bank in December, and the euro rose 0.35% against the US dollar. The uncertainty surrounding the US election and the instability of geopolitics have continued to support gold prices as investors seek defensive positions, with spot gold reaching a new all-time high on Wednesday, closing up 0.43%. US EIA crude oil inventories unexpectedly fell, and there were reports that OPEC+ may delay its oil production increase plan, leading international oil prices to close higher on Wednesday, with WTI crude oil up 2.31% and Brent up 2.3%. The latest data shows that the US economic growth rate unexpectedly slowed, with inflation and consumption higher than expected. The October non-farm payroll report, which is more comprehensive and closely watched, will be released on Friday, and the market generally expects the Fed's rate cut pace will not change, with a further 25 basis point cut at the November 7-8 meeting. Meanwhile, the US election is entering a critical stage, with the latest polls showing voters tend to give Trump better scores on the economy, and global investors are betting on Trump winning the election next week, but regardless of the outcome, the market is expected to see greater volatility as election day approaches. <eeee.com> is a financial trading platform that supports cryptocurrencies, stock indices, bulk gold, foreign exchange and other assets, and has recently launched a USDT stablecoin wealth management product with an annualized yield of 5.5%, providing investors with a potential hedging option. 4E reminds you to pay attention to market volatility risks and allocate assets reasonably.

4E: US GDP growth in the third quarter was lower than expected, and the "small non-farm" was stronger than expected

Market conditions often see significant fluctuations around the time of the <U.S. elections>.